Original Title: "Trump Delays Tariff Blunder - Bitcoin Long Wick Candle 81,000, US Stocks Ride Roller Coaster, Fed's May Rate Cut Expectations Surge"

Original author: Joe, Dongqu Dongqu BlockTempo

After the "Black Monday" that hit the Asian stock markets and the cryptocurrency market yesterday, foreign media reported last night that the Trump administration might suspend reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, which temporarily stimulated a strong market rebound, and Bitcoin broke through 80,000 dollars.

However, the White House quickly denied this as fake news, causing market confidence to collapse instantly, with the stock market and Bitcoin plummeting. Subsequently, U.S. President Trump issued a tough warning to China again, claiming that if China does not withdraw the retaliatory tariffs (which Beijing announced last night as a 34% retaliatory tariff), the U.S. will raise the current tariff rate to 50% on the 9th, once again triggering a market shock.

The Dow Jones plunged more than 1,700 points intraday, and the S&P 500 also posted its worst three-day performance since the pandemic began in 2020, although losses converged late in the session. At the same time, the EU is holding high the banner of negotiation priority, but it is also prepared to counter tariffs, and the global trade war is clouded.

Bitcoin once broke through $81,000 before dropping back

The cryptocurrency market also experienced fluctuations last night due to false news about Trump suspending tariffs. Bitcoin reached a high of $81,213, but quickly fell back after the White House clarified the situation. As of 9:30 AM Taipei time on April 8, the price of Bitcoin is approximately $79,670, and the price of Ethereum is around $1,574. Whether the rebound can be sustained remains to be seen.

Overall, the current market trend highlights the high uncertainty of the global economic environment, putting significant pressure on risk markets. Investors must be more cautious when assessing risks and opportunities, closely monitoring subsequent policy developments and changes in economic data.

US stocks show mixed performance, Nvidia rebounds

In the US stock market, Apple (AAPL-US) closed at 181.46 USD, plunging 3.67%. The company's stock price has dropped a total of 19% over the past three trading days, with a market value evaporating by nearly 640 billion USD. Market rumors suggest that to replenish inventory before the potential tariffs take effect on the 9th, Apple has initiated an emergency logistics plan, using cargo planes to transport large quantities of iPhones and other products from India and China to the United States.

NVIDIA (NVDA) closed at $97.64, rebounding by 3.53%. Bernstein analysts are optimistic about NVIDIA, reiterating an "outperform" rating with a target price of $185, and expect that its AI server products may be exempt from the latest tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly plummeted 1,703 points during the session, ultimately closing down 349.26 points, a decline of 0.91%, reporting at 37,965.6 points.

The S&P 500 index fell by 11.83 points, or 0.23%, to 5,062.25 points, marking a cumulative decline of more than 10% over the past three days, the worst drop since the market crash triggered by the pandemic in early 2020.

Tech stocks show resilience, with dip buying pouring in, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 15.48 points, or 0.1%, at 15,603.26 points.

Benefiting from a strong rebound in semiconductor stocks, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose sharply by 97.29 points, or 2.70%, closing at 3,694.95 points.

Federal Reserve's Closed-Door Meeting Adds Uncertainty, Rate Cut Expectations Surge

As the market is on edge due to tariff news, the Federal Reserve suddenly held a closed-door board meeting last night that was not announced in advance. Although the specific discussion topics of the meeting have not been disclosed, this rare action at such a sensitive time has heightened market tension and speculation.

According to the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), market traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as May, with the probability rising from 14% a week ago to 30.7%. This reflects strong market expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more dovish stance to support the economy amid concerns over trade war shadows and potential economic slowdown.

The EU adopts a "negotiating while fighting" strategy, proposing zero tariffs.

In the face of US tariff pressures, the EU reached a consensus at the 27-nation trade ministerial meeting held in Luxembourg, prioritizing negotiations to resolve trade disputes. EU Commissioner for Trade Maros Sefcovic stated that a proposal for "zero-for-zero" tariffs on industrial products has been made to the US side, which means that both parties would fully exempt each other from tariffs on industrial goods.

However, the EU has also made it clear that it will not wait indefinitely. Šefčovič outlined the EU's three main positions:

1. Acknowledge the importance of cooperation with the United States in strategic areas (such as addressing capacity overcapacity from non-market economies, semiconductor competition, supply of critical raw materials, etc.)

2. Admitting that negotiations with the U.S. will be protracted, currently only in the preliminary stage, as the U.S. views tariffs as a "corrective measure" rather than a bargaining chip.

3. In seeking open negotiations, the "three-track approach" will be adopted: defending interests through countermeasures, diversifying markets through new trade agreements, and preventing harmful trade diversion effects.

In terms of specific actions, in response to the previously imposed tariffs by the United States on steel and aluminum products, the European Union is expected to implement the first wave of retaliatory tariffs on April 15, with the relevant list submitted to member states for a vote on the 9th. The second wave of counter-tariffs is expected to be introduced on May 15.

Currently, the EU strategy is clearly "negotiation first, fight while talking," and it actively seeks to diversify its trade partners. Šefčovič specifically named India, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Gulf countries, and called for accelerating negotiations on existing free trade agreements. The President of the European Commission vividly stated that the EU will "focus like a laser beam on 83% of global trade excluding the United States."

At the same time, the European Union is highly vigilant about the risks of trade diversion, especially the potential influx of products from China into the EU market due to U.S. tariffs. Sefcovic's recent visit to China had one of its focuses on addressing issues such as trade imbalances with China, overcapacity, market access, and investment from Chinese capital in Europe.

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