S&P Global Ratings has made a big move recently — directly raising its US GDP growth expectations for 2025-2026, while also predicting that the Federal Reserve will conduct two rate cuts in the first half of 2026. Once this signal hit the market, traders immediately caught a whiff of dovish sentiment.
Let me first explain what this means for crypto assets. A rate-cutting cycle typically triggers two chain reactions: first, dollar liquidity becomes more abundant, making it easier for risk assets to attract capital inflows; second, the probability of an economic soft landing rises, and investor risk appetite rebounds accordingly. For assets like Bitcoin, which are known as "digital gold," this is indeed a positive signal — historical data also shows that Bitcoin tends to perform well during periods of loose monetary policy.
However, there are some cautious notes to consider here. First, this forecast is built on the premise of inflation continuing to decline moderately. If energy prices or other cost factors suddenly rebound by year-end, inflation data could contradict expectations. Second, there are still voices within the Federal Reserve advocating for maintaining higher rates, so the decision-making process won't be smooth sailing. Finally — and most importantly — crypto market volatility is more than ten times that of traditional markets. Policy expectations are just one of many catalysts, so you can't go all-in just because you see good news. Risk management still needs to come first.
To put it simply, this is a positive signal, but the market still has too many variables to digest. If you need to configure hedging tools, you should still do so.
S&P Global Ratings has made a big move recently — directly raising its US GDP growth expectations for 2025-2026, while also predicting that the Federal Reserve will conduct two rate cuts in the first half of 2026. Once this signal hit the market, traders immediately caught a whiff of dovish sentiment.
Let me first explain what this means for crypto assets. A rate-cutting cycle typically triggers two chain reactions: first, dollar liquidity becomes more abundant, making it easier for risk assets to attract capital inflows; second, the probability of an economic soft landing rises, and investor risk appetite rebounds accordingly. For assets like Bitcoin, which are known as "digital gold," this is indeed a positive signal — historical data also shows that Bitcoin tends to perform well during periods of loose monetary policy.
However, there are some cautious notes to consider here. First, this forecast is built on the premise of inflation continuing to decline moderately. If energy prices or other cost factors suddenly rebound by year-end, inflation data could contradict expectations. Second, there are still voices within the Federal Reserve advocating for maintaining higher rates, so the decision-making process won't be smooth sailing. Finally — and most importantly — crypto market volatility is more than ten times that of traditional markets. Policy expectations are just one of many catalysts, so you can't go all-in just because you see good news. Risk management still needs to come first.
To put it simply, this is a positive signal, but the market still has too many variables to digest. If you need to configure hedging tools, you should still do so.