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Gate Research Institute: Web3 Industry Policy and Macro Follow-up (2025.3.28-2025.4.2)
Introduction
This week, the Web3 industry has seen many important events in terms of policy and macroeconomics. On March 28, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the core PCE price index rose 2.79% year-on-year in February, reaching the highest level since December of last year. Internationally, Kazakhstan is planning to establish a "national crypto bank" to unify the management and regulation of cryptocurrency transactions nationwide. On March 31, global regulatory easing has taken place, with 47 countries relaxing crypto regulations since 2020. On April 1, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted for the first time this year, with the price index soaring for the second consecutive month. On April 2, the Trump administration is considering using a new financial instrument called "BitBonds" as part of its Bitcoin reserve strategy.
Abstract
Key Events of Focus
March 28 - The U.S. Core PCE Price Index rose 2.79% year-on-year in February, overall above market expectations.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that the core PCE price index rose 2.79% year-on-year in February, the highest level since December last year, exceeding market expectations of 2.7% and January's 2.6%. The index increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, marking the largest increase since January 2024. Meanwhile, the overall PCE price index rose 2.5% year-on-year in February, aligning with expectations and prior values; month-on-month, it increased by 0.3%, also in line with expectations. Following the data release, U.S. stock futures continued to decline, U.S. Treasury yields remained low, and the dollar index rose moderately.
Core PCE inflation in the U.S. exceeded expectations in February, indicating that inflationary pressures remain stubborn, which further delays the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and strengthens the outlook for "high rates to persist longer." Following the data release, the dollar strengthened while U.S. stocks came under pressure, reflecting market concerns over tightening monetary policy. This trend has a ripple effect on the global economy: a strong dollar exacerbates the depreciation pressure on emerging market currencies, increasing their foreign debt repayment costs; global capital may accelerate its return to the U.S., leading to capital outflow risks for emerging markets. At the same time, the Fed's delay in rate cuts forces other major central banks to maintain a hawkish stance, limiting the space for global monetary easing. The continued high interest rate environment suppresses the performance of risk assets and increases volatility in financial markets.
March 28 - Kazakhstan plans to establish a national crypto bank to promote comprehensive regulation of crypto transactions.
Kazakhstan is planning to establish a "national cryptocurrency bank" to unify the management and regulation of cryptocurrency transactions across the country. This institution will be responsible for core functions such as clearing, payment, and auditing of crypto assets, aiming to bring the large amount of currently gray-area crypto activities into a compliant framework. Legislators in the country have pointed out that approximately 90% of cryptocurrency transactions currently occur outside legal supervision, a phenomenon that not only affects tax revenue and financial security but also poses risks for money laundering and capital flight. Therefore, establishing an official regulatory framework has become a priority for the authorities.
From a market perspective, Kazakhstan's move represents that emerging market countries are gradually breaking away from the past role of being "mining-friendly with loose regulations" and are shifting towards building a more controllable and institutionalized cryptocurrency financial system. If the country successfully establishes a national crypto bank, it may serve as a reference model for other resource-rich countries and promote regional regulatory convergence.
Although the short-term impact on the global market is limited, this trend may accelerate a new phase of "regulatory compliance coexisting with state intervention," bringing structural challenges and opportunities for centralized trading platforms and on-chain transparent financial systems. [2]
March 31 - Global regulation is easing, with 47 countries relaxing cryptocurrency regulations since 2020
Since 2020, global cryptocurrency regulatory policies have been continuously evolving. According to statistics, 47 countries have actively relaxed or simplified regulations related to cryptocurrencies, including trading, holding, tax reporting, ICO issuance, and mining activities, indicating that countries are gradually accepting and embracing this emerging asset class. In contrast, only 4 countries have chosen to tighten regulations during the same period, even taking extreme measures to completely ban cryptocurrency trading and mining. This comparison clearly reflects that the overall regulatory trend worldwide is moving towards a more open, inclusive, and compliant direction.
