Some institutions seem to be overly conservative in their economic outlook for 2026. A 4.2% growth forecast? That clearly underestimates the current growth potential.

Let's start with the most straightforward change. The recent appreciation of the Renminbi is no joke — it has already broken through "7" by the end of the year, with a cumulative increase of 4% for the year, and this momentum continues into the new year. What follows? The Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle continues to advance, further narrowing the interest rate differential between China and the US. The power of this combination is that it immediately boosts the foreign currency deposit settlement motivation overseas. A large amount of cross-border capital is accelerating its return, directly enriching market liquidity. The influx of funds not only injects vitality but also boosts consumption and investment enthusiasm, leading to a moderate rise in price levels, and the previous deflationary pressures can gradually be alleviated. This positive cycle was simply not considered in the earlier forecasts.

Now, looking at the corporate side. By the end of the year, PPI has already turned positive month-on-month, international commodity prices have stabilized, and domestic anti-inflation policies are also taking effect, significantly improving the profitability environment for industrial enterprises. When companies make money, they naturally have the confidence to raise wages. Plus, with stable labor relations on our side and ample policy support, it is expected that salary increases for large enterprises will become the norm by 2026, which will have a considerable impact on boosting consumption.

From these two perspectives, a growth rate of over 5% is actually a relatively normal expectation, not something beyond expectations.