Trump's banquet ignites TRUMP, are there still trading opportunities in the future?

[TL;DR]:

On April 23, the official announcement of the TRUMP meme coin stated that users holding an average of TRUMP ranked in the top 220 will be invited to the "TRUMP DINNER." This positive news caused the TRUMP token to surge by over 80% in a short period.

According to data from Nansen and Chainalysis, during the seven days ending on April 25, the net outflow of TRUMP tokens reached as high as $869 million, while inflows were only $96 million, indicating that a large number of holders chose to sell at high prices.

The future of the TRUMP token depends on Trump's continued influence, the execution capabilities of the project team, and the rational return of the market.

Introduction

After a prolonged three-month downturn, the TRUMP token has recently been speculated in the market again due to the "TRUMP DINNER," with its price rising from 8 dollars to a peak of around 16 dollars. This article provides a detailed interpretation of the event where the Trump dinner activity led to the surge of TRUMP and reveals the underlying logic of market fluctuations.

Trump Dinner Drives TRUMP Surge After Decline

Since the TRUMP token reached an all-time high on January 19 of this year, it has been in a prolonged downtrend for 3 months. Especially on April 18, TRUMP faced a 4% token unlock, becoming a key factor for the market's continued sell-off that pressured the token price.

However, just two days later, news began to spread in the community that Trump was planning to host a dinner for TRUMP token holders. By April 23, the official website of the TRUMP meme coin confirmed this news, stating in an announcement that the top 220 users by average holding amount would be invited to the dinner. Figure 1 Source: TRUMP MEME

As soon as the news broke, the price of the TRUMP token soared, with its market value surging over $100 million and a maximum daily increase of over 80%. However, it is worth mentioning that after the official announcement stated that the top four holders attending the TRUMP dinner would receive a limited edition Trump Tourbillon watch, the token was unable to maintain its upward momentum and experienced a slight decline. ! Figure 2 Source: Gate.io

In addition, the TRUMP Meme official has stated twice that tokens will not be unlocked during the ranking event of the dinner, and the initial batch and subsequent unlocks for 3 months will be extended by 90 days.

The reduction of selling pressure in the short term and the potential empowerment of tokens have triggered over $2.4 billion in on-chain token transfers, setting the highest daily trading volume for CEX since mid-February, and driving other tokens related to the Trump family, such as MELANIA, fully demonstrating Trump's influence in the crypto market.

However, this banquet for cryptocurrency holders has also sparked considerable criticism. Democratic Senators Jon Ossoff, Adam Schiff, and Elizabeth Warren publicly criticized Trump for using the presidency for personal gain, stating that this move could violate federal ethics rules and calling for an investigation by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics. However, in a government environment controlled by the Republican Party, these voices may struggle to have a substantial impact. Nevertheless, the shadow of controversy undoubtedly casts a layer of uncertainty over the future of the TRUMP token.

On-chain data reveals the movements of whales before and after TRUMP's banquet

Despite the dinner event driving TRUMP to rise for several consecutive days, there are still many whales taking advantage of the high prices to sell off. According to on-chain data, during the seven days ending on April 25, the net outflow of TRUMP tokens reached as high as 869 million USD, while the inflow was only 96 million USD, indicating that a large number of holders chose to sell at high prices.

In fact, the top 10 addresses holding coins in TRUMP control 82% of the circulating supply, and the project team holds 80% of the total supply. Although it is currently locked, the selling pressure of unlocking in the future still hangs overhead. According to the white paper, the TRUMP token has started a long-term distribution phase that is expected to last until mid-2028 on April 18 this year, and the next batch will be unlocked in July this year, and if the first phase is delayed by 90 days, then the double selling pressure in July will undoubtedly be very heavy. Readers who are not too new to tokenomics may also know that similar high-concentration tokens are often exposed to the risk of "team selling", and investors need to be extra vigilant. Figure 3 Source: Gate.io

In addition, we see that the top holder is an anonymous address named "Sun" holding 1,176,800 tokens (worth approximately $16 million), which raises speculation about the identity - could it be Tron founder Justin Sun lurking in the background? More whales choose to withdraw coins from exchanges or build positions on-chain after the news spreads, with only two holders using early addresses, suggesting that there are many temporary speculators participating in this "dinner game." Figure 4 Source: TRUMP MEME

