At the end of last year, while having dinner with a friend I met during my travels, I was asked if there was anything interesting happening in the crypto world.

I mentioned the Bitcoin Inscriptions craze in 2023, the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF, the meme coin speculation frenzy on Solana, and Bitcoin’s all-time highs, among other things. After hearing this, my friend just smiled and shook his head.

“It’s all a bit lacking,” he said.

This friend of mine had purchased numerous related conceptual assets at a time when celebrities were flocking to buy or even personally issue NFTs, when Facebook rebranded to Meta and bet big on the metaverse, and when various DAO organizations aimed to buy a copy of the US Constitution, purchase an NBA team, or buy an island to build a utopia. To this day, he hasn’t sold any of these assets.

These narratives, in the eyes of the crypto world, have already become yesterday’s news, even “scams.” So, as an “outsider” to the crypto world, who came to experience it only briefly, I was curious to know how she viewed this perspective and whether she saw these investments as failures.

Her answer was:

“Of course not. Before I bought them, I had no knowledge or interest in the crypto world, but NFTs, the metaverse, and DAOs were the trends at the time. I thought if I didn’t participate, I’d be left behind. I know my NFTs have dropped a lot since then, but I hardly think about them anymore, and I don’t consider them a failed investment. It’s like when my family bought a Pentium computer when I was a child—who would say buying a computer at that time was a failure just because the Pentium processor eventually became outdated?”

I said that this example wasn’t quite accurate, because buying a computer is consumption, while buying NFTs or metaverse land is an investment. She laughed and said, “At least for me, NFTs and metaverse land aren’t investments—they’re consumption. Because investment is rational, it’s not driven by novelty or fashionable impulses, and investment doesn’t provide that sense of novelty or trendiness.”

Blockchain belongs to young people, and Web3 belongs to young people. We can use it to change the world or create our own world. But now, the crypto world is rapidly losing that attraction.

Beliefs Cannot Make Money, So Only Beliefs That Make Money Remain

The current crypto world is struggling with the myth of “all talents are exhausted” and is sinking into disillusionment.

What can blockchain technology truly achieve? Throughout the years of cryptocurrency’s development, a continuous stream of new narratives has fueled the industry’s progress, sustaining the “market dream rate” of cryptocurrencies. From the legendary story of 10,000 Bitcoins buying 2 pizzas, which spontaneously established the value of a new-generation currency, to the Ethereum ICO boom that transformed blockchain into a new, decentralized platform for asset issuance and financing, to DeFi (decentralized finance) upgrading blockchain into a bank capable of lending, supporting leverage, and facilitating various financial operations, and then to the emergence of “consumer-level applications” like NFTs, the Metaverse, and gaming.

Blockchain can change the world, and cryptocurrency can change the world. If you maintain this belief and stay within this circle with a curious attitude toward every new technological innovation, you will eventually find your opportunity and reap your rewards. In the past, many young people were drawn to cryptocurrency’s vibrant energy, joining the crypto wave as bold pioneers of their era, and changing their lives through the fascinating journey of cryptocurrency.

From the end of 2021 to 2022, celebrities worldwide rushed to buy or even personally issue NFTs. Facebook rebranded to Meta, and various DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations) emerged, hoping to buy a copy of the U.S. Constitution, purchase an NBA team, or buy an island to build a utopia. That period felt like the “golden age” of blockchain, or Web3, in my mind. In 2022, in Dali, a vibrant and “artsy” Web3 street event took place, growing from a small local youth community of two or three members to thirty or forty people, and eventually nearing 100 participants. In a truly decentralized fashion, it was powered by love and passion.

Also in 2022, the “Tiaohai” Tavern, which later secured tens of millions of yuan in angel funding, garnered more attention due to its unique “Web3” features. Liang You, the tavern’s owner, mentioned in an interview at the time that he wasn’t a Web3 insider, but the tavern’s organizational structure adopted the DAO model from Web3. It also launched China’s first co-branded beer with the Boring Ape NFT collection.

Twitter has long been the most active social media platform in the crypto community. In the past, it was filled with insightful industry analyses, projections, and lively debates on various directions of the industry. Today, however, such content has all but disappeared, replaced by trivial discussions, such as the name of Binance founder CZ’s dog, “success stories” shared by self-proclaimed “crypto gurus,” and even gossip about “female college students” and “business K.”

This shift reflects the direct consequence of the crypto industry’s disillusionment with the myth of “value innovation.” As the U.S. government becomes increasingly friendly to cryptocurrencies, the crypto community is both excited and anxious, fearing that “this might be the last bull market.” Initially, the decline of narrative assets like NFTs (labeled as “digital luxury goods”) or the “digital real estate dream” of metaverse land was blamed on poor project execution. Over time, however, the community grew indifferent, even dismissive, towards these narratives.

