At the start of 2026, global financial markets remain hot. But this Friday, the market may face a real stress test — the U.S. December non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and at the same time the Supreme Court is also reviewing the constitutionality of certain policies.

Interestingly, despite the constant stream of recent news, from geopolitical developments to sector rotation, U.S. stocks and Treasuries have performed surprisingly steadily. The chief investment officer of a major asset management firm stated bluntly in an interview: "News is constantly bombarding us, but the market remains calm, which is indeed somewhat unusual."

However, this calm will soon be broken. Market strategists point out that options traders are already preparing for one of the most volatile trading days of the year. Based on the implied volatility from options expiring Friday, the S&P 500 could fluctuate ±0.9% in a single day.

The turbulence in the options market also reveals clues. Although the S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, Wall Street's fear gauge (VIX) has been climbing slowly since 2026, closing at 15.5 on Thursday. However, some analysts question whether investors are sufficiently vigilant, arguing that the options market's performance is actually still relatively mild.