QCP Capital: It is expected that the BTC Fluctuation on election night will be about 3.5%, and the market may underestimate the risk after the election.

QCP Capital: It is expected that the BTC volatility on the election night will be about 3.5%, and the market may underestimate the risk after the election. On November 5th, Singapore encryption investment institution QCP Capital stated in a post that as the most intense presidential election in US history is about to unfold in the stock market, bond market, and Cryptocurrency market, the market's anxiety is becoming more apparent. The "Trump trade" (betting on the strengthening of the US dollar, Cryptocurrency pump, and the rise in bond yields) is gradually heating up on the eve of the election, thanks to Trump's leading position in the prediction market. However, if Harris ultimately wins, these gains may be quickly wiped out, leading to a drastic fluctuation in the market overnight. The Cryptocurrency market currently expects that the BTC spot price will fluctuate by about 3.5% on the election night. However, traders may underestimate the risk after the election: the lack of a premium for the fluctuation rate after November 8th indicates that the market expects to quickly reach the election result, but may underestimate the impact of potential latency or controversial results. The outcome of the congressional elections is equally important and may even have the same impact as the outcome of the presidential elections. If the Republican Party wins big, it could mean higher future budget deficits, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance - which is undoubtedly unfavorable for risk assets. Conversely, if there is a split in the legislature, the market may be more stable and volatility may gradually decrease. Currently, the Options market shows a balance between call Options and put Options. In the past few days, there has been a significant amount of buying activity for both call Options and put Options. However, BTC is still seen as part of the 'Trump Trade'. On Monday, as a large amount of funds flowed out of the BTC Spot ETF, the BTC Spot price dropped, which aligns with the results of a poll showing Harris with a slight lead in Iowa. With the gradual release of the election results tomorrow, it is expected that there will be significant fluctuations in the BTC Spot price.