Bitcoin cycle iron law: Risk warning and opportunity window amidst the big pump frenzy In the bull and bear cycles of Bitcoin, there lies an unchanging "anti-humanity principle": the more it rises like a rocket, the more it often prepares for a deep correction of "cut in half and then cut in half again". This is not a coincidence, but a cruel reality repeatedly verified by four key cycles. Looking back at history, every time the euphoria at the peak of a bull market ultimately ends with a brutal decline: - 2011: After a highlight of 31 dollars, a 93% drop caused the price to plummet to 2 dollars, nearly zeroing out; - In 2013: After peaking at $1150, an 86% retracement dragged it down to a low of $200; - 2017: The "myth" of nearly $20,000 shattered, with an 84% drop causing the price to retreat to $3,200; - 2021: After a peak of $69,000, a 77% drop still brought it down to a low of $15,000 in 2022. The average pullback of 84.5% over four cycles has long demonstrated: the "sugar" of a bull market is as sweet as the "bitter" of a bear market is fierce. The market never pauses its pullback steps because of investors' optimism; instead, it often quietly begins its downward trend when most people are chasing higher prices. From the perspective of cyclical patterns, the next market trend may still follow the script of "first surge and then decline": there is a high probability of a parabolic rise before a correction, and it might even touch a high of 175,000 USD, performing a "final frenzy." However, after the revelry, a decline of 70%-80% remains a high probability event—after all, history does not repeat itself simply, but it often bears a striking resemblance. For investors, what they should do right now is not to be blinded by the short-term big pump and follow the trend to chase high prices, but to maintain "contrarian thinking": viewing the current big pump as a risk warning signal, and preparing risk plans such as position control and stop-loss planning in advance. It is important to understand that those who can truly make money in the Bitcoin cycle are never those who celebrate at the peak, but those who can protect their principal before the bubble bursts and wait for the next opportunity. #BTC战略储备市场影响#

The long-standing expectation of interest rate cuts has finally settled, and after rising sharply, market prices have also retreated, entering a phase of volatile fluctuations. The market is currently full of differing opinions: some believe that a deep correction is imminent, some claim that the bull market has already ended, and others judge that we are currently at a historical peak. Of course, there is also a group of people who firmly believe that the bull market has, in fact, just begun. Today we are not analyzing short-term trends, but rather discussing something deeper: changes in policy and direction. The following is purely a personal opinion, for discussion only, not intended to provoke conflict, so please refrain from criticism if you disagree... On September 8, Nasdaq submitted a significant proposal to the SEC: to implement standardized tokenized stock trading. Most importantly, this time it was even an idea proposed by the SEC itself. Imagine if the stocks of giants like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla were truly operating in token form on the blockchain – it would be a complete upgrade of the global financial infrastructure. Looking back at the first half of 2025, the trading volume of NASDAQ stocks has reached $6.6 trillion, surpassing the NYSE comprehensively. Once stocks are fully tokenized, a massive influx of funds will pour in on-chain, equivalent to truly opening the doors of the US stock market to the world. For the crypto space, this is undoubtedly an epic positive development, as it will inject unprecedented liquidity into the entire market. If the NASDAQ proposal is ultimately approved by the SEC, it will mean that the U.S. national market system officially accepts blockchain as the underlying infrastructure, truly achieving institutional integration between Wall Street and the crypto world. Immediately following, on September 11, at the first OECD Global Financial Market Roundtable, the SEC Chairman delivered a speech stating clearly: "Today we must acknowledge that the wave of the crypto era has arrived." The entire speech is very worth revisiting. He proposed to build a super crypto financial platform that supports diversified services such as lending, staking, and trading, and emphasized that the United States will lead the world in welcoming this "new era full of infinite opportunities." The core point conveyed by Atkinson is to optimize the regulatory framework - to put it simply: reduce unnecessary rules and regulations, stimulate market vitality, and promote a fairer competitive environment. From Nasdaq's tokenization proposal to the SEC's public embrace of the future of cryptocurrencies, we may be witnessing the dawn of a whole new financial era.

Key Prices & Market Stats Bitcoin (BTC): ~$114,600, up/down slightly intraday. Ethereum (ETH): ~$4,340, a modest dip in recent sessions. Total market cap: ~$4.0-4.2 trillion. --- Major Drivers of Market Sentiment 1. Regulatory / ETF developments The U.S. SEC recently approved broader generic listing standards for commodity-based exchange-traded products. This makes it easier for crypto ETFs to launch across exchanges without needing separate applications per product. There’s increased institutional interest in Ethereum-based applications (stablecoins, tokenization), which is helping ETH’s outlook. Citi has set a year-end target around $4,300 for ETH, while some more bullish scenarios point to much higher. 2. Macro environment / Interest rates Expectations around upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts are feeding optimism into the market. Some economists believe that we might see a “jolt” for Bitcoin and altcoins when rate adjustments or macro signals surprise the market. 3. Technical & Seasonal Patterns Bitcoin has put on ~8% gains in September 2025 so far, putting it on track for its second-best September ever. However, short-term technical indicators are mixed: some bullish signals (if key support holds) versus bearish warning signs (resistance zones, divergence in indicators) are creating uncertainty. 4. Altcoins & Emerging Opportunities Solana (SOL) is getting attention, partly driven by speculation around spot ETF approvals and strong institutional liquidity. Smaller/meme tokens (e.g. Little Pepe) are also seeing viral interest, though these are higher risk plays. The altcoin season index suggests altcoins may be starting to outperform or at least see more upside potential in this phase. # market update#