If you encounter an opportunity that comes only once in a lifetime, go all in!
Wall Street Journal reporter Scott Patterson wrote a book called "Turning the Tables Against the Wind: Billionaires in an Age of Crisis" after three years of interviews, which chronicles the story of Bill Ackerman, the founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, who bet $26 million in the world-class disaster of 2020 and eventually made $3.6 billion.
Rewind to January 2020, Ackman was already anxious about the exponential spread of the COVID-19 virus. However, after communicating with many executives from top global financial institutions, he found that no one shared his concerns. Even the "Oracle of Omaha" Buffett could not understand why Ackman would cancel his planned attendance at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting in May due to the "impending pandemic."
In early February, after meeting with a coughing client, Ackman decided to take action and notify employees to work remotely. On February 23, he believed the market was far from reflecting the risks he saw, and investors were still intoxicated by the continuously rising trend, so Ackman purchased $26 million in credit default swap contracts betting on a risk outbreak. These contracts are linked to $71 billion in corporate bonds and work similarly to insurance; if the bond index crashes, Ackman will reap substantial returns.
In March, investors finally realized the dangers of the pandemic, and the market plummeted. Ackman made a huge profit; on the day of the stock market circuit breaker on March 12, he earned $780 million. Subsequently, based on this, he made a series of operations and earned $3.6 billion from an initial investment of $26 million.
Seeing this case in the book, my first reaction is that the earnings are really not enough...
Even for someone as smart and capital-driven as Ackman at this level, such opportunities may only come once every few decades. Despite only multiplying his capital by 136 times, he is so confident about this opportunity, but unfortunately, he hasn't managed to win all the "money on the table."
I remembered a story about the financial mogul Soros. One time, one of his disciples wanted to bet on an investment opportunity and asked Soros if he could try investing tens of millions of dollars. Soros asked him if he was really certain about this opportunity. The disciple replied yes, and Soros then asked him, "Then why are you only betting such a small amount of money? You should go ALL IN!"
If we're talking about a more recent example, it would be Zhang Ying, the head of the well-known domestic venture capital firm Jingwei. I recently read a summary he wrote that said:
"Recently, I reviewed with friends and discussed the gains and losses of investment businesses over the past year or two. Very few people can translate their judgments and understandings about a matter into concrete actions. Even fewer can translate correct understandings and judgments into concrete actions while also being able to heavily invest, make large amounts, or take significant actions."
Even without mentioning investment, this point is worth our reflection and adjustment in life. Especially when you repeatedly find that your judgment on a certain matter is more accurate than that of the average person, you can then execute with an increasingly results-oriented approach, allowing you to invest heavily, whether it be a large amount of money, more effort, or a wholehearted attitude.
So what I want to say is that if you encounter an opportunity in life that you believe will only come once, and you are very sure that this is a once-in-a-decade or even a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, don't just think about it, and don't just give it a try; you have to go ALL IN and win all the money on the table!
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
If you encounter an opportunity that comes only once in a lifetime, go all in!
Wall Street Journal reporter Scott Patterson wrote a book called "Turning the Tables Against the Wind: Billionaires in an Age of Crisis" after three years of interviews, which chronicles the story of Bill Ackerman, the founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, who bet $26 million in the world-class disaster of 2020 and eventually made $3.6 billion.
Rewind to January 2020, Ackman was already anxious about the exponential spread of the COVID-19 virus. However, after communicating with many executives from top global financial institutions, he found that no one shared his concerns. Even the "Oracle of Omaha" Buffett could not understand why Ackman would cancel his planned attendance at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting in May due to the "impending pandemic."
In early February, after meeting with a coughing client, Ackman decided to take action and notify employees to work remotely. On February 23, he believed the market was far from reflecting the risks he saw, and investors were still intoxicated by the continuously rising trend, so Ackman purchased $26 million in credit default swap contracts betting on a risk outbreak. These contracts are linked to $71 billion in corporate bonds and work similarly to insurance; if the bond index crashes, Ackman will reap substantial returns.
In March, investors finally realized the dangers of the pandemic, and the market plummeted. Ackman made a huge profit; on the day of the stock market circuit breaker on March 12, he earned $780 million. Subsequently, based on this, he made a series of operations and earned $3.6 billion from an initial investment of $26 million.
Seeing this case in the book, my first reaction is that the earnings are really not enough...
Even for someone as smart and capital-driven as Ackman at this level, such opportunities may only come once every few decades. Despite only multiplying his capital by 136 times, he is so confident about this opportunity, but unfortunately, he hasn't managed to win all the "money on the table."
I remembered a story about the financial mogul Soros. One time, one of his disciples wanted to bet on an investment opportunity and asked Soros if he could try investing tens of millions of dollars. Soros asked him if he was really certain about this opportunity. The disciple replied yes, and Soros then asked him, "Then why are you only betting such a small amount of money? You should go ALL IN!"
If we're talking about a more recent example, it would be Zhang Ying, the head of the well-known domestic venture capital firm Jingwei. I recently read a summary he wrote that said:
"Recently, I reviewed with friends and discussed the gains and losses of investment businesses over the past year or two. Very few people can translate their judgments and understandings about a matter into concrete actions. Even fewer can translate correct understandings and judgments into concrete actions while also being able to heavily invest, make large amounts, or take significant actions."
Even without mentioning investment, this point is worth our reflection and adjustment in life. Especially when you repeatedly find that your judgment on a certain matter is more accurate than that of the average person, you can then execute with an increasingly results-oriented approach, allowing you to invest heavily, whether it be a large amount of money, more effort, or a wholehearted attitude.
So what I want to say is that if you encounter an opportunity in life that you believe will only come once, and you are very sure that this is a once-in-a-decade or even a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, don't just think about it, and don't just give it a try; you have to go ALL IN and win all the money on the table!