Is it a normal pullback or the end of the bull run?

At the beginning of 2025, after Bitcoin's price broke through $100,000, it fell sharply, raising doubts about the sustainability of the bull run. The current market is in a critical phase of the halving cycle, and the pullback is more about short-term risk release rather than a long-term trend reversal. However, we must be cautious of the liquidation risk of $4.2 billion long positions in the $70,000-$75,000 range!
1. Halving Cycle Patterns and Historical Comparison
The Bitcoin halving event (the most recent being in April 2024) typically triggers a supply pullback, with price peaks often occurring 12-18 months after the halving. Historical data shows that the average duration of bull runs after the first three halvings is 480 days, with peaks appearing about 18 months post-halving. If this pattern holds, the end of 2025 to early 2026 may be the peak of this current cycle, as the current phase is still in the mid-term adjustment period following the halving, rather than the end of the bull run.
Comparison of historical pullbacks: Bitcoin is currently down about 30% from its highs, which is still in the normal range compared to the bull market pullbacks of 2017 (45%) and 2021 (53%).
Miner cost support: The current miner shutdown price is approximately $78,000. If the price approaches this level, selling pressure may weaken, forming bottom support.
II. Macroeconomic and Policy Impact
1. Interest rate cut expectations and liquidity
The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later in 2025. If global central banks coordinate easing (such as the ECB and BOJ expanding their balance sheets), it will provide liquidity support for risk assets. Bitcoin is highly correlated with the global M2 money supply (correlation coefficient 0.94), and liquidity easing may drive it to break new highs.
3. Technical Analysis and Short-term Risks
Key support and resistance levels:
Bitcoin needs to hold above $78,000 (miner cost) and $73,000 (technical support). A breakout above the $90,000 resistance level can confirm a rebound trend. If it falls below support, it may trigger panic selling.
Beware of leverage liquidation risks:
There is $4.2 billion in long leverage positions in the $70,000 - $75,000 range. If the price breaks below, it may trigger a chain liquidation, accelerating the downward exploration.
Strategy suggestion: If the resistance level of $88,500 is broken, it may open a new upward trend; conversely, if it falls below the support level of $83,000, it may further drop to $78,000 (miner cost support).
Stop-loss settings: Those with a higher position cost are advised to set stop-losses in the range of $82,000 to $83,000 to guard against the risk of a sharp decline triggered by short-term policies or market sentiment shocks.
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