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A quick look at the Solana DEX competition landscape: Raydium, Jupiter, Orca, and Meteora, who has more potential?
Original author: vik0nchain, Cyber Capital researcher
Original text compilation: Luffy, Foresight News
Reprint: Luke, Mars Finance
By the fourth quarter of 2024 to early 2025, the competitive landscape of Solana's DeFi ecosystem gradually emerged, mainly reflected in the rise of aggregators, abstract user experience (UX), major integrations, and evolving token economic standards. Although these changes were not initially apparent, recent data has clearly shown impacts, particularly in the redistribution of liquidity, fee generation, and changes in market share.
This analysis delves into the liquidity positioning of the major decentralized exchanges (DEX) based on Solana - Raydium, Jupiter, Orca, and Meteora, focusing on their advantages, disadvantages, and potential investment impact relative to existing and emerging competitors.
Investment Analysis Framework
Raydium (RAY) is optimistic about the future: deep liquidity and repurchase advantages
Liquidity and trading volume dominance: Raydium remains the most liquid and frequently used decentralized exchange in the Solana ecosystem. Over 55% of trades routed through Jupiter settle on Raydium. In addition, Raydium, along with the long-standing leader Uniswap, holds a market-leading position among all decentralized exchanges on all blockchains, sometimes even surpassing Uniswap, with its fully diluted valuation (FDV) and market capitalization only about one-third of Uniswap's.
Raydium/Uniswap fully diluted valuation ratio: 28.72828346 billion USD / 91.02379018 billion USD = 31.5%
Raydium/Uniswap Market Cap Ratio: 15.05604427 billion USD / 54.65824531 billion USD = 27.5%
Pump.fun integration: Key partnerships, including integration with Pump.fun, have increased trading volume and protocol stickiness due to all new Meme pools migrating to Raydium.
Token Buyback: Raydium's 12% fee buyback program has repurchased more than 10% of the total supply of tokens, significantly alleviating selling pressure. It is worth noting that the amount repurchased by Raydium far exceeds that held by centralized exchanges.
Jupiter (JUP) outlook optimistic: market-leading aggregator
Liquidity aggregation advantage: Jupiter, as the dominant aggregator of Solana, plays a crucial role.
Acquisition of Moonshot: Acquiring Moonshot enables Jupiter to integrate deposit/withdrawal channels within its decentralized exchange, enhancing competitiveness by simplifying the user experience.
Unlocking pressure: Due to token unlocking, Jupiter faces a 127% increase in its supply, bringing mid-term inflation risks. Although a buyback mechanism was recently announced, the internal estimated annual buyback rate is 2.4%, which provides some support for the token economy, but has limited impact in competition with Raydium.
Business model: Due to the fact that the aggregator fee is charged on top of the base protocol fee, in a low-fee environment, the aggregator model faces challenges.
Lack of competitors: As the first aggregator on Solana, Jupiter lacks strong competitors.
Meteora looks promising: the rising liquidity aggregator
Aggregate Liquidity Efficiency: Unlike independent decentralized exchanges, aggregators like Meteora inherently have lower downside risk and more stable capital efficiency.
Token issuance catalyst: The successful issuance of Meteora tokens may change liquidity preferences and provide long-term support for its market positioning. Unlike industry LP leader Kamino, MET points are not publicly displayed on the user interface. In addition, there has been no official statement regarding airdrops since the MET points system was first announced over a year ago. Although liquidity providers may earn higher returns elsewhere in the ecosystem (such as lulo.fi), market positioning and airdrop expectations may be the main drivers for liquidity providers.
Total Value Locked (TVL) retention: Meteora has seen development through airdrops with Pengu and the launch of Memecoins related to Trump and Melania, among other major events. Although during the Memecoin launch period, the volume/TVL ratios of many trading pairs rose due to temporary demand, Meteora's TVL continued to rise after the events, demonstrating good retention.
