⚠️ High Alert: Brothers, prepare yourselves mentally - tonight the market is going to unleash a barrage of consecutive bombshells! From 9:30 PM through the late night, several heavyweight economic data releases and policy announcements will come crashing down one after another, each one potentially rewriting the short-term market trajectory.
📋 Tonight's Key Timeline
· 21:30 US November Retail Sales MoM and PPI data release · 23:00 US December Existing Home Sales data · 23:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending January 9 · TBD US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs · Next day 01:00 EIA Monthly Energy Outlook Report · Next day 01:45 Trump's speech
🎯 Data Analysis and Market Impact
PPI data is the decisive factor - the key is the US November PPI year-over-year rate released at 21:30, with market consensus expecting 2.7%. This figure is critical: if actual data comes in lower than expected, it will reinforce the narrative of inflation peaking, potentially providing support for risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, if data comes in stronger, it could intensify market concerns about a delayed rate-cut cycle.
EIA Crude Oil Inventory is a market amplifier - the previous data plummeted by 3.832 million barrels, directly pushing up oil prices and inflation expectations. Tonight's expected decline is 1.702 million barrels. If inventory continues to drop significantly, inflation concerns will heat up; but if inventory actually increases, it could ease the pressure. Risk assets like Ethereum are also highly sensitive to such data.
Trump's tariff ruling is a hidden black swan - the Supreme Court's decision is completely uncertain. If the ruling goes against Trump, it could trigger short-term market concerns about trade policy prospects and US dollar credibility, and this uncertainty itself could trigger market volatility.
💡 Logical Reasoning
Put simply, here's how it works: PPI and EIA data will influence market sentiment by changing inflation expectations and rate-cut expectations. Moderate or weak data performance → rising rate-cut expectations → favorable for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Conversely, if data is strong → intensified inflation concerns → market pressure.
Combined with the Trump tariff ruling and his subsequent speech, these variables could disturb expectations around dollar credibility. Any hint of a surprise signal could trigger risk-aversion fund flows or dramatic market swings.
🔑 Trading Recommendations
Tonight is a classic high-volatility trading night. Here's what I recommend:
1. Reduce your leverage beforehand - don't be greedy. Prepare mentally for potentially massive volatility swings.
2. Watch Bitcoin and Ethereum's real-time reactions closely - these two assets are the best indicators of market sentiment. The price action in the first 5 minutes after data release best reflects true market expectations.
3. Don't sleep too soundly. Trump's speech in the early morning hours could bring additional surprises or shocks, and the market might experience another round of turbulence at that time.
Whether it brings fortune or misfortune, the data and policy voices will tell you the answer. Are you ready?
⚠️ High Alert: Brothers, prepare yourselves mentally - tonight the market is going to unleash a barrage of consecutive bombshells! From 9:30 PM through the late night, several heavyweight economic data releases and policy announcements will come crashing down one after another, each one potentially rewriting the short-term market trajectory.
📋 Tonight's Key Timeline
· 21:30 US November Retail Sales MoM and PPI data release
· 23:00 US December Existing Home Sales data
· 23:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending January 9
· TBD US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs
· Next day 01:00 EIA Monthly Energy Outlook Report
· Next day 01:45 Trump's speech
🎯 Data Analysis and Market Impact
PPI data is the decisive factor - the key is the US November PPI year-over-year rate released at 21:30, with market consensus expecting 2.7%. This figure is critical: if actual data comes in lower than expected, it will reinforce the narrative of inflation peaking, potentially providing support for risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, if data comes in stronger, it could intensify market concerns about a delayed rate-cut cycle.
EIA Crude Oil Inventory is a market amplifier - the previous data plummeted by 3.832 million barrels, directly pushing up oil prices and inflation expectations. Tonight's expected decline is 1.702 million barrels. If inventory continues to drop significantly, inflation concerns will heat up; but if inventory actually increases, it could ease the pressure. Risk assets like Ethereum are also highly sensitive to such data.
Trump's tariff ruling is a hidden black swan - the Supreme Court's decision is completely uncertain. If the ruling goes against Trump, it could trigger short-term market concerns about trade policy prospects and US dollar credibility, and this uncertainty itself could trigger market volatility.
💡 Logical Reasoning
Put simply, here's how it works: PPI and EIA data will influence market sentiment by changing inflation expectations and rate-cut expectations. Moderate or weak data performance → rising rate-cut expectations → favorable for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Conversely, if data is strong → intensified inflation concerns → market pressure.
Combined with the Trump tariff ruling and his subsequent speech, these variables could disturb expectations around dollar credibility. Any hint of a surprise signal could trigger risk-aversion fund flows or dramatic market swings.
🔑 Trading Recommendations
Tonight is a classic high-volatility trading night. Here's what I recommend:
1. Reduce your leverage beforehand - don't be greedy. Prepare mentally for potentially massive volatility swings.
2. Watch Bitcoin and Ethereum's real-time reactions closely - these two assets are the best indicators of market sentiment. The price action in the first 5 minutes after data release best reflects true market expectations.
3. Don't sleep too soundly. Trump's speech in the early morning hours could bring additional surprises or shocks, and the market might experience another round of turbulence at that time.
Whether it brings fortune or misfortune, the data and policy voices will tell you the answer. Are you ready?