So you shorted gold at 🐎

1. Fed Unexpectedly Hawkish: March FOMC meeting reduced 2026 rate cuts from 3 to 1, first rate cut pushed to December; US Treasury yields break 4.3%, dollar index tops 105, gold holding costs surge

2. Oil prices fuel stagflation concerns: Middle East conflict pushes Brent to $107, inflation expectations heat up, which instead strengthens tightening expectations, traditional safe-haven logic fails

3. Profit-taking at highs + liquidity selling pressure: Previously approached $5,589 historical high, concentrated position liquidation, forming "decline—liquidation—further decline" negative feedback

🧭 Trend Assessment (Short/Medium/Long-term)

• Short-term (1–3 months): Oscillating downtrend, bearish dominated

◦ Support: International $4,090–$4,160; Domestic ¥940–¥965/gram

◦ Resistance: Rebound watch $4,480–$4,500; Domestic ¥1,000/gram round level

◦ Key variables: US CPI, non-farm payrolls, Middle East situation, Fed speakers

• Medium-term (6–12 months): Deep correction, bull market not over

◦ Institutional consensus: This round is a major correction within the bull market (historical bull market corrections 8%–15%), not a trend reversal

◦ Support logic: Central banks continue purchasing gold, de-dollarization, Fed will eventually cut rates, geopolitical risks normalized

◦ Target: ANZ Bank sees $6,000/oz by end of 2026

• Long-term (1+ years): Structural bull market continues

◦ Global central bank de-dollarization, reserve diversification, real interest rates in declining cycle, gold allocation value increases