CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin's New Capital Inflow Dries Up, Market May Enter Months of "Consolidation"

According to the latest analysis by CryptoQuant Chief Executive Officer Ki Young Ju, after experiencing severe volatility at the end of 2025, the bitcoin market has not collapsed or entered a rapid bull market as some expected. Instead, it is more likely to enter a prolonged and "tedious" consolidation phase. He believes the fundamental reason lies in a fundamental shift in market structure.

Ki points out that the core characteristic of the current market is the depletion of new capital inflows. Although capital has not flowed into bitcoin, it has instead rotated to traditional assets such as stocks and commodities. However, the change in capital inflow trends has also weakened the timeliness of previous cycle patterns.

Taking Strategy, which holds approximately 673,000 bitcoins, as an example, such long-term institutional holders are unlikely to sell on a large scale, making it difficult for the market to replay the depth and panic-driven declines similar to previous bear markets.

His viewpoint is also supported by on-chain data observed by CryptoZeno. Analysis shows that Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator indicates that bitcoin is currently in a typical transition zone of early accumulation, meaning the market is far from entering a frenzy phase.

According to Glassnode's on-chain weekly report, after adjustments since October last year, profit-taking pressure in the market has eased, derivative positions have been cleared, and capital flows from US spot ETFs have also begun to show net inflows again, making the overall market structure healthier.

However, market views on subsequent trends remain divided. Optimists like Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believe that if the regulatory outlook becomes clear and the macro market stabilizes, Bitcoin's recovery trend in 2026 is expected to continue. Cautious analysts, meanwhile, warn that downside risks remain in the coming months, although the near-term downside may be limited.

Overall, in the absence of large-scale new capital drivers and with long-term holders locking in substantial liquidity, bitcoin is unlikely to replay the cyclical boom-and-bust patterns of the past. Instead, it will enter a "tedious" phase of trading time for space and digesting weak hands through oscillations. This requires investors to adjust expectations and shift from chasing short-term volatility to longer-term positioning.

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