Recently, I summarized some of the pitfalls I've encountered and found that many people lose money not because they can't predict the market, but because they make simple things complicated. Let me first talk about my understanding of a trading system. In fact, there are just three elements: yourself, the market trend (( mainly focus on BTC and ETH )), and your trusted strategy source. What's the core? Don't fight the market. Find a reliable person and just follow their approach. Why do some people always like to take on high-difficulty operations? Looking at a dozen indicators, switching methods every day, afraid to miss any fluctuation—what's the result? When a real big trend comes, they hesitate. This approach is basically slow suicide. On the flip side, what does low-difficulty trading look like? Stick to one strategy, don't open positions recklessly, and only take trades you're confident in each day. No need to overanalyze; the key is to follow instructions. In the long run, it's often these people who can profit steadily. Let’s talk about capital management. Your principal has an upper limit; at most, you can lose 100%, right? But in theory, your returns can be unlimited. Here’s the issue: once you actually lose 100%, no matter how bullish the market gets afterward, it has nothing to do with you. Even worse, when you lose 50% of your principal, how much do you need to earn back to break even? The answer is 100%! You need to double your remaining funds just to get even—the difficulty skyrockets. So without capital management, even if you encounter a guaranteed winning situation, you might still ruin a good hand. Finally, let’s talk about position management. Why are you in the market at all? To put it simply, it’s to make money…( to be continued )

**Evening Market Scan on December 2** (as of 19:40) Major coins showed mixed performance today: Bitcoin held near $87,370, edging up 1.08% on the day; Ethereum looked a bit weak, at $2,825, down 0.65%. BNB was the standout today, surging to $843, up 2.31%—leading the majors. Dogecoin and SOL were flat, fluctuating at $0.1369 (+0.17%) and $128 (+0.78%), respectively. **Grayscale Drops a Bombshell Prediction: The Real Peak Is in 2026** A notable asset manager, Grayscale Research, just released an interesting report—they believe Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high in 2026, and specifically took aim at the long-standing "four-year halving cycle" theory. Their reasoning: the game has changed. Institutional money is now concentrated in ETFs and corporate balance sheets, not like the old days when retail investors battled it out on exchanges. Industry bigwig Tom Lee (BitMine CEO) is also in this camp, but even more bullish—he thinks we’ll see new highs as early as January next year. These analysts generally feel the macro environment is still friendly: possible rate cuts + both parties pushing crypto legislation, all signs point to a smooth road for the market. Although BTC has indeed dropped 32% since early October, Grayscale says this kind of 25% level... (original text ends here, core information fully retained)

Recently, the rise in US Treasury yields basically means the interest on guaranteed profits has increased. Think about it: if you can just buy US Treasuries and earn interest lying down, who would still want to risk their neck in the crypto space? Quite a bit of capital has quietly withdrawn, opting for safer returns, so naturally the crypto market is being drained. What’s even more interesting is that gold is also pulling back. In the past, when everyone panicked, at least Bitcoin could serve as a backup hedge. Now, not even gold is in demand. What does that tell you? The market isn’t panicked at all—everyone thinks traditional safe assets like US Treasuries are more attractive. The so-called hedging property of crypto is basically ignored right now. At this point, everyone is waiting for US economic data and the Fed’s stance. Who would dare to make big moves in times like this? Everyone’s holding back, so naturally market volatility is low. If the Fed sends a tightening signal, like hinting at a rate hike, the crypto space will have an even tougher time; but if there’s a sign of easing, capital will come flooding back in like sharks smelling blood, and prices will shoot up. Ultimately, we’re in a wait-and-see period—whoever moves first could be the first to get burned.