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From recent market trends, with the advancement of derivative projects like Lighter, a large number of perpetual contract (Perp) products are facing market capitalization pressure. What does this reflect? The data tracked by Opinion Labs makes it clear.
According to statistics, projects with FDV exceeding $800 million have a 44.7% probability, down 11 percentage points compared to December 20 — a significant decline. The probability of surpassing $1 billion is 40.1%, actually increasing by 2 percentage points from before, indicating that some projects are still supporting their valuations.
However, the most noteworthy is the 2B club: the probability has dropped from 15.4% last month to 10.4% now, a five percentage point decrease that clearly shows the market is precisely adjusting expectations. The funding window for high FDV projects is tightening, which will continue to put pressure on the overall market cap of the Perp ecosystem.