Early 2026, the fervor in global financial markets remains unabated. However, this Friday, the market may face a true stress test — U.S. December nonfarm employment data is about to be released, and at the same time the Supreme Court is also reviewing the constitutionality of certain policies.

Interestingly, despite the constant stream of news recently, from geopolitical developments to sector rotations, U.S. stocks and Treasury bonds have performed remarkably smoothly. A chief investment officer at a major asset management firm stated bluntly in an interview: "We're being bombarded with information, but the market is calm and steady, which is indeed somewhat unusual."

However, this tranquility will soon be disrupted. Market strategists point out that options traders have already prepared themselves for one of the most volatile trading days of the year. Based on implied volatility calculations from options expiring Friday, the S&P 500 could swing ±0.9% in a single day.

The turbulence in the options market also provides clues. Although the S&P 500 is hitting new highs, Wall Street's panic index (VIX) has been climbing slowly since the beginning of 2026, closing at 15.5 on Thursday. However, some analysts question whether investors' vigilance is sufficient, arguing that the performance of the options market is actually relatively mild.