DOGE breakdown the August curse? The cup and handle pattern aims straight for 2.18 USD

The price of Dogecoin (DOGE) is maintaining above the important psychological level of 0.2 USD as the market enters a challenging phase. Technical analysts note two significant signals at the same time: the TD Sequential buy indicator and the cup and handle pattern – both of which could shape the next direction of the largest memecoin in the market.

However, the history of negative fluctuations in August and the third quarter reminds investors that the rise of DOGE is often not sustainable during this period.

Technical Signals: TD Sequential and Cup and Handle Pattern

On August 26, 2025, DOGE began to show signs of recovery as the TD Sequential indicator issued a buy signal after 9 consecutive red candles on the 4-hour chart. This is one of the signals that analysts often pay attention to, as the TD Sequential system developed by Thomas Demark is well-known for its ability to identify trend exhaustion points.

According to theory, after completing a cycle of 9 consecutive bearish candles, the market often tends to slow down and even reverse, as the sellers have exhausted most of their momentum. Therefore, analyst Ali Martinez believes that Dogecoin may enter a short-term technical rebound, as the selling pressure appears to be easing.

Along with the short-term signals, a larger picture is forming on the price chart. Trader Tardigrade, who regularly analyzes classic technical patterns, points out that DOGE has completed much of the structure of the "cup and handle" pattern that has been developing over the past two months.

Essentially, this model reflects the accumulation – adjustment – breakout phase:

In technical analysis, this is one of the most reliable bullish patterns, widely used by traders to predict further targets.

According to standard measurements from the model shape:

These targets are not random but are based on the principle of measuring the height of the pattern and "adding" to the breakout point, indicating long-term breakout potential if the pattern continues to develop properly.

However, not everyone is optimistic. Morecryptoonl, another market observer, emphasizes that the entire current structure of DOGE is standing firm on the support level of 0.2 USD. This is considered an important boundary:

In other words, DOGE is currently caught between two opposing scenarios: one is to trigger a classic bullish pattern aimed at higher levels, and the other is to continue sliding if the "foundation" of 0.2 USD is broken.

Q3 – The "unpredictable" season of Dogecoin

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at 0.22 USD, just slightly above the 0.2 USD mark – a threshold many traders consider the "death line" between the bulls and the bears. DOGE holding steady above this support zone could be a determining factor in whether the current recovery is just a short-term bounce or the beginning of a more sustainable upward trend.

Historical data shows that Q3 often brings unpredictable results for Dogecoin, with many instances of strong fluctuations in both directions:

• 2019: DOGE decreased by 28.9%, reflecting the lack of buying power during the typically quiet summer period.
• 2020: reversal trend, coin increased by 13.4%, benefiting from the altcoin speculation wave before the strong price increase period of 2021.
• 2021: decreased by 18%, a time when the crypto market corrected sharply after the explosion at the beginning of the year.
• 2022: loss of 7.14%, in the context of a weakening overall market due to global inflation and monetary policy tightening.
• 2023: decreased by 6.80%, continuing the phase of altcoin stagnation, lacking growth momentum.
• 2024: continue to decrease by 8.26%, demonstrating the negative cyclical nature of Dogecoin in Q3.
• 2025: going against the current, DOGE has risen sharply by 28.8% to date – a rare increase in the history of Q3, raising hopes that the "red season" cycle of Dogecoin may be changing.

Source: CryptorankObserving the overall picture, it is noticeable that August and Q3 are rarely stable with DOGE. This volatility stems from various factors:

• Summer liquidity often decreases in the financial market, leading to exaggerated price fluctuations.
• Dogecoin is heavily influenced by speculative sentiment, as it lacks many practical applications compared to foundational blockchains, causing its price to be easily volatile according to short-term capital flows.
• The up and down cycles of altcoins are often stronger than those of Bitcoin, and Dogecoin is no exception.

Therefore, the fact that DOGE increased by nearly 30% in Q3 2025 can be seen as a special signal, indicating a change in price behavior pattern. However, analysts emphasize that the sustainability of this upward trend will only be confirmed if the support level of 0.20 USD continues to hold in the coming weeks.

Technical levels to watch

In addition to the psychological support level of 0.2 USD, the Dogecoin market is currently focusing on a series of important technical milestones, especially the Fibonacci retracement and extension levels – tools commonly used by traders to predict support areas, resistance, and potential reversal points.

( Support zone - verify the strength of the buyers

• 61.8% Fibonacci at 0.21 USD: This is considered the "golden ratio" in technical analysis. In many cases, prices tend to reverse sharply from this level, as it reflects a natural balance between buyers and sellers.
• 78.6% Fibonacci at 0.2 USD: This is the "last bastion" before the price definitively breaches the 0.2 USD mark. If DOGE adjusts to this area and rebounds, it could be a signal confirming that buying pressure is still significantly present.

Both levels are expected by many traders to become a short-term "launch pad" if DOGE returns to test.

) Important resistances – the "stop stations" of the price

If DOGE maintains above 0.2 USD and confirms an upward trend, the next levels of Fibonacci extension will act as resistance areas to overcome:

• 0.2810 USD ###Fibonacci 100%### – the first milestone in the recovery scenario.
• 0.3017 USD (123.6%) – marks an important psychological boundary, as surpassing 0.3 USD could trigger FOMO from investors.
• 0.3151 USD (138%) – a minor resistance level, indicating mid-term expansion strength.
• 0.3386 USD (161.8% ) – the "peak" of the short-term trend, where many traders may take profits.

According to observers, these thresholds are likely to become technical stopping points, where the market temporarily balances before making a clearer directional decision.

Further, the price targets set by Trader Tardigrade – 0.82 USD and 2.18 USD – can only be achieved if the cup and handle pattern on the larger time frame continues to develop and is confirmed by a breakout in trading volume. These levels are strategic, not for short-term trading, but suitable for patient investors pursuing a long-term trend.

Taylor