You are reading the weekly industry hotspot report generated for you by the Gate.io AI Lab. Get an overview of the most noteworthy market trends and important events from last week, and we recommend investment analysis and financial strategies for you.
Word count: 8279 words ｜ Reading time 11.2 minutes.
Table of Contents:
Market Trends
Analysis of Capital Flow and Price Volatility
Hot Topics
Major Events
Global Policies
Investment Analysis
1. Market Trend Analysis
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market capitalization of digital currencies reached $2.68 trillion, a decrease of 5.3% compared to the previous period. The trading volume on exchanges increased by 13% to $1.76 trillion. Bitcoin's price fluctuated within the range of $81,200 to $83,200, and overall market sentiment is cautious. The market faces some uncertainty, mainly influenced by Trump's tariff policies.
According to the Gate.io Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is "Fear", with a Fear and Greed Index of 28. Compared to yesterday's "Extreme Fear" sentiment, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but overall it is still in a state of fear.
Crypto & Tradition Overview as of 09am UTC+8, Apr 04
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
According to the latest data, there is still uncertainty in the global economic situation. The preliminary year-on-year CPI for the Eurozone in March is 7.6%, higher than the expected 7.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The final manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in March is 47.3, lower than the expected 47.7, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. The ISM manufacturing PMI for the U.S. in March is 46.3, lower than the expected 47.5, which is the lowest since May 2020. This data suggests that inflationary pressures remain high, but economic activity is slowing down.
The US March CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, both lower than expected. Among them, new car prices fell 0.3% year-on-year, while used car prices rose 0.8% year-on-year. The March PPI rose 2.7% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month. These data indicate that inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, but are still at a relatively high level.
The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes suggest that interest rate hikes will continue, but the pace may slow down. Currently, the market anticipates a 70% probability of a 25 basis point hike in June. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points in May.
Overall, inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, but remain high. Economic activity is slowing down, and the pace of interest rate hikes may also slow. The impact of this macro environment on the cryptocurrency market remains to be seen.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Analysis summary:
The important economic data released this week mainly focuses on inflation, employment, retail sales, and GDP. Among them, the U.S. March non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rate and the U.K. February three-month GDP month-on-month rate are the most noteworthy data.
Regarding inflation data, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-on-year and the U.S. March PPI year-on-year will reveal the latest situation of inflation pressure in the U.S., which will influence the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. China's March CPI year-on-year data will also reflect the domestic inflation level in China.
In terms of employment data, the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for March in the United States will reflect the level of confidence that small businesses have in the economic outlook, indirectly indicating the state of the job market.
In addition, Germany's industrial output and Eurozone retail sales data will reflect the manufacturing and consumer spending situation of the European economy. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision will also affect the country's economic trends.
2. Analysis of Funds and Price Fluctuations
2.1. Price Volatility Analysis
BTC Volatility
Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is approximately 3.21%.
Price Fluctuation Analysis
This week, the price of BTC experienced a decline followed by a rise. Due to the news of President Trump announcing an increase in tariffs, BTC saw a significant drop at the beginning of the week, falling to around $81,600. However, later in the week, as the market reassessed the impact of the tariffs, the price of BTC began to rebound, reaching a high of $88,496 on Friday.
Impact of Trading Volume
From the trading volume data, the trading activity of BTC has significantly increased this week. On days of large price fluctuations, the daily trading volume generally exceeds 1 billion USD, far higher than the recent average level. High trading volume often indicates a change in market sentiment, so it is important to closely monitor future market trends.
Market Activity and Price Direction
Although BTC prices experienced significant fluctuations this week, the weekly closing price remains above $85,000, maintaining a mid-term bullish pattern. The increase in trading volume also reflects a rise in market activity. If favorable news emerges subsequently, BTC is expected to continue its upward trend.
2.2. Fundamental Analysis
According to the latest capital flow data, major cryptocurrencies are showing different trends in capital inflows and outflows. Among them, VIRTUAL shows significant net inflows, which may reflect investors' optimistic sentiment towards this currency. At the same time, currencies like BIGTIME are experiencing net outflows, which may indicate that investors are gradually withdrawing their positions.
