#特朗普对等关税政策将公布# How harsh is Trump's "trade club"? This tariff plan is different from previous ones in that it adopts a "dual approach" model:

1. Basic Tariff: A uniform 10% tariff is imposed on all imported products, whether it's French red wine or Japanese electronics, all treated equally.
2. Reciprocal adjustment: If a country imposes tariffs on the United States exceeding 10%, the U.S. will impose additional taxes based on (the country's tariff ÷ 2). For example, if Germany's tariff on the U.S. is 20%, then the U.S. will impose an additional 10% tax on Germany, totaling a tariff of 20%.
3. Automobile exception: A uniform 25% tariff is imposed on all imported cars, meaning that regardless of the country, anyone wanting to sell cars in the U.S. must pay this fee. Sounds "fair"? But in practice, China and Vietnam are the biggest victims of this policy, especially China, which faces a direct 34% tariff, significantly higher than that of other countries.
When the news first came out, the market was actually excited. After all, Trump initially mentioned a "10% reciprocal tariff," which was manageable for the market, leading Bitcoin to briefly surge to $90,000 and U.S. stocks to experience a short rally. But once the details were announced, investors realized the situation was not that simple—
1. Imposing a 34% tariff on China essentially cuts off a significant portion of goods from the U.S. market, meaning costs will rise substantially.
2. A 25% tax on the automotive industry is good news for American car manufacturers (Tesla's stock rose 5.3% at close), but it's a big trouble for European and Japanese automakers.
3. The global supply chain has been disrupted, and many multinational companies are facing supply chain reconstruction, which will inevitably lead to turmoil in the short term. Ultimately, Bitcoin has fallen from its high, and the three major U.S. stock indices have collectively plummeted, leaving the market in a state of gloom.
April 9 is a key date! Currently, this policy is set to be officially implemented on April 5, while the "reciprocal tariffs" portion will take effect on April 9. This means that countries around the world have one more week to make adjustments. If they are willing to reduce tariffs on the U.S. to 10%, then the U.S. will correspondingly adjust, but this "benefit" does not apply to China. This means that in the coming days, the attitudes and response strategies of governments will become key to market trends.
1. How will Europe and Japan respond? If they are willing to lower tariffs on the US to 10%, they can avoid higher tax rates.
2. What should China do? If a 34% tariff is really implemented, it will have a significant impact on the export industry, and the market is watching China's next move.
3. Mexico and Canada are excluded, which may mean that the NAFTA countries will still receive certain preferential treatment.
Trump's move is clearly a "declaration of war" to the world, not just targeting a specific country, but reshaping the overall trade landscape. Compared to the trade war in 2018, this time the "universal tariff + reciprocal adjustments" policy is more aggressive, with a broader impact, and the market turmoil is more intense. In the coming days, how countries negotiate and how the market digests this shock will determine the next direction for Bitcoin, US stocks, and global trade. April 9 will become a key watershed for the market.