Crypto analyst Kevin of Kev Capital TA believes that the current altcoin market structure is replaying the same setup that preceded the explosive “altseason” of 2021. In his latest video posted on September 2, he highlights a Wyckoff-style bottoming process in the ratio of the altcoin market cap excluding Ethereum and stablecoins versus Bitcoin—often tracked as “Total3/BTC.”
Kevin argues that across both weekly and monthly timeframes, and on linear as well as logarithmic charts, the market is showing signs of a capitulation “spring” followed by a reclaimed range. In his view, this structural shift mirrors the conditions of late 2018 through 2020 that culminated in a powerful rally once traders had largely abandoned altcoins.
Market Structure Takes Center Stage
The analyst emphasizes that headlines did not drive the last cycle’s breakout, and they are not what matters now. Instead, he points to structural signals on the weekly chart, where Total3/BTC has moved back into an accumulation range after a deep flush below support. This, he says, is the same “spring phase” that gave birth to the 2021 altcoin rally.
Momentum indicators reinforce his conviction. Market Cipher has issued a fresh weekly buy, whale money flow has bottomed at the same levels as in 2021, and the MACD has crossed upward at the identical point it did before the last surge. The stochastic RSI, now above 96, also resembles the pre-breakout conditions of the previous cycle.
Monthly Signals and Historical Parallels
Zooming out to the monthly log chart, Kevin identifies an eight-year support band between 0.27 and 0.24 on Total3/BTC. Here, he sees a higher low structure meeting a downtrend resistance line, alongside what he calls a classic bullish divergence on Market Cipher’s momentum waves.
The monthly RSI is breaking out of a multi-year downtrend for the first time since the 2021 peak, while the monthly stochastic RSI has made a sharp reversal from near zero. Crucially, it has not yet broken the 80 level, which in Kevin’s framework is where the strongest bullish momentum typically begins. He also highlights a double-bottom formation in the monthly L-MACD that echoes the June–December 2020 pattern which preceded the last major altcoin surge.
Macro Conditions Still Matter
Despite the technical alignment, Kevin underscores that macroeconomic factors will determine whether the setup can trigger a sustained rotation. He points to the need for softer inflation, a cooling but stable labor market, and a moderation in growth that would allow the Federal Reserve to pivot its policy stance. Such conditions, he argues, could ease yields, lift expectations for rate cuts, and even temper quantitative tightening. With critical U.S. economic data due in the coming weeks and the next FOMC meeting scheduled for September 17, he sees the fourth quarter as a decisive window.
The Potential for Crypto’s Biggest Run Yet
According to Kevin, the convergence of weekly linear and monthly logarithmic signals is unprecedented. If the pattern plays out, he expects the altcoin market to seize dominance from Bitcoin at a pace not seen since the last altseason. He frames the setup as a sequel to his earlier bullish calls on Ethereum, where ETH versus BTC and ETH dominance had already begun showing outperformance before Ethereum’s explosive run.
Still, he tempers expectations by noting that September is historically a weak month for crypto markets, with any breakout momentum likely delayed until Q4. The charts may be flashing early signals, but confirmation, he insists, depends on macro catalysts. “If there was ever going to be a time that it was going to happen… now’s the time,” he said, while cautioning that the next few weeks of data will be critical.
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Altcoins May Be Repeating the 2021 Playbook
Crypto analyst Kevin of Kev Capital TA believes that the current altcoin market structure is replaying the same setup that preceded the explosive “altseason” of 2021. In his latest video posted on September 2, he highlights a Wyckoff-style bottoming process in the ratio of the altcoin market cap excluding Ethereum and stablecoins versus Bitcoin—often tracked as “Total3/BTC.”
Kevin argues that across both weekly and monthly timeframes, and on linear as well as logarithmic charts, the market is showing signs of a capitulation “spring” followed by a reclaimed range. In his view, this structural shift mirrors the conditions of late 2018 through 2020 that culminated in a powerful rally once traders had largely abandoned altcoins.
Market Structure Takes Center Stage
The analyst emphasizes that headlines did not drive the last cycle’s breakout, and they are not what matters now. Instead, he points to structural signals on the weekly chart, where Total3/BTC has moved back into an accumulation range after a deep flush below support. This, he says, is the same “spring phase” that gave birth to the 2021 altcoin rally.
Momentum indicators reinforce his conviction. Market Cipher has issued a fresh weekly buy, whale money flow has bottomed at the same levels as in 2021, and the MACD has crossed upward at the identical point it did before the last surge. The stochastic RSI, now above 96, also resembles the pre-breakout conditions of the previous cycle.
Monthly Signals and Historical Parallels
Zooming out to the monthly log chart, Kevin identifies an eight-year support band between 0.27 and 0.24 on Total3/BTC. Here, he sees a higher low structure meeting a downtrend resistance line, alongside what he calls a classic bullish divergence on Market Cipher’s momentum waves.
The monthly RSI is breaking out of a multi-year downtrend for the first time since the 2021 peak, while the monthly stochastic RSI has made a sharp reversal from near zero. Crucially, it has not yet broken the 80 level, which in Kevin’s framework is where the strongest bullish momentum typically begins. He also highlights a double-bottom formation in the monthly L-MACD that echoes the June–December 2020 pattern which preceded the last major altcoin surge.
Macro Conditions Still Matter
Despite the technical alignment, Kevin underscores that macroeconomic factors will determine whether the setup can trigger a sustained rotation. He points to the need for softer inflation, a cooling but stable labor market, and a moderation in growth that would allow the Federal Reserve to pivot its policy stance. Such conditions, he argues, could ease yields, lift expectations for rate cuts, and even temper quantitative tightening. With critical U.S. economic data due in the coming weeks and the next FOMC meeting scheduled for September 17, he sees the fourth quarter as a decisive window.
The Potential for Crypto’s Biggest Run Yet
According to Kevin, the convergence of weekly linear and monthly logarithmic signals is unprecedented. If the pattern plays out, he expects the altcoin market to seize dominance from Bitcoin at a pace not seen since the last altseason. He frames the setup as a sequel to his earlier bullish calls on Ethereum, where ETH versus BTC and ETH dominance had already begun showing outperformance before Ethereum’s explosive run.
Still, he tempers expectations by noting that September is historically a weak month for crypto markets, with any breakout momentum likely delayed until Q4. The charts may be flashing early signals, but confirmation, he insists, depends on macro catalysts. “If there was ever going to be a time that it was going to happen… now’s the time,” he said, while cautioning that the next few weeks of data will be critical.