Overall, the market activity has increased, and trading volume is relatively active. However, there is a divergence in the capital flows of different investor groups, and the operational strategies of retail investors and institutional investors may differ. Investors need to closely monitor the capital movements of different groups and their impact on market prices.
From a funding perspective, the cryptocurrency market may maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Investors need to remain cautious and control their risk exposure. At the same time, attention should be paid to some potential investment opportunities, such as currencies that are experiencing continued inflows.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often indicates the market trend. According to the latest data, the holdings of major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH by large investors have increased, indicating that institutional investors are gradually ramping up their positions.
BTC Whales Movement
The holdings of BTC whales have significantly increased over the past week, especially between April 1 and April 3, during which the net inflow of funds from these large holders reached several billion dollars. This trend suggests a bullish outlook from institutional investors regarding the future of BTC.
ETH Whales Movement
Similar to BTC, the holdings of ETH whales have also been continuously increasing. Data shows that on April 2, net inflows of funds to ETH whales exceeded $500 million, reaching a recent high. This reflects the continued strengthening of institutional confidence in the ETH ecosystem.
Other Currency Trends
In addition to BTC and ETH, some popular tokens such as DOGE and SHIB have also seen net inflows from large holders, although the scale is relatively small. Meanwhile, some emerging tokens are showing a trend of net outflows from large holders.
Overall, the flow of smart money shows that institutional investors prefer mainstream cryptocurrencies. This may provide continued selling pressure support for BTC and ETH, allowing them to maintain a volatile upward trend for some time in the future.
3. Hot Topics
Trump's tariff policy has triggered turmoil in global markets, severely impacting the cryptocurrency market.
Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy ignites global financial markets, with investors' risk aversion rising sharply
On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Trump suddenly announced the implementation of high tariffs on major trading partner countries, triggering a severe shock in global financial markets. The S&P 500 index plummeted 4.60% that day, the Nasdaq index fell 5%, and the U.S. dollar index dropped by 1.60%. Analysts believe that Trump's move not only exacerbated the risk of global economic stagflation but also raised concerns among investors about the outlook for the U.S. economy.
According to the Jin Shi data report, Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" exceed market expectations, combining "carpet" tariffs with a "one country, one tax rate" approach, covering more than 60 major economies. If these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. could significantly rise by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, surpassing the tariff levels after the implementation of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.
The cryptocurrency market has plummeted, with Bitcoin briefly dipping to $81,600
The "black swan" event of Trump's tariff policy also dealt a heavy blow to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin plummeted significantly on that day, falling to around $81,600 at its lowest. Other cryptocurrencies performed even worse, with coins like Pi, Hyperliquid, Pepe, and Fartcoin experiencing steep declines.
Nevertheless, some well-known analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin prices. Ryan Rasmussen from wise maintains his expectation of a $200,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of the year and states that the recent market fluctuations are just temporary corrections. He believes that, "When the market emerges from this chaos of 'liberation day', we will finally see the market start to rise again."
Cryptocurrency may present a "buying opportunity" in early May, popular altcoins are in high demand
Most analysts believe that Bitcoin is likely to present a "buying opportunity" in early May. GMI's Julien tel had predicted that Bitcoin's price would bottom out in the first week of April, citing a surge in global liquidity. He noted that there is a very strong correlation between the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin, lagging by about 12 weeks.
At the same time, experts are optimistic about the performance of some popular altcoins. Fartcoin is considered an excellent "Beta investment" compared to Bitcoin, with its price closely related to Bitcoin. Additionally, the explosive rebounds of low market cap coins such as $ROUTINE, $GHIBLI, and $TITCOIN have also attracted the attention of investors. Among them, the first well-known Solana layer-2 token Solaxy(SOLX) is seen as the next potential 10x cryptocurrency.
Industry expert's "Bottom Theory" sparks market discussion
Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee: Bitcoin is expected to break $150,000 by the end of the year
Famous analyst Tom Lee's prediction for Bitcoin prices has sparked heated discussions in the market. He stated that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by 2025, and a pullback in the $75,000-$80,000 range is an excellent buying opportunity.
Citigroup analyst Kate Moore: Investors should steer clear of risk assets after Trump's tariff policy
In contrast, Citigroup analyst Kate Moore holds the opposite view. She stated that after Trump announced the tariff policy, investors should now stay away from risk assets.
