#ETH走势分析 Ethereum's recent move has been truly fierce, breaking straight through $3,200 with a gain of over 6% in a single day. Keep in mind, from the low of $2,718, the 4-hour chart has already climbed more than 18%, and now the price is sitting firmly above all the moving averages. That said, reaching the $4,000 mark won’t be easy—there are plenty of obstacles ahead.

Let’s talk technicals first. In the short term, a bullish alignment has formed, and the key is whether the $3,080 to $3,100 range can hold—this is the lifeline support; if it breaks, the upward momentum will basically fizzle out. The trading volume during the $3,200 breakout is crucial: if it increases moderately, it means there’s real money following up; if it’s a low-volume push, you have to be cautious about a false breakout. The next tough battle is at $3,300–$3,350, and only after conquering that level does $4,000 become a realistic discussion.

But with Ethereum, you always have to watch Bitcoin’s moves. BTC is currently consolidating around $93,800, and it still hasn’t broken the previous high of $94,150. If it turns down, ETH is likely to suffer as well. History tells us, Ethereum trying to break its previous highs on its own? That’s extremely tough. It needs Bitcoin to break through $95,000 first and clear the way before the next peak is easier to reach.

As for catalysts, after the Cancun upgrade, gas fees have indeed dropped, but whether this restaking narrative can truly attract fresh capital remains to be seen. On the macro side, the Fed’s rate cut expectations need to materialize, and only when the dollar weakens will institutional capital flow in on a large scale.

How does the timeline look? If ETH can hold above $3,300 within a week, the next stop at $3,500 shouldn’t be a problem. Stretching out to 1–3 months, if the Bitcoin halving rally kicks off and a breakout application emerges in the Ethereum ecosystem, $4,000 is totally possible. On the flip side, if it loses the psychological support at $3,000, a pullback to $2,800 is normal.

There are too many variables in the market. Technicals are just one part—you also have to look at capital flows, narrative strength, and the macro environment as a whole.