In a message on September 2, Tom Lee – co-founder of Fundstrat and currently Chairman of BitMine – provided a notable analysis of the long term potential of Ethereum. He not only relied on historical data of the ETH/BTC trading pair but also placed Ethereum within a broader strategic framework: the role of a "payment rail" as a replacement for the global financial system.
Analysis Base: ETH/BTC And Ratio Frame
Lee started with the ETH/BTC pair – an important measure that reflects the relative strength between the two largest currencies in the market.
Average ETH/BTC ratio over 8 years: 0.0479Current level: 0.0432 (below average)Peak in 2021: 0.0873
According to him, Ethereum is likely to return to the long term average, and may even exceed the previous peak as it becomes the infrastructure platform for finance and AI.
Relationship With Bitcoin Price
Fundstrat sets a year-end target for Bitcoin at 250,000 USD. From there, Lee builds a "sliding grid" (sliding grid) to convert ETH/BTC levels into specific Ethereum prices:
If ETH/BTC returns to the average level (,048): ETH will reach around 12,000 USD. If ETH/BTC hits the peak again in 2021 (,087): ETH will approach 22,000 USD. If Ethereum reaches the "replacement cost" scenario (ETH/BTC = 0,25): ETH could explode to 62,500 USD.
Perspective on "Substitute Cost"
The breakthrough in Lee's argument is the perspective of opportunity cost. He argues that:
Banks and market operators are currently spending billions of USD on payment infrastructure, clearing systems, and security. With proof-of-stake, Ethereum could replace all of these costs while also providing profits from staking. As Wall Street shifts to using Ethereum as a payment rail, the market must price ETH not only based on historical ratios but based on the value of the global financial infrastructure it replaces.
According to Lee, this opens the scenario of 62,500 USD for each ETH.
Ethereum: The "1971 Moment" of Finance
Lee compares the current transition to the "1971 moment" – when the U.S. detached from the gold standard, ushering in a new era for the global financial system.
Ethereum is becoming the platform for aggregating real world assets (RWA – Real World Assets).Stablecoin expands into digital base currency. Payment infrastructure, credit, equity, and even AI data can all operate on the Ethereum blockchain.
This makes ETH not just a token, but a foundational rail for the digital era.
BitMine and Ethereum Accumulation Strategy
Lee's message also directly reflects the model of BitMine – the business he operates:
BitMine operates like an Ethereum treasury, accumulating ETH through various leverages. Value sources come from: issuing shares on NAV, profits from price fluctuations, operating cash flow, staking rewards, and strategic M&A. According to Lee, proof of stake turns ETH into a profitable infrastructure asset, rather than just a speculative investment.
Conclusion
Tom Lee's argument presents a multi-layered picture:
Short term: ETH is trading below the average ETH/BTC, with a potential for recovery. Mid term: ETH may return to or exceed the ETH/BTC peak of 2021. Long term: If Ethereum becomes a global payment platform, a price of 62,500 USD is entirely feasible.
With this vision, Ethereum is not just a speculative asset, but a leading candidate for the role of new generation financial infrastructure – where the costs of traditional infrastructure are replaced by staking and on-chain mechanisms.
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Why Ethereum Could Explode to 62,500 USD According to Tom Lee's Forecast
In a message on September 2, Tom Lee – co-founder of Fundstrat and currently Chairman of BitMine – provided a notable analysis of the long term potential of Ethereum. He not only relied on historical data of the ETH/BTC trading pair but also placed Ethereum within a broader strategic framework: the role of a "payment rail" as a replacement for the global financial system. Analysis Base: ETH/BTC And Ratio Frame Lee started with the ETH/BTC pair – an important measure that reflects the relative strength between the two largest currencies in the market. Average ETH/BTC ratio over 8 years: 0.0479Current level: 0.0432 (below average)Peak in 2021: 0.0873 According to him, Ethereum is likely to return to the long term average, and may even exceed the previous peak as it becomes the infrastructure platform for finance and AI. Relationship With Bitcoin Price Fundstrat sets a year-end target for Bitcoin at 250,000 USD. From there, Lee builds a "sliding grid" (sliding grid) to convert ETH/BTC levels into specific Ethereum prices: If ETH/BTC returns to the average level (,048): ETH will reach around 12,000 USD. If ETH/BTC hits the peak again in 2021 (,087): ETH will approach 22,000 USD. If Ethereum reaches the "replacement cost" scenario (ETH/BTC = 0,25): ETH could explode to 62,500 USD. Perspective on "Substitute Cost" The breakthrough in Lee's argument is the perspective of opportunity cost. He argues that: Banks and market operators are currently spending billions of USD on payment infrastructure, clearing systems, and security. With proof-of-stake, Ethereum could replace all of these costs while also providing profits from staking. As Wall Street shifts to using Ethereum as a payment rail, the market must price ETH not only based on historical ratios but based on the value of the global financial infrastructure it replaces. According to Lee, this opens the scenario of 62,500 USD for each ETH. Ethereum: The "1971 Moment" of Finance Lee compares the current transition to the "1971 moment" – when the U.S. detached from the gold standard, ushering in a new era for the global financial system. Ethereum is becoming the platform for aggregating real world assets (RWA – Real World Assets).Stablecoin expands into digital base currency. Payment infrastructure, credit, equity, and even AI data can all operate on the Ethereum blockchain. This makes ETH not just a token, but a foundational rail for the digital era. BitMine and Ethereum Accumulation Strategy Lee's message also directly reflects the model of BitMine – the business he operates: BitMine operates like an Ethereum treasury, accumulating ETH through various leverages. Value sources come from: issuing shares on NAV, profits from price fluctuations, operating cash flow, staking rewards, and strategic M&A. According to Lee, proof of stake turns ETH into a profitable infrastructure asset, rather than just a speculative investment. Conclusion Tom Lee's argument presents a multi-layered picture: Short term: ETH is trading below the average ETH/BTC, with a potential for recovery. Mid term: ETH may return to or exceed the ETH/BTC peak of 2021. Long term: If Ethereum becomes a global payment platform, a price of 62,500 USD is entirely feasible. With this vision, Ethereum is not just a speculative asset, but a leading candidate for the role of new generation financial infrastructure – where the costs of traditional infrastructure are replaced by staking and on-chain mechanisms.