Bitcoin's dominance may rise again
In addition to predicting the price of Bitcoin, experts believe that Bitcoin's dominance will rise again in the coming weeks, possibly reaching levels of 66%-71%. Altcoins that have a strong correlation with Bitcoin are also seen as one of the most worthwhile cryptocurrencies to buy at present.
4. Major Events
Top 15 Major Impact Events Recently
2025-04-03 Trump Administration Tariff Policy
The Trump administration announced a comprehensive tariff imposition, setting a "minimum baseline tariff" of 10%. This policy has put pressure on risk assets, global stock indices may rise but the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma and may raise interest rates. The sentiment in the crypto market is sluggish, with most digital currencies declining and no substantial reversal expected.
2025-04-03 Mantra DAO Token Burn
The Mantra DAO project team has burned 21,229,000 OM tokens, with a total burn value of 132 million USD. Currently, the cumulative amount of burned OM tokens is 84,019,000, with a total burn value of 524 million USD.
2025-04-03 DWF Labs Buyback Plan
DWF Labs provides a buyback funding assistance program for projects facing abnormal sell-offs, allocating $16.5 million for token buybacks and formulating recovery plans for the tokens. Four projects have already contacted them.
2025-04-03 Ethereum Gas Limit Increase
Ethereum validators approved raising the Gas Limit to 36M through on-chain voting. After the adjustment, the Gas usage of MEV-Boost blocks significantly increased, posing challenges for local builders.
2025-04-03 Tag Adjustment
The observation label adds ARDR, BSW, FLM, etc., and removes the seed labels for JUP, STRK, and TON.
2025-04-02 Whale buys at high position with losses
A certain whale bought EIGEN and HYPE tokens at a high in October 2024, with a loss of $22.42 million over 5 months.
2025-04-02 Curve trading volume growth
Curve's trading volume in the first quarter increased by 13% compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to a significant increase in the number of trades.
2025-04-02 Telegram Ecosystem We Application
The Telegram ecosystem trading application Blum announced that it will have its TGE in Q2 and revealed its airdrop minimum standards.
2025-04-02 Cardano Identity Platform
The Cardano Foundation has launched the Veridian open-source digital identity platform, providing identity solutions using KERI, DID, and ACDC technologies.
2025-04-02 Registration Boom
The Kenya Data Protection Office has issued a notice, urging local residents to rush to register and asking the public to remain vigilant.
2025-04-01 Yuki Accelerator Project
Yuki, a Nigerian We fintech company, was included in the Adrenaline accelerator program, a blockchain founder group.
FlutterWave closes Barter on 2025-04-01
African unicorn company FlutterWave has decided to terminate its virtual card service Barter starting March 12, 2024.
2025-03-31 BOTIFY launches MVP
BOTIFY announced that it will release Botify v.0.5 (MVP) on March 31.
2025-03-31 Carbon Browser Token Burn
Carbon Browser will hold a token burning event on March 31.
2025-03-31 Cobak Token Upgrade
Cobak token will release an upgrade for its crypto price service on March 31.
5. Global Policies
Based on news from March 28 to April 4, 2025, here are the new political developments, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as an analysis of the impact on the industry and market:
Tariff Policy of the Trump Administration
Policy Description
On January 20, 2025, Trump signed the first trade policy memorandum, emphasizing the importance of protecting the American economy and national security.
In February, Trump announced comprehensive tariff measures against China, Canada, and Mexico.
On April 3, Trump announced specific reciprocal tariff rates against several countries, including 49% on Cambodia, 46% on Vietnam, 36% on Thailand, and 34% on China. The reciprocal tariffs will take effect on April 9.
Analysis of the impact on the industry and market of ###
In the short term, Trump's tariff policy has had a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market, causing panic in the market and leading to a significant drop in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
In the long term, tariff policies may increase market liquidity, drive capital towards the crypto market, accelerate the trend of de-dollarization, and bring new development opportunities to the crypto market.
Tariff policies will affect the cost for mining machine manufacturers to obtain key components, impacting their profitability and R&D.
Tariffs may lead to global trade tensions, stock market fluctuations, or increased economic uncertainty, resulting in a short-term rise in trading volume and fee income for exchanges.