The shift in regulation not only affects capital flows but also influences the layout of industries and the direction of technological development to a certain extent. The relaxation of regulations in more countries means that the integration of the traditional financial system and the crypto ecosystem is accelerating. At the same time, it provides a broader development space for Web3 startup projects, crypto financial services, and on-chain applications. Although a few countries still maintain a conservative attitude, the mainstream trend has gradually tilted towards "conditional acceptance," which will help enhance market confidence and attract more institutional investors to enter the market. 【3】
April 1 - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI shrank for the first time this year, with the price index soaring for the second consecutive month.
The data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that in March, the U.S. manufacturing PMI fell below the boom-bust line for the first time this year, indicating a contraction. The ISM manufacturing index for March was 49, below the expected 49.5, and down from 50.3 in February, with 50 serving as the dividing line. The price index in March surged 7 points to 69.4, the highest since June 2022. Meanwhile, factory orders and employment data showed weakness, reflecting the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the U.S. economy. Specifically, the factory orders index plummeted 3.4 points to 45.2, marking a new low since May 2023. The inventory index rose to 53.4, the highest level since October 2022.
The ISM survey pointed out that the uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the Trump administration's tariff policy is shaking the confidence of American manufacturers. It is reported that Trump plans to announce a new reciprocal tariff policy on imported goods on Wednesday, aimed at improving trade imbalances, promoting domestic investment in the U.S., and driving the localization of key products. Due to the unclear details of the policy, some companies have postponed their investment plans. [4]
April 2 - The Trump administration plans to launch "Bitcoin Bonds" to expand Bitcoin reserves.
The Trump administration is considering adopting a new financial instrument called "BitBonds" as part of its Bitcoin reserve strategy. This proposal aims to provide funding support for the accumulation of Bitcoin reserves for the country by issuing bonds linked to Bitcoin, without directly utilizing the federal budget. [5]
The proposal suggests that the government issue dollar-denominated bonds with an annual interest rate of 1%, which is far lower than the rates of traditional U.S. Treasury bonds. The design goals of the Bitcoin bonds include: reducing the interest burden of national debt, providing funding for the country’s Bitcoin reserves, offering tax-advantaged savings tools to American households, and gradually reducing federal debt through asset appreciation. Specifically, 90% of the bond proceeds will be used for general government purposes, and 10% will be used to purchase Bitcoin, allowing investors to enjoy a dual return of fixed interest and potential appreciation of Bitcoin.
The implementation of this strategy could save the U.S. government a substantial amount in interest expenses and reduce national debt through the potential appreciation of Bitcoin, achieving sustainability in U.S. finances and reinforcing America's leadership position in the global financial landscape. However, critics point out that the high volatility and uncertainty of Bitcoin prices may pose risks, and the government's direct involvement in the cryptocurrency market could spark regulatory and policy controversies. Therefore, although "Bitcoin Bonds" offer an innovative fiscal strategy, its actual effects and feasibility still need to overcome challenges related to legal, regulatory, and market acceptance.
Conclusion
This week, the cryptocurrency market has been jointly affected by macroeconomic policies and regulatory dynamics. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce shows that the core PCE price index rose by 2.79% year-on-year in February, reaching its highest level since December of last year. The PCE price index indicates that inflationary pressures remain stubborn, further delaying market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Internationally, Kazakhstan is planning to establish a "national crypto bank" to unify the management and regulation of cryptocurrency trading across the country. Globally, regulatory easing is underway, with 47 countries actively relaxing or simplifying relevant regulations on cryptocurrencies, including areas such as trading, holding, tax reporting, ICO issuance, and mining activities. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that the U.S. manufacturing PMI fell below the boom-bust line for the first time this year in March, indicating a contraction. The Trump administration is considering using a new financial instrument called "BitBonds" as part of its Bitcoin reserve strategy.
Current economic data indicates that the U.S. economy is still in a downward cycle. However, it is noteworthy that against the backdrop of economic pressure, several countries led by the United States are accelerating the improvement of cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks, creating a more favorable policy environment for the integration of traditional financial systems and digital assets.
Reference Materials:
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