Goldman Sachs Chief Economist: The probability of a recession in the United States in the next year is only 15%

Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group, said in an interview on Wednesday that he estimated that the probability of the United States falling into a recession in the next 12 months was only 15%. Given that there has been a recession every 7 years in U.S. history, this would be considered the "average" probability that the economy will fall into a recession in any given year. Hazus acknowledged that there are several unlikely "uncertainties" ahead that could have a negative impact on the economy, including black swan events and the spread of geopolitical tensions, which could take a toll on commodity and transport prices, but "what we have seen so far is nowhere near the level of causing a recession." ”