Enterprises may turn to using stablecoins for cross-border settlements, reducing the impact of trade barriers and increasing the demand for stablecoins.
The handling of the XRP case by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC )
Policy Description
On April 3rd, the SEC held a closed-door meeting, which may vote to lower the appeal on XRP, marking the imminent resolution of the Ripple lawsuit.
The congressional hearing on April 9 may further clarify cryptocurrency regulation after the XRP case is resolved.
Analysis of the impact on the industry and market of ###
The SEC's final decision on XRP may affect how authorities classify other digital assets, having a profound impact on the entire crypto industry.
If the SEC lowers its appeal against XRP, it will effectively end this ongoing legal battle and bring clarity to cryptocurrency regulation.
Investors and developers are closely watching the latest developments, as the outcome of the case will affect their confidence in and investment decisions regarding cryptocurrencies.
Summary
The tariff policy of the Trump administration and the SEC's handling of the XRP case are the most significant political dynamics and regulatory trends impacting the cryptocurrency industry during this reporting period. These policies and regulations will not only affect cryptocurrency prices and market sentiment in the short term but will also fundamentally influence the long-term development prospects and regulatory landscape of the cryptocurrency industry. Both corporate and individual investors need to closely monitor these dynamics and adopt corresponding response strategies.
6.1. Investment Recommendations
Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks, and decisions should be made with caution.
6.2 Investment Strategy
This Week's Popular Token Analysis
This week, the cryptocurrency market has shown a positive upward trend. Among them, the CIRCLE token has performed remarkably since its launch, with its price skyrocketing by 300% in just one month and daily trading volume once exceeding 50 million USD. This explosive growth has attracted widespread attention from the market. However, at the same time, the price of the CIRCLE token has also undergone several significant fluctuations, reminding investors to approach such high-risk, high-reward investment options with caution.
Quantitative Trading Robot Strategy Analysis
According to data from Gate exchange, various quantitative trading robot strategies performed well this week. The contract grid strategy achieved the highest returns in the markets of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC and DOGE, reaching 2522.02% and 1579.72% respectively. The infinite grid strategy also showed good returns in markets like GT. Additionally, the spot Martingale strategy reached returns of over 200% in markets such as SUI and CSPR.
Overall, the performance of quantitative strategies this week has been noteworthy. Among them, the contract grid strategy and the infinite grid strategy have dominated, while the spot Martingale strategy has also shown impressive returns.
Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market is doing well, and the quantitative trading bot strategy has performed well overall. Investors can choose appropriate quantitative strategy products for investment operations according to their own risk appetite.
6.3. Financial Management Products
Yubi Treasure
Yubi Bao helps match users with idle assets and those in need of loans. After users subscribe to Yubi Bao, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate for that hour based on the user-set lending rate and actual loan demand at every hour. If the loan is successful, users can earn interest for that hour. Yubi Bao supports users in customizing the interest rate; users can set a minimum lending rate when subscribing, and after a successful loan determination at the hour, earnings will be calculated based on the determined interest rate. Yubi Bao supports deposits and withdrawals at any time, allowing subscriptions and redemptions 24 hours a day.
The total amount of USDT in Yubi Treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized return rate of 16.65% + 8.87%.
Wealth Management Treasure
The Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate.io, which includes current, fixed, and other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of digital currency financial products of various types. The products in the Wealth Management Treasure are divided into two types: locked and non-locked. Locked wealth management requires locking for a period of time, while non-locked wealth management allows for flexible participation and supports withdrawals at any time. The returns will be calculated according to the specified annualized interest rate, and the distribution time varies depending on the product.
Structured Financial Products
Gate.io structured finance is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. The settlement yield level is generally determined by comparing the price performance of the underlying asset within the investment period with the specified linked price, and it can be divided into capital-protected and aggressive types. Users can choose to purchase products with a specified investment period based on their required yield rate and base currency. In general, the principal and interest are settled and redeemed at maturity, and early redemption is not allowed.
4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
TradFi is the financing interest rate of traditional finance.
CeFi is the range of cryptocurrency financing rates in centralized finance.
DeFi is the range of cryptocurrency financing interest rates for decentralized finance.
Disclaimer: The above data comes from public market information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, and one should be cautious when entering the market.
