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Before the non-farm report: The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 60.1%.
Jin10 data on April 4: According to CME’s “The Federal Reserve (FED) Watch”: The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged in May is 60.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 39.9%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate unchanged until June is 0, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 53.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 42.2%.