Integration: Virtuals will migrate to Solana in the first quarter of 2024 and announce integration with the Meteora liquidity pool.
Orca Outlook Bleak: Insufficient Liquidity Retained
Insufficient Liquidity Depth: Despite its high efficiency, Orca's pool size is significantly smaller than Raydium's, resulting in higher slippage for large trades.
Market positioning issue: Jupiter's routing mechanism prioritizes trading platforms with deeper liquidity, making emerging low-liquidity decentralized exchanges and liquidity pools less attractive.
The emergence of Meteora as a liquidity aggregator further restricts the competitive survival ability of non-dominant decentralized exchanges in the routing framework, as routing only occurs when the slippage cost is lower than the cost premium of Meteora, which is extremely rare outside of market demand spikes.
Limited liquidity provider incentives: Orca lacks a strong liquidity mining strategy, resulting in a low retention rate for long-term liquidity providers.
Inefficient capital allocation: Unlike Meteora, Orca has not yet implemented automated yield optimization, requiring manual management of LP, resulting in a more cumbersome user experience.
The liquidity trend is not optimistic: The upcoming Meteora token may completely attract liquidity providers from Orca, making its situation even more difficult.
Lack of Integration: Failure to cooperate with Pump.fun in early 2024 and missing the recent collaboration with Virtuals highlight its competitive disadvantage in gaining orders for emerging retail-driven applications. Without upcoming catalysts to reverse this trend, liquidity migration may persist.
The above factors have led to Orca's inability to retain the additional user volume obtained during the peak of network demand.
Key Catalysts and Risks
Catalysts to be noted
RAY repurchase compared to the amount held by centralized exchanges: RAY's repurchase speed has now exceeded the total amount of RAY held by centralized exchanges, strengthening the scarcity of the token.
Overall lock-up value growth trend: The continued dominance of Raydium, Jupiter, and Meteora indicates the sustainability of long-term liquidity. The stickiness performance of emerging protocols is worth paying attention to and should not be overlooked in high-pressure market conditions.
Partnerships: Just as Pumpfun's integration brings significant liquidity to Raydium, Meteora's integration with Virtuals may also have a similar effect. Given the impact of such partnerships on liquidity and total locked value, collaborations with lesser-known participants are highly anticipated.
Meteora token issuance: This event may mark a turning point in the decentralized exchange liquidity allocation of Solana.
Cost-to-Market Value Ratio: Orca demonstrates high efficiency in high-demand months, but its limited liquidity hinders long-term competitiveness. On the other hand, JUP faces the opposite situation due to limitations of its business model. Compared to the latest 'Hot Project' Hyperliquid, Raydium generates ten times the cost with one-eighth of the fully diluted valuation.
Risk
Inflation pressure of JUP: Despite the stable position of Jupiter's aggregator, its large token supply may cause short-term price pressure.
Decline in Orca market share: If the trend of liquidity provider migration continues, Orca may face ongoing liquidity loss.
Meteora airdrops and tokenomics execution risks: Despite the strong early total lock-up value growth, its token economy and incentive structure remain untested.
Conclusion and Investment Outlook
The landscape of decentralized exchanges on Solana is shifting towards greater efficiency and deeper liquidity concentration. Raydium's outstanding liquidity positioning, proactive buyback mechanism, and market leadership make it a highly confident decentralized exchange. Jupiter's aggregator role remains crucial and provides a competitive barrier, but token supply dilution poses a short-term resistance. Orca once was a competitive player, but faces severe challenges in liquidity retention and capital efficiency, becoming an increasingly fragile asset, indicating a missed key integration and the dilemma of challenging mature participants. Meteora is expected to rise after successfully launching the upcoming tokens. According to our current theory, investment positions in decentralized exchanges should be concentrated in leading decentralized exchanges, decentralized exchange aggregators, and liquidity aggregators within a given ecosystem, and emerging participants that meet catalyst standards can also hold a small position.