6.4. Technical Analysis: ETH Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy Backtesting
Trading Strategy
When the ETH price approaches or breaks through the upper Bollinger Band, take a selling action, with a position of 20%.
When the ETH price approaches or breaks through the lower Bollinger Band, make a buying action with a position of 20%.
The initial principal is 100,000.00 USDT
Backtest Results
Backtesting time range: January 1, 2023 to March 31, 2025
Final Yield: +36.72%
Maximum drawdown: -18.35%
Annualized Volatility: 52.16%
Total number of trades: 68 times (34 buys, 34 sells)
Final Net Value: 136,720.00 USDT
Data Analysis
According to the backtesting results, the Bollinger Band trading strategy achieved a total return of 36.72% during the backtesting period. Although there is a certain level of drawdown risk (maximum drawdown rate of -18.35%), the annualized volatility is within an acceptable range (52.16%). The advantages of this strategy are its simplicity of operation and controllable risk, making it suitable for medium to long-term investors.
However, this strategy also has some drawbacks:
Relying solely on the Bollinger Bands single indicator signal may produce a lot of false signals, leading to overtrading.
This strategy cannot fully capture trend movements and may perform poorly in highly volatile markets.
A fixed 20% position allocation may not maximize profits.
Therefore, in order to further optimize the performance of this strategy, it may be considered to combine it with other technical indicators to build a composite signal system, or to introduce appropriate stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms, and dynamically adjust the position size according to market volatility. Overall, this strategy can serve as an entry-level strategy for beginners, but it still needs to be optimized and improved based on specific market conditions in practical applications.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
AI Weekly Hotspot Report (03.28 - 04.04)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trend Analysis
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market capitalization of digital currencies reached $2.68 trillion, a decrease of 5.3% compared to the previous period. The trading volume on exchanges increased by 13% to $1.76 trillion. Bitcoin's price fluctuated within the range of $81,200 to $83,200, and overall market sentiment is cautious. The market faces some uncertainty, mainly influenced by Trump's tariff policies.
According to the Gate.io Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is "Fear", with a Fear and Greed Index of 28. Compared to yesterday's "Extreme Fear" sentiment, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but overall it is still in a state of fear.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
According to the latest data, there is still uncertainty in the global economic situation. The preliminary year-on-year CPI for the Eurozone in March is 7.6%, higher than the expected 7.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The final manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in March is 47.3, lower than the expected 47.7, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. The ISM manufacturing PMI for the U.S. in March is 46.3, lower than the expected 47.5, which is the lowest since May 2020. This data suggests that inflationary pressures remain high, but economic activity is slowing down.
The US March CPI rose 5.0% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, both lower than expected. Among them, new car prices fell 0.3% year-on-year, while used car prices rose 0.8% year-on-year. The March PPI rose 2.7% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month. These data indicate that inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, but are still at a relatively high level.
The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes suggest that interest rate hikes will continue, but the pace may slow down. Currently, the market anticipates a 70% probability of a 25 basis point hike in June. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points in May.
Overall, inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, but remain high. Economic activity is slowing down, and the pace of interest rate hikes may also slow. The impact of this macro environment on the cryptocurrency market remains to be seen.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Analysis summary:
The important economic data released this week mainly focuses on inflation, employment, retail sales, and GDP. Among them, the U.S. March non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rate and the U.K. February three-month GDP month-on-month rate are the most noteworthy data.
Regarding inflation data, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-on-year and the U.S. March PPI year-on-year will reveal the latest situation of inflation pressure in the U.S., which will influence the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. China's March CPI year-on-year data will also reflect the domestic inflation level in China.
In terms of employment data, the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for March in the United States will reflect the level of confidence that small businesses have in the economic outlook, indirectly indicating the state of the job market.
In addition, Germany's industrial output and Eurozone retail sales data will reflect the manufacturing and consumer spending situation of the European economy. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision will also affect the country's economic trends.
2. Analysis of Funds and Price Fluctuations
2.1. Price Volatility Analysis
BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is approximately 3.21%.
Price Fluctuation Analysis This week, the price of BTC experienced a decline followed by a rise. Due to the news of President Trump announcing an increase in tariffs, BTC saw a significant drop at the beginning of the week, falling to around $81,600. However, later in the week, as the market reassessed the impact of the tariffs, the price of BTC began to rebound, reaching a high of $88,496 on Friday.
