Bitcoin started January with a tug-of-war that neither bulls nor bears wanted to compromise on. As of early this morning, the price briefly surged to a high of $90,126, then suddenly spiked violently, with fluctuations exceeding 2,000 points within 24 hours. Currently, the price repeatedly tests around $89,400, down slightly by 1.36% from the previous trading day—this kind of stalemate has become the norm in this round of the market.

The most interesting thing is that internal market differentiation is occurring. From a technical perspective, the situation isn't too bad: the price remains above the short-term moving averages, the MACD indicator has turned bullish, and the RSI momentum is still being released but hasn't entered overbought territory. These signals suggest that the short-term bullish pattern hasn't been broken. However, the gap-up and subsequent decline in the US stock market delivered a blow to Bitcoin, with the key resistance level at $90,300 remaining unbroken. Plus, before the weekend market closure, institutional players became cautious. The combination of these factors has resulted in the current situation of daily volatility.

One detail worth noting is that the main actors in this wave of volatility are not retail investors but institutional rebalancing and real technical battles. This phenomenon aligns with the broader trend since 2025, as regulatory frameworks have become clearer, and the market is accelerating toward institutionalization.

For participants, the current strategy needs to balance opportunities and risks. From a short-term perspective, focus on the support zone between $88,900 and $89,000. If the price retraces to this range without breaking below, it may be appropriate to consider going long at lower levels, with targets extending toward the previous high around $90,500. Also, be cautious of further declines in US stocks, which could trigger a linked risk; setting a stop-loss at $88,700 as a baseline is advisable. Looking at the long term, the advancement of the US stablecoin regulation bill is attracting institutional capital, and technical upgrades at the protocol layer are providing fundamental support. These are structural positive factors. However, the concentration of leverage and policy uncertainties still require vigilance.