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🔥Bitcoin has been in a sideways trend for 6 days, revealing important signals, so stay alert! + Chapter 16 of the Chán theory diagram explanation 👇
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News
1. The myth of Bitcoin as a safe haven has hit a wall in reality.
JPMorgan's latest report points out that when global markets are severely volatile due to the trade war initiated by Trump, investors' choice is clear: they prefer to invest their money in gold rather than Bitcoin. This week, gold prices surged to a historic high of $3,660 per ounce, while Bitcoin has dropped over 20% since hitting a record high of $109,000 on January 20, and is currently hovering around $83,000 to $86,000. =======================
The report analysis states that Bitcoin has failed to become the darling of safe-haven funds like gold. Gold ETFs and futures are attracting significant capital inflows, while speculators are cashing out from new cryptocurrency ETFs in the U.S. Behind this are geopolitical uncertainties, Trump's aggressive tariff policies, and the looming shadow of economic recession, all of which are driving investors toward the ultimate safe-haven asset—gold. =======================
The safe-haven status of gold has once again been validated by the market, while the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" seems pale amidst this turmoil. Perhaps the true value of Bitcoin still needs time to be redefined. But I remain optimistic about it; let us wait for time to prove.
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🔥Technical Analysis
1, Bitcoin:
Since the top divergence of Bitcoin appeared the day before yesterday, Bitcoin has seen a pullback, finding support at 83000. This allowed Bitcoin to form a converging triangle pattern yesterday, and fortunately, it broke through 84500 last night, moving out of the middle track of the range, allowing us to continue to see around 86000.
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Resistance level: resistance near 86000, previous high sell point at 88000, and the remaining target position we are looking at for this rebound is 91500;
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Support Level: 84500 short-term support, looking down at 83000 box bottom, this bottom has a particularly long lower shadow on the 4-hour chart, there is still a lot of buying liquidity, and the further drop is still at 81000, 79000.
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2, Ether:
Ethereum is still moving in a sideways range, and we should first look at the 1615 level if it strengthens; otherwise, Ethereum will continue to hover around the lower bound. It may take until next Monday to break out of this range, as the U.S. stock market will have a three-day break. Fortunately, the support we provided at 1560 yesterday was spot on.
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Resistance Level: 1615 (midpoint of the range); 1660, looking up to 1750. How to determine if there is a real breakout here? Currently, the short term can rely on the closing prices of two consecutive 4-hour candlesticks;
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Support level: 1560; looking down at 1480, still pay attention to the recent large liquidity in Ethereum's on-chain wallets!
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🔥Let's talk about how we should operate. In the short term, the market looks dead and is unlikely to get better anytime soon. Stocks, coins, and bonds are all hard to manage, and risk assets are being suppressed. Brothers looking to buy the dip should definitely stay calm and not invest everything at once; keep some cash for safety, so you can withstand extreme situations. Those with a bit of spare cash can try their luck in the primary market.
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Looking at the long term, cryptocurrency regulation is slowly taking shape, and it might bring a wave of new opportunities to the crypto space. Right now, Powell is like playing cards; he holds the cards but still has to see how Trump plays his hand. We need to closely watch the tariff policy in April and the GDP data to be announced at the end of the month, paying more attention to inflation and economic conditions. The market feels like a roller coaster, and one careless move could throw you off. Remember, in this market, survival comes first; making money can be put on the backburner!
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🔥Finally, let's talk about the core logical chain behind: The expectation of a shift in Federal Reserve policy → Institutions accelerate allocation of crypto assets → BTC solidifies its foundation → ETH completes chip turnover → Altcoin season officially begins.
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We are currently in a critical stage of "bear-bull transition"; panic selling often corresponds to a buying point for gold. Maintaining strategic composure is essential to capture the full benefits of a bull market.
#trump# #voxel# #pi# #eth# #btc#