Analyst: Bitcoin has deviated from the Halving cycle structure, the past "four-year rule" may have become ineffective.

For a long time, the market has generally believed that the bull and bear cycles of Bitcoin (BTC) are closely linked to the “Halving event.” However, analyst James Check recently stated that this view is overly simplistic. In reality, what drives the Bitcoin cycle are deeper adoption trends and market structures, rather than a single supply shock. This perspective challenges the long-standing popular “four-year Halving law” and has sparked heated discussions in the market.

James Check: Three “Non-Halving” Cycles of Bitcoin

(Source: Checkonchain)

Check pointed out in the latest analysis that Bitcoin has experienced three major cycles in its history, but they did not center around Halving:

2011–2018: Adoption Cycle

Driven by early adoption from retail investors

2018–2022: Puberty Cycle

The characteristic is the rapid expansion and prevalence of leveraged trading in a “Western Development” style.

2022 to Present: Mature Cycle

Driven by institutional capital, stability, and governance

He emphasized that the market environment after the bear market in 2022 is different from the past, and if investors only rely on historical Halving patterns, they may miss key signals.

Halving theory still has supporters, but the cycle may be extended

(Source: Trading View)

Traditional views suggest that after the Halving, the reduction in supply and increase in demand will trigger a bull market peak a year later—this was the case in 2013, 2017, and 2021, leading the market to anticipate a repetition of this pattern in 2025.

However, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan believes that institutional participation has changed the game, and this bull market may last until 2026 before it ends, breaking the four-year cycle.

Crypto entrepreneur TechDev stated on X (formerly Twitter) that the key to Bitcoin lies in “business cycles and liquidity dynamics,” rather than the Halving itself. He pointed out that the difference in this round is that the bullish phase has been extended.

Is the cycle dead? Glassnode and traders’ rebuttal

On August 20, the on-chain analytics company Glassnode stated that Bitcoin is still following the traditional cyclical pattern, and the recent profit-taking and selling pressure indicate that the market has entered the late stage of the cycle.

Experienced position trader Bob Loukas believes that regardless of what the outside world says, the market always has cycles: “We continuously add positions until we get liquidated, and then we start over. The only difference is how much risk you can avoid and how quickly you can reset.”

Conclusion

Is the Bitcoin market cycle driven by Halving or dominated by adoption and liquidity dynamics? James Check’s perspective provides a new framework for thinking about the market and reminds investors not to be constrained by a single model. With the changes in institutional funds, macroeconomic conditions, and the policy environment, this bull market may follow a rhythm that is completely different from the past. For investors, being flexible and dynamically adjusting strategies may be the key to navigating the cycle. For more real-time quotes and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.