US Government Shutdown Ends: Trump's $2,000 Tariff Dividend and Crypto Liquidity Boom

The U.S. government shutdown, the longest in history at 41 days, is finally over after the Senate passed a funding bill, sending it to the House for a vote as early as Wednesday. This resolution, backed by eight Democratic senators breaking ranks, reopens agencies like the SEC and IRS, ending furloughs for 800,000 federal workers and restoring critical services. Amid this relief, President Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend—a rebate check funded by import tariffs—looms as a potential stimulus that could flood markets with liquidity, boosting Trump tariff impacts on crypto and the economy.

Senate’s Bipartisan Breakthrough: Funding Bill Passes 60-40

The Senate’s 60-40 vote advanced a compromise bill funding most agencies through January, omitting Democratic demands for Affordable Care Act subsidies but including backpay and SNAP extensions. Senate Majority Leader John Thune hailed it as a “great victory,” while Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed disappointment but supported the end to “deep financial pain.” The House, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, plans a Wednesday vote, with Trump endorsing the deal: “I would say so.”

The shutdown, starting October 1, delayed jobs reports, inflation data, and SEC approvals, costing $14 billion in GDP. Reopening restores air traffic and food aid, easing $1.1 billion crypto liquidations.

• Bill Details: Funds to January; backpay, SNAP through 2026.
• Vote Breakdown: 8 Democrats + Republicans; House Wednesday.
• Economic Cost: $14B GDP hit; 800K furloughed workers.

Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend: Stimulus or Trade War Bonus?

Trump’s tariff bonus proposal—$1,000-$2,000 checks from tariff revenues—could inject $500 billion+ into consumer pockets, echoing 2020-2021 stimulus that pumped BTC 900%. Funded by 10-20% tariffs on all imports (60% on China), the plan prioritizes debt reduction but rewards citizens. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified it may come as tax cuts on tips, overtime, and Social Security, not direct payments: “The dividend could come in lots of forms.”

Tariff revenues hit $195 billion in FY2025 (up 150% YoY), with the bill adding $2.3-$2.4 trillion. Critics warn of 1-3% inflation, but proponents see it as rebalancing, with 70% consumer spending fueling GDP.

• Check Range: $1,000-$2,000 per person (non-high-income).
• Funding: $195B tariffs; $2.3T tax bill.
• Form: Tax cuts or rebates; congressional approval needed.

Crypto Impact: Liquidity Surge and Tariff Tailwinds

The shutdown’s end drains $1.2 trillion from the Treasury General Account (TGA), injecting liquidity like stealth QE. BTC rebounded 2.5% to $106,000, with $50B+ volume and 67% institutional optimism. Altcoins like Solana (+2.5% to $158) rotate on $336M ETF inflows, while ETH dips to $3,385 on zero ETF net inflows ($184M outflows). Trump tariff policies, facing Supreme Court review November 5, could strengthen the dollar (DXY >100), pressuring risk assets, but stimulus offsets with 15% retail crypto inflows post-2021 checks.

• BTC Reaction: +2.5% to $106K; TGA drain bullish.
• Altcoin Flows: Solana $336M inflows; ETH $184M outflows.
• Tariff Risk: 1-3% inflation; BTC hedge potential.

2025 Bitcoin Price Prediction: $130K-$200K Consensus

Bitcoin price prediction for 2025 targets $130K-$200K. Changelly $123,849; CoinDCX $131,500. VanEck $180K-$200K on stimulus. Bull catalysts: Tariff dividends; bear risks: $100K test.

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