Impact of Trading Volume From the trading volume data, the trading activity of BTC has significantly increased this week. On days of large price fluctuations, the daily trading volume generally exceeds 1 billion USD, far higher than the recent average level. High trading volume often indicates a change in market sentiment, so it is important to closely monitor future market trends.
Market Activity and Price Direction Although BTC prices experienced significant fluctuations this week, the weekly closing price remains above $85,000, maintaining a mid-term bullish pattern. The increase in trading volume also reflects a rise in market activity. If favorable news emerges subsequently, BTC is expected to continue its upward trend.
2.2. Fundamental Analysis
According to the latest capital flow data, major cryptocurrencies are showing different trends in capital inflows and outflows. Among them, VIRTUAL shows significant net inflows, which may reflect investors' optimistic sentiment towards this currency. At the same time, currencies like BIGTIME are experiencing net outflows, which may indicate that investors are gradually withdrawing their positions.
Overall, the market activity has increased, and trading volume is relatively active. However, there is a divergence in the capital flows of different investor groups, and the operational strategies of retail investors and institutional investors may differ. Investors need to closely monitor the capital movements of different groups and their impact on market prices.
From a funding perspective, the cryptocurrency market may maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Investors need to remain cautious and control their risk exposure. At the same time, attention should be paid to some potential investment opportunities, such as currencies that are experiencing continued inflows.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often indicates the market trend. According to the latest data, the holdings of major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH by large investors have increased, indicating that institutional investors are gradually ramping up their positions.
BTC Whales Movement The holdings of BTC whales have significantly increased over the past week, especially between April 1 and April 3, during which the net inflow of funds from these large holders reached several billion dollars. This trend suggests a bullish outlook from institutional investors regarding the future of BTC.
ETH Whales Movement Similar to BTC, the holdings of ETH whales have also been continuously increasing. Data shows that on April 2, net inflows of funds to ETH whales exceeded $500 million, reaching a recent high. This reflects the continued strengthening of institutional confidence in the ETH ecosystem.
Other Currency Trends
In addition to BTC and ETH, some popular tokens such as DOGE and SHIB have also seen net inflows from large holders, although the scale is relatively small. Meanwhile, some emerging tokens are showing a trend of net outflows from large holders.
Overall, the flow of smart money shows that institutional investors prefer mainstream cryptocurrencies. This may provide continued selling pressure support for BTC and ETH, allowing them to maintain a volatile upward trend for some time in the future.
3. Hot Topics
Trump's tariff policy has triggered turmoil in global markets, severely impacting the cryptocurrency market.
Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy ignites global financial markets, with investors' risk aversion rising sharply
On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Trump suddenly announced the implementation of high tariffs on major trading partner countries, triggering a severe shock in global financial markets. The S&P 500 index plummeted 4.60% that day, the Nasdaq index fell 5%, and the U.S. dollar index dropped by 1.60%. Analysts believe that Trump's move not only exacerbated the risk of global economic stagflation but also raised concerns among investors about the outlook for the U.S. economy.
According to the Jin Shi data report, Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" exceed market expectations, combining "carpet" tariffs with a "one country, one tax rate" approach, covering more than 60 major economies. If these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. could significantly rise by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, surpassing the tariff levels after the implementation of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.
The cryptocurrency market has plummeted, with Bitcoin briefly dipping to $81,600
The "black swan" event of Trump's tariff policy also dealt a heavy blow to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin plummeted significantly on that day, falling to around $81,600 at its lowest. Other cryptocurrencies performed even worse, with coins like Pi, Hyperliquid, Pepe, and Fartcoin experiencing steep declines.
Nevertheless, some well-known analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin prices. Ryan Rasmussen from wise maintains his expectation of a $200,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of the year and states that the recent market fluctuations are just temporary corrections. He believes that, "When the market emerges from this chaos of 'liberation day', we will finally see the market start to rise again."
Cryptocurrency may present a "buying opportunity" in early May, popular altcoins are in high demand
Most analysts believe that Bitcoin is likely to present a "buying opportunity" in early May. GMI's Julien tel had predicted that Bitcoin's price would bottom out in the first week of April, citing a surge in global liquidity. He noted that there is a very strong correlation between the global M2 money supply and Bitcoin, lagging by about 12 weeks.