In this atmosphere of disillusionment, exchanges, market makers, and key opinion leaders (KOLs) have emerged as the most influential forces in the crypto space. When a coin gets listed on an exchange, it gains access to a larger pool of users who do not engage in blockchain-based transactions. If a market maker is involved, it indicates that capital is being deployed to “organize” the market, manipulating price trends to make the “game” more appealing. In the crypto world, these “organized” funds are often referred to as “cabal groups.” If a KOL is backing a coin, they will advocate for their own holdings, with the most powerful KOLs, known as “car heads,” driving others to follow their on-chain movements.

At the recent Consensus 2025 conference in Hong Kong, many in the crypto community self-deprecatingly observed that although the event was titled the “Consensus Conference,” attendees still failed to find any true consensus. Despite this, project developers continued to spend lavishly on high-end venues and extravagant events, with one group even spending HKD 600,000 on drinks in a single night.

However, no amount of celebration can erase the underlying confusion and anxiety plaguing the crypto community about its future direction. In the crypto space today, there are no more fairy tales where belief in the technology leads to profits—only the belief in making money remains.

The “Nasdaq”ization of the currency circle, the original sin of the “crypto-second religion”

When the crypto space began subconsciously likening itself to a decentralized “Nasdaq,” the cracks in cryptocurrency—perhaps the world’s largest “cyber religion”—became apparent.

People interpret the value of cryptocurrency from various perspectives, with the most common being a financial one. However, in my view, cryptocurrency’s true value lies in its belief system—the value of a “cyber religion.”

From purchasing two pizzas with 10,000 Bitcoins to becoming the “hard currency” of the darknet, to being adopted as the legal tender in El Salvador, and later the United States establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve, cryptocurrency has achieved remarkable milestones. These achievements couldn’t have been planned or predicted. It is the belief of people across the globe in Bitcoin that has fueled this “cyber religion” through its 16-year journey. Without people sincerely believing Bitcoin could become the world’s currency, or believing Satoshi Nakamoto would never touch his/her estimated 1 million Bitcoins, Bitcoin would not have developed as steadily as it has.

The “Nasdaq-ization” of the crypto space began with the advent of Ethereum. This marked the first split of the “cyber religion” and the birth of the “crypto-second religion.” Bitcoin purists hold onto Bitcoin’s role as a currency and resist its blockchain’s expansion at the cost of security, stability, or decentralization. Bitcoin followers place faith in Bitcoin’s inherent value, while Ethereum believers see its blockchain as a means to create more value.

“Bitcoin is gold, Ethereum is silver.” Through innovations like ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, the Metaverse, and blockchain-based games, Ethereum reached its peak, securing a significant place in the crypto space. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s founder, emerged as a “god” in crypto, second only to Satoshi Nakamoto.

However, from the outset, the “crypto-second religion” has been unstable. Unlike gold or silver, which don’t need to prove their utility to validate their worth, Ethereum constantly seeks value validation, much like life itself, where one is always expected to submit an answer. While Bitcoin can be compared to gold, Ethereum doesn’t quite match silver, as it requires constant value verification.

Rather than seeing Vitalik Buterin as a “god,” he is perhaps more like the Steve Jobs of crypto. His situation now mirrors the early struggles of Jobs. In 1985, Apple faced setbacks due to IBM’s competition. Jobs was ousted from Apple due to disagreements with the board. Nearly 20 years later, Ethereum faced competition from Solana, and Vitalik Buterin, when stating he would not seek government “reconciliation” for benefits, transformed from “V God” to “V Dog.”

In the speculative crypto market, unlike crowdfunding platforms like Kickstarter, Vitalik Buterin has not received the same level of patience. For instance, many games on Kickstarter have taken years to develop, such as “Shenmue 3” (over 4 years) and “Star Citizen” (over 12 years still in Alpha testing). But in the crypto market, patience is limited.

Ultimately, whether Ethereum’s innovations—such as NFTs—will succeed or fail depends on timing, opportunity, and execution. NFTs, for example, took about four years to explode, even though computer-generated art dates back to the 1950s. Only recently has blockchain technology allowed digital art to be presented with uniqueness and traceability, finding a perfect medium for the art.

Why, then, has the crypto space lost its patience this time?

Real Bull Market or Fake Bull Market?

Bitcoin reached a record high last year, sparking much discussion in the cryptocurrency community. The term “carving a boat to seek a sword” refers to using past trends to predict future market movements. One of the key rules in this context is that Bitcoin’s halving event every four years tends to trigger a major market rally. The expectation is that Bitcoin will surge to new highs, hover at those levels, and that altcoins, especially Ethereum, will become the stars of the “second half” of the bull market, accompanied by new blockchain narratives promising explosive returns.

When Bitcoin set a new all-time high last year, many in the crypto community still believed in this principle. However, unlike previous bull markets, there was a noticeable sense of anxiety this time. This anxiety stems from a crisis of faith—when even the U.S. government stepped in to “take over,” it seemed as though opportunities for retail investors would continue to shrink.

