BTC increasingly resembles a "risk asset indicator"
Today's Bitcoin is no longer entirely an independent asset class, but is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic conditions. When interest rate expectations fluctuate, the dollar strengthens, or global risk appetite declines, BTC often moves in sync with tech stocks. This does not mean Bitcoin has lost its independence, but rather indicates that it has entered the realm of global asset allocation. The more institutional participation there is, the more apparent the macro linkage becomes. To some extent, this is a sign of maturity. Recently, if the stock market comes under pressure and liquidity expectations tighten, it is not surprising for major asset classes to fluctuate together. In such an environment, BTC acts more like a highly elastic asset, amplifying market sentiment. To judge the future trend, three macro variables can be monitored: the direction of dollar liquidity, the trend of real interest rates, and overall risk asset sentiment. If these variables stabilize, the crypto market usually leads the recovery. Therefore, attributing all volatility solely to the industry itself may be too narrow a perspective. Often, BTC is just a part of the macro wave. In a word: When Bitcoin is incorporated into mainstream view, it inevitably participates in macro cycles.#比特币跌破六万五美元
BTC increasingly resembles a "risk asset indicator"
Today's Bitcoin is no longer entirely an independent asset class, but is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic conditions. When interest rate expectations fluctuate, the dollar strengthens, or global risk appetite declines, BTC often moves in sync with tech stocks.
This does not mean Bitcoin has lost its independence, but rather indicates that it has entered the realm of global asset allocation. The more institutional participation there is, the more apparent the macro linkage becomes. To some extent, this is a sign of maturity.
Recently, if the stock market comes under pressure and liquidity expectations tighten, it is not surprising for major asset classes to fluctuate together. In such an environment, BTC acts more like a highly elastic asset, amplifying market sentiment.
To judge the future trend, three macro variables can be monitored: the direction of dollar liquidity, the trend of real interest rates, and overall risk asset sentiment. If these variables stabilize, the crypto market usually leads the recovery.
Therefore, attributing all volatility solely to the industry itself may be too narrow a perspective. Often, BTC is just a part of the macro wave.
In a word: When Bitcoin is incorporated into mainstream view, it inevitably participates in macro cycles.#比特币跌破六万五美元