I just saw data from The Block: in December, CEX spot trading volume dropped to 1.13 trillion, the lowest level in 15 months. The days are also tough for DEXs, with trading volume halving directly. The entire circle is bearish, but my judgment is exactly the opposite—this extreme lull is often the silence before a market turn.

Why do I see it this way? Let's look at a few signals. The on-chain large holder address holdings haven't changed significantly; major whales haven't fled en masse, but are instead in hibernation. The sharp decline in trading volume, based on historical experience, often indicates retail panic selling is nearing its end, and the final phase of main force shakeouts is not far off.

What about the macro perspective? The Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle hasn't reversed, and the enthusiasm for Layer2 ecosystems and RWA tracks is still brewing—it's not time for explosion yet. This shows that the fundamental support is still there.

My current approach is very straightforward. The dollar-cost averaging ranges for BTC and ETH have reached prices worth considering, and some infrastructure and payment-related tokens are also worth selectively deploying. Risk control must be solid, leverage should be strictly managed, but that doesn't mean getting scared by short-term data and dumping all holdings. The key is to keep an eye on on-chain movements, especially when the BTC reserves on exchanges are continuously decreasing—that's the starting gun for a rebound.

Remember this logic: bottoms often form in despair, and rebounds often start from hesitation. Right now, the forum is quiet, but for those who are truly doing their homework, it's actually the best time for deep cultivation.