At the same time, experts are optimistic about the performance of some popular altcoins. Fartcoin is considered an excellent "Beta investment" compared to Bitcoin, with its price closely related to Bitcoin. Additionally, the explosive rebounds of low market cap coins such as $ROUTINE, $GHIBLI, and $TITCOIN have also attracted the attention of investors. Among them, the first well-known Solana layer-2 token Solaxy(SOLX) is seen as the next potential 10x cryptocurrency.
Industry expert's "Bottom Theory" sparks market discussion
Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee: Bitcoin is expected to break $150,000 by the end of the year
Famous analyst Tom Lee's prediction for Bitcoin prices has sparked heated discussions in the market. He stated that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by 2025, and a pullback in the $75,000-$80,000 range is an excellent buying opportunity.
Citigroup analyst Kate Moore: Investors should steer clear of risk assets after Trump's tariff policy
In contrast, Citigroup analyst Kate Moore holds the opposite view. She stated that after Trump announced the tariff policy, investors should now stay away from risk assets.
Bitcoin's dominance may rise again
In addition to predicting the price of Bitcoin, experts believe that Bitcoin's dominance will rise again in the coming weeks, possibly reaching levels of 66%-71%. Altcoins that have a strong correlation with Bitcoin are also seen as one of the most worthwhile cryptocurrencies to buy at present.
4. Major Events
Top 15 Major Impact Events Recently
2025-04-03 Trump Administration Tariff Policy The Trump administration announced a comprehensive tariff imposition, setting a "minimum baseline tariff" of 10%. This policy has put pressure on risk assets, global stock indices may rise but the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma and may raise interest rates. The sentiment in the crypto market is sluggish, with most digital currencies declining and no substantial reversal expected.
2025-04-03 Mantra DAO Token Burn The Mantra DAO project team has burned 21,229,000 OM tokens, with a total burn value of 132 million USD. Currently, the cumulative amount of burned OM tokens is 84,019,000, with a total burn value of 524 million USD.
2025-04-03 DWF Labs Buyback Plan DWF Labs provides a buyback funding assistance program for projects facing abnormal sell-offs, allocating $16.5 million for token buybacks and formulating recovery plans for the tokens. Four projects have already contacted them.
2025-04-03 Ethereum Gas Limit Increase Ethereum validators approved raising the Gas Limit to 36M through on-chain voting. After the adjustment, the Gas usage of MEV-Boost blocks significantly increased, posing challenges for local builders.
2025-04-03 Tag Adjustment The observation label adds ARDR, BSW, FLM, etc., and removes the seed labels for JUP, STRK, and TON.
2025-04-02 Whale buys at high position with losses A certain whale bought EIGEN and HYPE tokens at a high in October 2024, with a loss of $22.42 million over 5 months.
2025-04-02 Curve trading volume growth Curve's trading volume in the first quarter increased by 13% compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to a significant increase in the number of trades.
2025-04-02 Telegram Ecosystem We Application The Telegram ecosystem trading application Blum announced that it will have its TGE in Q2 and revealed its airdrop minimum standards.
2025-04-02 Cardano Identity Platform The Cardano Foundation has launched the Veridian open-source digital identity platform, providing identity solutions using KERI, DID, and ACDC technologies.
2025-04-02 Registration Boom The Kenya Data Protection Office has issued a notice, urging local residents to rush to register and asking the public to remain vigilant.
2025-04-01 Yuki Accelerator Project Yuki, a Nigerian We fintech company, was included in the Adrenaline accelerator program, a blockchain founder group.
FlutterWave closes Barter on 2025-04-01 African unicorn company FlutterWave has decided to terminate its virtual card service Barter starting March 12, 2024.
2025-03-31 BOTIFY launches MVP BOTIFY announced that it will release Botify v.0.5 (MVP) on March 31.
2025-03-31 Carbon Browser Token Burn Carbon Browser will hold a token burning event on March 31.
2025-03-31 Cobak Token Upgrade Cobak token will release an upgrade for its crypto price service on March 31.
