Solana SOL rose 13% last week: What is its next target? Can it break the $200 mark this week? Will it rise again?

In April 2025, Solana (SOL) made a strong comeback to the spotlight of the crypto market with a weekly increase of 13%. After experiencing a 60% plunge from a high of $293 at the beginning of the year, SOL recently rebounded from around $110 to the $135 range, reigniting discussions in the market about whether it can break through the $200 mark. This article will deeply analyze SOL's short-term momentum and long-term potential by combining technical indicators, ecological dynamics, and the macro environment.
1. Market Review: From Plunge to Recovery, SOL Shows Resilience
1. Price Volatility and Market Sentiment
In January 2025, SOL had reached an all-time high of $293.31, but due to macro policies (such as Trump) and FTX liquidation, it fell all the way to around $117, a drop of more than 60%. However,过去一周的反弹显示市场情绪逐步修复:SOL从115美元低点climb to 135美元,交易量增长24.88% 到47.6亿美元,未平仓合约同步回升,暗示机构资金重新入场。
2. Key Event Driven
- FTX liquidation pressure alleviated: Although FTX plans to sell $800 million worth of assets on May 30 (61% of which is SOL), the market has partially digested this negative news, with short-term selling pressure concentrated in the second half of April.
- Ecological Revival: Solana's DEX trading volume grew by 43% to $11.16 billion in April, surpassing Ethereum, and the total locked value (TVL) rebounded to 41 million SOL, primarily driven by the Meme coin frenzy.
- Expected technical upgrade: The Firedancer validator testnet led by Jump Crypto is about to launch, with an expected increase in network throughput to 1 million TPS, becoming a long-term value support.
2. Technical Analysis: Key Resistance and Breakthrough Signals
1. Short-term Support and Resistance
- Support levels: $110 (strong support verified multiple times), $117 (recent rebound starting point).
- Resistance levels: $130 (psychological barrier and Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level), $150 (medium-term rebound target), $180 (after breakout or accelerated upward movement).
2. Indicator Signal
- RSI and MACD: The daily RSI has risen from the oversold area (30) to 65, with MACD showing a bullish divergence, indicating an increase in buying momentum.
- Moving Average System: The 50-hour moving average is about to cross above the 200-hour moving average, forming a "golden cross". If it stabilizes above $130, the short-term trend will turn bullish.
- Volume Verification: A breakout accompanied by increased trading volume when surpassing 125 USD confirms the dominance of bullish forces.
3. Fundamental Catalysts: Ecological Expansion and Institutional Layout
1. The developer ecosystem is thriving.
Solana continues to attract DeFi and NFT projects with its low transaction fees (about $0.001 per transaction) and high throughput (6500 TPS). In Q1 2025, its on-chain active addresses grew by 35%, and the number of newly deployed smart contracts surpassed Avalanche and Polygon, becoming the second largest development platform after Ethereum.
2. Institutional interest is heating up.
- ETF Expectations: Asset management giants like BlackRock are assessing the feasibility of a Solana ETF, which could bring in billions of dollars in incremental funds if approved.
- Business Cooperation: Solana Labs has reached a payment agreement with Visa and Shopify to promote the application of SOL as a settlement currency.
3. Macroeconomic Benefits
The U.S. has suspended the imposition of tariffs on 200 trading partners, leading to a rebound in risk asset preferences. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased by 1.41% in a week, with Bitcoin stabilizing above $81,000, creating an environment for altcoin rebounds.
4. Challenges and Risks: The Unignorable Headwinds
1 .FTX liquidation impact
The $800 million asset sell-off that started on May 30 (approximately 49 million SOL) could trigger a short-term liquidity crisis. If the market lacks support, SOL may retrace to the $100 support level.
2. Intensifying Competition
The Ethereum 2.0 upgrade and Avalanche subnet technology divert developer resources, while emerging protocols like Mutuum Finance compete for market share through token economic models. SOL needs to continue innovating to maintain its advantage.
3. Regulatory Uncertainty
The U.S. SEC has not yet clarified the definition of "security tokens"; if SOL falls under regulatory scrutiny, it may limit its exchange liquidity.
5. Price Prediction: Is $200 within reach?
1. Short-term (this week)
The technical analysis shows that SOL needs to break through the resistance of $130 and hold above it to have a chance to reach $150. If the Firedancer testnet progresses positively or institutional buying signals strengthen, the probability of a breakout this week rises to 60%.
2. Mid-term (Q2)
After successfully digesting the selling pressure from FTX, SOL may begin a major upward wave, targeting $180-200. This range corresponds to the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the 2024 peak retracement, and a breakout could challenge $263.
3. Long-term (end of 2025)
In an optimistic scenario (bull market continuation + ecosystem explosion), SOL may reach 400 dollars; the conservative forecast remains in the 250-300 dollar range, corresponding to 30% of Ethereum's market value.
6. Conclusion: The breakthrough is imminent, but caution is needed regarding volatility.
The technical fixes and ecological recovery of Solana lay the foundation for its impact on reaching $200, but FTX liquidation and macro fluctuations remain the biggest variables in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the following signals:
1. $130 breakthrough validity: It requires the closing price to be above this level for three consecutive days.
2. Trading Volume Coordination: The daily trading volume must exceed 6 billion USD to confirm the trend.
3. FTX sell-off rhythm: If liquidation is delayed or conducted in batches, market impact may weaken.
In summary, the probability of SOL breaking through $200 this week is about 40%, but if the macro environment resonates with the technical aspects, the likelihood of achieving this goal by the end of Q2 will significantly increase. Given the high volatility characteristics of the crypto market, position management and risk hedging remain key strategies. #SOL 质押市值超越 ETH#