Recently, the cryptocurrency market has exhibited a bizarre divergence, with Bitcoin continuously breaking historical highs, while Ethereum not only failed to rise in tandem but instead fell into a prolonged decline, even experiencing a big dump during certain periods. This inevitably brings to mind the 2021 "5.19" cryptocurrency market crash. Is Ethereum preparing to lead a group of alts to replicate that bloody historical moment? From publicly available information, there have been no significant unfavourable information regarding Ethereum recently. Whether it is the progress of ecological construction, the advancement of technological upgrades, or the dynamics of the project party, none have revealed negative factors sufficient to trigger a price big dump. Considering market performance and capital flows, we can infer that while there has been new capital getting on board, the overall scale remains insufficient. I have previously emphasized that, in the absence of fundamental changes in the macro economy and the cryptocurrency industry's fundamentals, the market's upward momentum has inherent limitations.

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This time, Bitcoin has hit a historical high, and to promote this landmark breakthrough, it is necessary to draw liquidity from the altcoin market led by Ethereum. After all, the massive market capitalization of Bitcoin determines that for every percentage point it rises, a huge amount of funds needs to be continuously injected. This siphoning effect of funds has led to a market pattern that shows obvious unhealthy characteristics in Bitcoin's new high. Although Bitcoin has successfully refreshed its historical peak, it has done so at the cost of sacrificing the market performance of other crypto assets like Ethereum, resulting in a serious imbalance of funds within the market in the short term. At the same time, the intense volatility in the Ethereum market has also achieved the goal of washing out long positions, forcing a large amount of chasing funds to stop-loss and exit during the continuous decline.
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Through today's in-depth intraday analysis, I have come to the following conclusion: Bitcoin is likely to have hit a phased small top before there is a substantial shift in macroeconomic fundamentals, such as a clear schedule for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The reason why it is called a "small top" is because, judging from the overall market sentiment and capital layout, even if Bitcoin pulls back, its decline is relatively limited, and it is unlikely that there will be a sharp reversal of "sharp rise and fall". The more likely trend is that bitcoin will move out of the "digging hole" pattern, which is the "gold pit" mentioned last week, and build up momentum for the subsequent market through a short-term correction. Ethereum's situation is more delicate, and it is likely to have reached a phased shipping node. Due to the fact that its price trend is affected by a variety of complex factors, including the follow-up effect of the Shanghai upgrade and the intensification of competition in the Layer 2 ecosystem, there is great uncertainty about the future trend of Ethereum. It is expected that for the rest of the month, Ethereum will show a wide range of shocks, with the bulls and bears competing fiercely around key prices.
#BTC能否冲上11万？# #AI 代理板块市值回升# #山寨币季节指数升至24#