The root of the divergence

CRCL went public against a backdrop of a lack of profitability and ongoing policy changes, and was considered overpriced by some institutions. At the same time, another faction believes that it is a representative asset of the Web3 payment industry, possessing unicorn potential.

The main divergence focuses on two levels: market growth potential vs. actual profitability.

Mainstream analyst opinions

Bullish view (target price 200~250 USD):

• Needham: believes that Circle has an irreplaceable leading position in the compliant stablecoin sector, and with the global central banks’ openness to the use of USDC, its revenue could double within 12 months.
• Bernstein: believes that Circle is a key player in the “digitalization vehicle of the future dollar,” giving a target price of $235.
• Barclays: Expect Circle to become one of the key nodes in the U.S. digital payment ecosystem, target price $212.

Cautious distribution view (target price 80~100 USD):

• J.P. Morgan: Warns that the current market value is overestimated, Circle’s profit model is highly dependent on interest rates, and a potential future rate cut could lead to a significant reduction in revenue.
• Goldman Sachs: Assigned a “Neutral” rating, believing that its business structure is still unstable, with long-term risks outweighing short-term benefits.

Current Price Retracement Analysis

CRCL has retraced from a high of $298.99 to $181.29, a decline of over 35%, indicating that investors are reassessing its valuation. Currently, the technical indicators are in a high-level consolidation phase, with significantly increased trading volume, suggesting a divided market sentiment.

But a pullback may also indicate that a medium-term buying point is forming, especially if the support at 170 dollars remains strong.

Investment strategy recommendations

For novice investors, the following suggestions are recommended:

1. Pay attention to the earnings report cycle
   Circle has not yet released the complete post-listing financial report. Newcomers should pay attention to the financial performance in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, especially the market share and revenue structure of USDC.
2. Buying in batches is safer.
   It is not recommended to buy in heavily all at once; you can allocate funds in three batches at support levels of $170, $150, and $120 to reduce the risk of building a position.
3. Pay attention to policy games.
   Although the GENIUS Act brings short-term benefits, if the Treasury subsequently leads the issuance of dollar stablecoins, Circle’s market position may be challenged.
4. Set take profit and stop loss
   It is recommended to set a short-term target at 220 dollars, with a stop loss if it falls below 150 dollars. Medium to long-term investors can hold until revenue growth turns positive.

Conclusion

CRCL stocks are an important asset in the digital payment and stablecoin sector. Although their IPO performance is impressive, there are both risks and opportunities. New investors should focus on fundamentals and develop rational strategies by considering policies, financial reports, and technical trends to avoid blindly chasing highs.