Ark Invest has raised its 2030 Bitcoin price prediction to $2.4 million based on a "radical" model.

Source: The Block

Ark Invest uses a new experimental approach, expecting that by 2030, the price of Bitcoin will reach 2.4 million dollars in a bull market.

Price Prediction

Ark Invest has raised its bullish price prediction for Bitcoin to $2.4 million, up from the previous forecast of $1.5 million, based on a new specialized methodology.

Price Scenario:

Bull Market: 2.4 million USD

Benchmark: 1.2 million USD

Bear Market: 500,000 USD

Analyst David Puell pointed out in a report on Thursday that the initial bull market price target for 2030 is approximately $1.5 million. However, using the latest experimental model, Ark has now predicted a price of $2.4 million in a bull market scenario by eliminating lost or long-held Bitcoins.

Growth rate and market model

The report indicates that the bull market price forecast is based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 72% from the end of 2024 to the end of 2030. These price estimates are also modeled based on the expected total addressable market and market penetration rate.

In the new experimental method, Puell describes it as more "aggressive" than the official Ark model, with the report anticipating a price of 1.2 million dollars in the baseline scenario (calculated at a 53% CAGR), while the price in a bear market scenario is expected to be 500,000 dollars (calculated at a 32% CAGR).

Influencing factors

Puell also pointed out that the use of Bitcoin as digital gold contributes the most to the bearish report and baseline scenario, while "institutional investment contributes the most to our bullish scenario."

He mentioned that the use of Bitcoin is another key factor in emerging markets. He stated: "The low entry barrier of Bitcoin provides individuals with internet access in emerging markets with an alternative investment option that could bring capital appreciation over time, rather than a defensive allocation like the US dollar to maintain purchasing power and avoid devaluation of the local currency."

Puell also added, "We believe that this more experimental research highlights the scarcity of Bitcoin and the lost supply, which is not reflected in most valuation models today."