Tinjauan Data Lapangan Kerja AS: Perusahaan Hati-hati dalam Perekrutan, Otomatisasi AI Menjadi Variabel Baru

【Block Rhythm】Data analysis reveals an interesting phenomenon — employment growth in the United States in December may be slowing down. The reasons behind this are not complex: first, companies are being cautious due to import tariff pressures, and second, sustained high AI investment is prompting many companies to reassess their hiring strategies.

However, from the unemployment rate perspective, it is expected to fall to 4.5%, which sends a stabilizing signal to the market. The market widely believes the Federal Reserve will likely maintain interest rates unchanged this month, waiting to see what the non-farm payroll data to be released tonight will reveal.

Interestingly, economists have discovered that the labor market is now in a curious state of “neither hiring aggressively nor laying off” — companies are neither significantly expanding headcount nor rushing to cut staff. Sal Gualtieri, economist at Bank of Montreal Capital Markets, points out this is not simply a matter of insufficient demand. Economic performance is actually quite solid, with third quarter GDP growth and productivity both showing significant increases, largely driven by the explosion in AI spending.

The real issue is — companies are being particularly cautious about hiring. On one hand they need to control costs to deal with tariff shocks, on the other hand more companies are starting to believe AI-driven automation can deliver productivity surges. In other words, rather than burning money to hire new people, it’s better to invest in AI for efficiency gains. This shift in attitude may have far-reaching implications for the employment market and economic trajectory ahead.