5. Global Policies
Based on news from March 28 to April 4, 2025, here are the new political developments, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as an analysis of the impact on the industry and market:
Tariff Policy of the Trump Administration
Policy Description
Analysis of the impact on the industry and market of ###
The handling of the XRP case by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC )
Policy Description
Analysis of the impact on the industry and market of ###
Summary
The tariff policy of the Trump administration and the SEC's handling of the XRP case are the most significant political dynamics and regulatory trends impacting the cryptocurrency industry during this reporting period. These policies and regulations will not only affect cryptocurrency prices and market sentiment in the short term but will also fundamentally influence the long-term development prospects and regulatory landscape of the cryptocurrency industry. Both corporate and individual investors need to closely monitor these dynamics and adopt corresponding response strategies.
6.1. Investment Recommendations
Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks, and decisions should be made with caution.
6.2 Investment Strategy
This Week's Popular Token Analysis
This week, the cryptocurrency market has shown a positive upward trend. Among them, the CIRCLE token has performed remarkably since its launch, with its price skyrocketing by 300% in just one month and daily trading volume once exceeding 50 million USD. This explosive growth has attracted widespread attention from the market. However, at the same time, the price of the CIRCLE token has also undergone several significant fluctuations, reminding investors to approach such high-risk, high-reward investment options with caution.
Quantitative Trading Robot Strategy Analysis
According to data from Gate exchange, various quantitative trading robot strategies performed well this week. The contract grid strategy achieved the highest returns in the markets of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC and DOGE, reaching 2522.02% and 1579.72% respectively. The infinite grid strategy also showed good returns in markets like GT. Additionally, the spot Martingale strategy reached returns of over 200% in markets such as SUI and CSPR.
Overall, the performance of quantitative strategies this week has been noteworthy. Among them, the contract grid strategy and the infinite grid strategy have dominated, while the spot Martingale strategy has also shown impressive returns.
Summary
This week, the cryptocurrency market is doing well, and the quantitative trading bot strategy has performed well overall. Investors can choose appropriate quantitative strategy products for investment operations according to their own risk appetite.
6.3. Financial Management Products
Yubi Treasure
Yubi Bao helps match users with idle assets and those in need of loans. After users subscribe to Yubi Bao, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate for that hour based on the user-set lending rate and actual loan demand at every hour. If the loan is successful, users can earn interest for that hour. Yubi Bao supports users in customizing the interest rate; users can set a minimum lending rate when subscribing, and after a successful loan determination at the hour, earnings will be calculated based on the determined interest rate. Yubi Bao supports deposits and withdrawals at any time, allowing subscriptions and redemptions 24 hours a day.
The total amount of USDT in Yubi Treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized return rate of 16.65% + 8.87%.
Wealth Management Treasure
The Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate.io, which includes current, fixed, and other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of digital currency financial products of various types. The products in the Wealth Management Treasure are divided into two types: locked and non-locked. Locked wealth management requires locking for a period of time, while non-locked wealth management allows for flexible participation and supports withdrawals at any time. The returns will be calculated according to the specified annualized interest rate, and the distribution time varies depending on the product.
Structured Financial Products
Gate.io structured finance is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. The settlement yield level is generally determined by comparing the price performance of the underlying asset within the investment period with the specified linked price, and it can be divided into capital-protected and aggressive types. Users can choose to purchase products with a specified investment period based on their required yield rate and base currency. In general, the principal and interest are settled and redeemed at maturity, and early redemption is not allowed.
4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data comes from public market information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, and one should be cautious when entering the market.
6.4. Technical Analysis: ETH Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy Backtesting
Trading Strategy
Backtest Results
Data Analysis
According to the backtesting results, the Bollinger Band trading strategy achieved a total return of 36.72% during the backtesting period. Although there is a certain level of drawdown risk (maximum drawdown rate of -18.35%), the annualized volatility is within an acceptable range (52.16%). The advantages of this strategy are its simplicity of operation and controllable risk, making it suitable for medium to long-term investors.
However, this strategy also has some drawbacks:
Therefore, in order to further optimize the performance of this strategy, it may be considered to combine it with other technical indicators to build a composite signal system, or to introduce appropriate stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms, and dynamically adjust the position size according to market volatility. Overall, this strategy can serve as an entry-level strategy for beginners, but it still needs to be optimized and improved based on specific market conditions in practical applications.