Tonight, U.S. stocks are expected to gap down opening at least 4%, and will they trigger a circuit breaker tonight? Trump is forcing The Federal Reserve (FED) to cut interest rates earlier, but I estimate that Trump will miscalculate. After various countries retaliate in the trade war, Powell will instead worry about U.S. inflation; it will be tough to cut rates even in June. UBS believes the U.S. will cut rates 4 times this year, while Morgan Stanley believes there will be no rate cuts this year. I think The Federal Reserve (FED) won't heed Trump's advice, and it won't be that easy to cut rates; in the end, it will be Trump himself who backs down. To divert American public protests, I believe Trump will sacrifice Musk, letting Musk step down from the Department of Efficiency and return to his own company. TSL may rebound, and let's see if it can elevate U.S. tech stocks to some extent. Additionally, Trump has shifted the tariff conflict onto Musk, and the Department of Efficiency has announced the end of its mission. This eases dissatisfaction among the Democrats, thereby ending the protests driven by them. However, this is only a temporary fix; the global economic slowdown has become a foregone conclusion, and trading will be tough this year, making stocks difficult as well. Let's wait for stimulus policies in the second half of the year.