#美联储降息预期及影响# Despite Trump's attempt to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates through tariff policies to ease national debt pressure, the Fed maintained interest rates at its March meeting and clearly stated that "the impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain." The market expects two possible rate cuts in 2025, but Powell emphasized that "inflation expectations need to be closely monitored." This policy divergence has exacerbated the liquidity crisis in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index falling by 9.08% in a single week, marking the largest drop since March 2020.

Traditional safe-haven asset gold has experienced unusual fluctuations recently: on April 3, the gold price briefly broke through $3167/ounce, but then fell back below $3000 as investors sold gold to cover losses in other markets. This phenomenon reflects the market's concerns about "stagflation," with funds shifting from safe-haven assets to potential bargain-hunting opportunities, setting the stage for a rebound in risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies).
The short-term support level for Bitcoin is at $75,000, and if it falls below this level, it may test the $70,000 mark; the key support level for Ethereum is $1,500. Notably, data from the options market shows a significant increase in demand for put options, with the open interest for put options at a $70,000 strike price for Bitcoin surpassing that of other contracts, highlighting market concerns about short-term downside risks.
Despite the Federal Reserve keeping the Intrerest Rate unchanged, the market has priced in a 150 basis point rate cut this year. If inflation pressures ease, June may become the first rate cut timeframe, injecting liquidity into the cryptocurrency market.
Trump's tariff policy is essentially "promoting peace through war," with the ultimate goal of achieving more favorable trade agreements by pressuring allies. Once the pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds eases, the policy may shift towards easing, which would benefit risk assets.