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The June CPI report will determine the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut, with the market following the possibility in October.
According to analysis reports, the June CPI report will significantly affect the market's expectations for the Fed's next policy move. Currently, the market expects a greater likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in October. If the data is higher than expected, even if it is significantly above expectations, the Fed will still wait until October to cut rates. However, if the data is moderately below expectations, the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates in July and cut rates in September. In short, regarding monetary policy, the June CPI report will clarify who is right between Trump and Powell.