Market paradox: Why is Bitcoin falling despite the constant good news?

Bitcoin (BTC) has lost 6% of its value in just eight days after reaching a new all-time high, reflecting the increasing volatility evident in the crypto market. Recent technical signals have consistently issued warnings, while the movements of whales – which had previously stalled in the short term – have begun to recover, indicating that some large investors may be quietly returning to the accumulation phase.

However, the overall picture is still tinged with negative colors as key technical indicators begin to deteriorate. The Ichimoku Cloud model is signaling a marked weakening, while the BTC price is currently trading below key support zones. With the fluctuation right above the $104,584 mark, the risk of forming a new "death cross" is gradually present, and if demand does not soon regain the initiative in the resistance areas, a deeper decline is completely possible.

The number of Bitcoin whales recovers after a sharp decline

The number of Bitcoin wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC – a group commonly referred to as "whales" – has slightly increased to 2,006 addresses, after hitting a low of 2,002 earlier in the week.

Earlier, on May 25, this wallet group had sharply decreased from 2,021 addresses, reflecting a notable short term pullback in the behavior of large investors. However, the recent resurgence indicates that some whales may have begun to return to the crypto market, increasing Accumulation.

Although the fluctuations are still modest, such movements are closely monitored by analysts, as they often serve as early indicators of changes in market sentiment or price trends.

Bitcoin whales | Source: Santiment. Monitoring the behavior of "whales" – investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin – is a key factor, as they have a significant influence on liquidity and price volatility. When the number of whale wallets decreases, it may reflect profit-taking or asset redistribution, often signaling that the market is entering an "accumulation phase" and carries a risk of correction.

On the contrary, if the number of stable or increasing large wallets – as is currently being recorded – this could be a factor supporting investor sentiment, helping to consolidate the high price range and limit selling pressure.

Notably, the return of large investors to the market after a strong retreat may indicate that confidence is gradually being restored among key players. This contributes to mitigating the risk of large-scale sell-offs while providing a foundation to maintain the current price level of Bitcoin.

Technical indicators turn bearish as BTC struggles below key support levels

The Ichimoku Cloud chart of Bitcoin is currently signaling negatively in the short term, indicating that the price trend is facing significant downward pressure.

Specifically, the price action is currently below the cloud – shaded in two shades of green and red – indicating that Bitcoin is trading in a weaker zone compared to both historical momentum and future expectations.

The cloud portion in front turns red, reflecting the likelihood that the downtrend will continue, unless the price makes a strong breakout above the upper edge of the cloud to reverse the situation.

! Ichimoku Cloud Indicator on the 4-hour BTC/USDT chart | Source: TradingViewThe Tenkan-sen line (màu xanh) cut down and is below the Kijun-sen line (màu đỏ), confirming that the short-term momentum is weakening. Notably, both lines are tilted downwards, further reinforcing the view that the bears are still in the lead.

In addition, the Chikou Span (the green lagging line) is also below both the current price and the cloud, an additional signal indicating that the crypto market has not shown clear signs of recovery.

However, one point worth noting is that the future cloud is showing signs of contraction, indicating that the market may be preparing to enter the accumulation phase or a state of equilibrium. Nevertheless, at this moment, the main components of the Ichimoku indicator are all in agreement with the bearish trend. To reverse into an uptrend, the price needs to break through the cloud and change the front cloud from red to green – a change that requires a significant shift in market sentiment.

Bitcoin faces the risk of forming a "death cross"

Bitcoin is nearing the completion of the "death cross" pattern – a technical signal implying negativity – and current indicators suggest that this scenario is likely to materialize. Currently, BTC is still trying to hold steady just above the important support level at $104,584 – a price range that has often acted as a 'lifeline' helping the crypto market avoid deep declines in recent correction sessions.

If this support zone is breached, the downtrend may continue with the next target levels at $102,135 and further at $100,694 – especially if selling pressure continues to increase.

! BTC/USDT 4-hour chart | Source: TradingViewThe recurrence of the "death cross", combined with weak price action around the support zone, is significantly increasing the probability of a deeper correction in the short term.

On the contrary, if Bitcoin can recover and regain its upward momentum, the resistance level at $106,726 will be the first challenge. Breaking through this level could trigger a surge towards $110,728, and if buying power is reinforced, it is possible that the price may approach the $112,000 threshold in the near future.

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