Latest market chatter about 15 consecutive bullish candles is everywhere. Media outlets keep hyping this number, but if you look carefully at the K-line charts, there are clearly two fake bullish candles sandwiched in the middle—how could these major media outlets not see that? They just want this kind of market atmosphere.
Starting from the reversal wave on December 17, this trend does look somewhat similar to the market action from mid-April last year—that was when we had a genuine 8 consecutive bullish candles. From the 924 point onwards, capital's control has become increasingly evident, intervening without hesitation at key levels. The market's ups and downs all contain hidden mechanisms; this sense of rhythm is the key to whether A-shares' long bull market can sustain itself.
To be honest, most retail investors this year will likely fail to outperform the A500 index. Quite a few people probably already feel this. While the broad market index looks nice with all the red gains, the divergence between sectors keeps expanding. Some sectors have already given back the profits they made earlier. Downward adjustment pressure will continue.
For a long bull market to last, it must suppress that impatient desire for rapid explosive gains. This means some sectors might underperform reasonable expectations at their cyclical bottoms, which isn't abnormal but standard.
The SciFi Index has been quite resilient this year, but note that its strength has a completely different character from its strength at this time last year. Last year's sweeping strength in deep learning concepts—you simply can't see that now. The tech sector's advantage now comes more from other sectors' relative lag, not from absolute explosive performance.
There's no reason to reduce positions prematurely right now. Continue with dynamic position management, but stay vigilant about one phenomenon: while broad market trend confirmation is solid, sector rotation tempo will accelerate. One misstep and you'll get whipped out by sector switching.
Latest market chatter about 15 consecutive bullish candles is everywhere. Media outlets keep hyping this number, but if you look carefully at the K-line charts, there are clearly two fake bullish candles sandwiched in the middle—how could these major media outlets not see that? They just want this kind of market atmosphere.
Starting from the reversal wave on December 17, this trend does look somewhat similar to the market action from mid-April last year—that was when we had a genuine 8 consecutive bullish candles. From the 924 point onwards, capital's control has become increasingly evident, intervening without hesitation at key levels. The market's ups and downs all contain hidden mechanisms; this sense of rhythm is the key to whether A-shares' long bull market can sustain itself.
To be honest, most retail investors this year will likely fail to outperform the A500 index. Quite a few people probably already feel this. While the broad market index looks nice with all the red gains, the divergence between sectors keeps expanding. Some sectors have already given back the profits they made earlier. Downward adjustment pressure will continue.
For a long bull market to last, it must suppress that impatient desire for rapid explosive gains. This means some sectors might underperform reasonable expectations at their cyclical bottoms, which isn't abnormal but standard.
The SciFi Index has been quite resilient this year, but note that its strength has a completely different character from its strength at this time last year. Last year's sweeping strength in deep learning concepts—you simply can't see that now. The tech sector's advantage now comes more from other sectors' relative lag, not from absolute explosive performance.
There's no reason to reduce positions prematurely right now. Continue with dynamic position management, but stay vigilant about one phenomenon: while broad market trend confirmation is solid, sector rotation tempo will accelerate. One misstep and you'll get whipped out by sector switching.