Behind this price carnival, the operation of the giant whales is even more intriguing. According to on-chain tracking, an address was laid out in advance through the weighting mechanism of "coin holdings × holding time", increased its position before the dinner announcement, and then sold it in batches when the currency price surged, with a single profit of $2.3 million. Others are mired in the quagmire: an investor who bought 1.11 million tokens at an average price of $41 at a high in January lost $33.66 million, a 73% loss, despite increasing his position. This situation of ice and fire just shows that in a market dominated by traffic and narrative, poor information and financial advantages often crush the judgment of ordinary investors. Figure 5 Source: @cryptothedoggy

In short, the sharp rise and fall of the TRUMP token reflects the structural contradictions of the entire MEME coin track. On the one hand, its 24-hour trading volume can rank among the top 50 crypto assets, proving the market's enthusiasm for the "attention economy". On the other hand, its price action is highly tied to Trump's political life, and when the Senate investigation was launched, the token price fell by 17%. This huge uncertainty makes MEME a preferred target for highly leveraged short-term traders.

Technical analysis fails, TRUMP celebrity coin fluctuates wildly based on news

In the author's view, the volatility of celebrity tokens such as TRUMP is largely driven by market speculation and the celebrity effect. The celebrity effect of Trump as the President of the United States is widely exploited by the market; of course, this attention often lacks a rational basis and can easily trigger significant price fluctuations.

Zooming out, the TRUMP token is just a microcosm of celebrity coins in the cryptocurrency market. These types of tokens leverage celebrity endorsements as their selling point, attracting funds quickly in the short term, but their long-term value is often difficult to maintain. Last year's once-popular tokens like JENNER and MOTHER fall into this category. Trump's dinner provides us with an excellent case to observe the rise and fall of celebrity coins and allows us to glimpse their future in the crypto market. Figure 6 Source: coingecko

In fact, Trump's transformation in the crypto space is remarkable. Four years ago, he denounced Bitcoin as a "scam"; Today, he is a staunch supporter of the industry. During his 2024 campaign, he pledged to make the United States a "crypto capital" and delivered on that promise through several policies during his second term in 2025. Executive Order 14178 of January 23 aims to increase U.S. competitiveness in digital finance; The March 6 order establishes a list of strategic bitcoin reserves and digital assets. These policies have instilled confidence in the crypto market and also provided macro tailwinds for the TRUMP token.

The business layout of the Trump family is equally noteworthy. The World Liberty Financial (WLF) platform encompasses trading, custody, and lending services, while the newly launched stablecoin USD1 may add ecological value to the TRUMP token. However, these activities have also sparked ethical controversies. As the sitting president, do Trump's business dealings constitute a conflict of interest? Is he using his public office for personal gain? These questions will raise doubts among investors regarding the legitimacy and sustainability of the TRUMP token. Figure 7 Source: TRUMP MEME

From this perspective, the lifecycle of celebrity coins often follows a pattern: initially attracting funds through celebrity endorsements, leading to a price surge; followed by a price decline due to market saturation or decreased attention. The TRUMP token is currently in a rebound and recovery phase, but historical experience shows that technical analysis can fail in the face of various favorable and unfavorable news. However, the long-term prospects of such tokens are still influenced by the overall atmosphere of the crypto market and the utility of the tokens themselves. One example I often use is Dogecoin, which surged multiple times during the 2021 crypto bull market due to tweets from Elon Musk, but ultimately could not escape the fate of speculative assets declining as the overall market turned. The TRUMP token may face a similar trajectory, especially when market weight is dominated by whale sell-offs, team unlocks, and ethical controversies.

In summary, the rise of celebrity coins reflects the unique culture of the crypto market: a coexistence of speculation and innovation, as well as opportunities and risks. The future of the TRUMP token depends on Trump's continued influence, the execution capability of the project team, and the rational return of the market. Investors need to remain clear-headed, weighing short-term gains against long-term risks, and avoid blindly chasing trends.

Author: Charle Y., Gate.io researcher *This article only represents the author's views and does not constitute any trading advice. Investment carries risks, and decisions should be made with caution. *The content of this article is original and copyrighted by Gate.io. If you need to reprint it, please indicate the author and source; otherwise, legal responsibility will be pursued.