For most people in crypto, Bitcoin’s record high doesn’t directly lead to profits because Bitcoin’s market cap is too large, making it difficult to quickly achieve financial freedom by investing in it. What they hoped for was the “altcoin” boom following Bitcoin’s rise.

However, the conditions necessary to replicate the “altcoin” frenzy do not exist this time. First, funds flowing into Bitcoin spot ETFs are mainly active in traditional financial markets and not directly involved in on-chain activities like DeFi, NFTs, or the Metaverse, as was the case in past cycles. Additionally, there is no fresh, compelling crypto-native narrative uniting the community or attracting new participants from outside the ecosystem.

After waiting for three years, is this the outcome people expected? The crypto community’s collective reluctance to accept the status quo led to the creation of a “false bull market.” Insiders now refer to this situation as “PvP”—in the previous bull market, there was a shared enthusiasm for new narratives like Web3, even extending beyond blockchain industries. This time, however, there’s no shared vision. People are simply trying to be the “smart ones,” profiting from others’ losses.

This scenario bears a striking resemblance to the ending of Alice in the Land of Dying—a series of difficult survival games created by the final thoughts of dying people, forming a collective illusion of survival.

For what some refer to as the “cyber religion” of crypto, this is a deeply troubling development. It signals a dangerous shift: in its confusion, disillusionment, and anxious pursuit of profit, the crypto space has shed the idealism and sanctity that once defined it.

Pessimistic Honesty is Actually Helpless Self-Diminishment

The crypto world has begun to call cryptocurrencies a “big casino.”

Last year, I met up offline with an old friend who specializes in meme coin speculation. Meme coins were his entry point into the cryptocurrency market, and they remain the only area he’s interested in within the crypto space.

“I just think it’s fun, it’s something our generation plays with. Meme coins—well, if you take away the word ‘coin’—are wild, unrealistic, and hard to understand in the real world. But in the cryptocurrency market, people accept it, and this culture exists. When I realized that my sense or aesthetic around these things could make money, I thought meme coins were really cool and fun.”

After he said this, we clinked glasses. As the alcohol spread through my body, my mind flashed back to the meme coins that once excited me—like $DOGE, the Shiba Inu-inspired coin that Musk repeatedly mentioned, or $PEOPLE, which aimed to crowdsource funds to purchase a copy of the U.S. Constitution…

But now, the “fun” golden key that once unlocked meme coins is nearly useless. If you strip everything away, close your eyes, there’s only one word left:
“Bet.”

Solana, the most active “crypto casino” in this recent fake bull market, has seen over 640,000 meme coins appear since April 1 last year, and this is only the data up to early July. In just three months, over 7,000 new meme coins were created daily on Solana.

The disappearance of the “cyber religion” followers corresponds to the rise of “crypto gamblers.” These gamblers send strings of letters and numbers—token contract addresses (CA)—through various chat apps every day. With this address, they can locate the token they want to trade.

“Smart money” and “dev” are the key success factors for crypto gamblers. “Smart money” refers to addresses on the blockchain with a high winning rate, making them highly sought after. Many gamblers follow these addresses’ trades and buy accordingly. “Dev” is short for “developer,” the creators of the tokens. Gamblers look for reliable “bet promoters” and avoid tokens launched by creators who have a history of dumping their holdings early.

Objectively speaking, the dominant narrative in this fake bull market has been the “crypto casino” story. What was originally a reluctant honesty about the current situation has now become a numb justification.

This is the most severe challenge the “cyber religion” of cryptocurrency has faced so far—a crack in the idealism and sanctity of the industry. No one knows when or how this crack will be mended, or whether it can be repaired at all.

Cryptocurrency’s Consensus Is Not Unbreakable; It Needs to Keep Evolving

The greatest value of the “new narrative” created in the crypto world by blockchain’s innovative attempts lies in enabling the “cyber religion” to appear before the world with a more diversified image. This allows more people to become interested in and better understand cryptocurrency through different avenues. In the past, this growth was closely tied to the rising price of cryptocurrencies, but now, they have become decoupled.

The rise in cryptocurrency prices mainly serves to reinforce the faith of existing “believers.” The incredible wealth stories associated with cryptocurrencies don’t directly contribute to their “evangelism.”

Does the crypto community need a new narrative? Yes. Are we in a rush? No rush. The world continues to evolve, and technological progress will bring about new demands. It’s likely that, by next year—or perhaps even tomorrow—the answer to the question, “What more can blockchain do?” will emerge organically. Even if it doesn’t, was the old narrative ever truly sufficient? No, it can still be improved, and further exploration is needed.

If cryptocurrency is merely a “casino,” a paradise for speculators, then its countdown to irrelevance has already begun. How the crypto community views this industry will determine how it presents itself to the world.

The young people of this generation may still find cryptocurrency cool, but what about the next generation? And the generation after that? How will they view cryptocurrencies?

I don’t know, my friend. The answer is blowing in the wind.

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