تفسير الأسبوع الأول من السنة لبيتكوين: تحسين الهيكل بعد تقليل الرافعة المالية، ماذا يحكي سوق الخيارات؟

【Block Rhythm】During the week of January 9th, Bitcoin completed the deep deleveraging from year-end, entering 2026 with a cleaner capital structure. From on-chain data, several signals are improving: profit-taking pressure has noticeably eased, ETF flows have turned back to net inflows, futures open interest has stopped falling and rebounded, and institutional participation is gradually recovering.

The most interesting is the movement in the options market. In Q1 expiry contracts, traders are clustering to buy call options in the 95,000-100,000 USD range, while market makers have actually become net short in the same zone — this offsetting relationship is quite subtle, as market makers’ hedging operations could provide upward momentum during rallies. Implied volatility is in a phase of low-level recovery, and skew is continuously correcting toward bullish bias, all of which are positive signals for bulls.

Some analysts believe it’s now more like an “early stage where structure is improving but sentiment isn’t yet euphoric.” If Bitcoin price can hold steady in the short-term holder cost zone, upside elasticity is expected to gradually release. In this phase, many traders are adjusting their asset allocation, preparing for the fluctuations ahead.