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Deeply integrated public chain on Telegram—Analysis of the TOP Gainers: TON
To talk about the most popular public chain project recently, I believe it’s none other than Ton. Today’s DOGS is its on-chain project. The unique aspect of TON is that it’s not just a blockchain but an ecosystem deeply linked with the world’s largest communication platform, Telegram. Let’s take a look at it today.
1. Basic Fundamentals
TON (The Open Network) is a next-generation blockchain platform focusing on speed, security, and scalability. Its core design philosophy is to handle millions of transactions per second when necessary, while maintaining user and service provider friendliness.
TON’s history dates back to 2018, when Telegram founder Pavel Durov launched the TON project and raised $1.7 billion, but it was later halted due to legal proceedings by the U.S. SEC. In 2020, community developers took over and continued development, transforming TON from “Telegram’s blockchain” to “Telegram ecosystem’s blockchain.” In May 2026, a fundamental shift occurred—Durov officially announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the main driving force and largest validator of TON, which is step 2 in the MTONGA roadmap’s 7 steps.
TON’s technical architecture adopts an “infinite sharding” design, achieving horizontal scalability through dynamic sharding mechanisms, theoretically increasing throughput infinitely as demand grows.
Core application scenarios in the TON ecosystem include: Mini App ecosystem within Telegram, TON Space wallet, on-chain payments (USDT issuance on TON has exceeded 1 billion), DeFi protocols (staking, lending, DEX), and recently launched AI agent functions (TON Tech launched on April 28th, capable of autonomously executing on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi, and staking operations via AI agents).
2. Current Market Overview
TON’s current price is $1.8151 USDT, with a 24-hour surge of 30.36%, and intraday volatility between 1.3635 and 1.8742. 7-day increase is 37.35%, 30-day increase is 46.85%, 90-day increase is 44.06%, showing a very strong short-term upward trend. Market cap is approximately $4.85B, ranked 27th, making it a mid-cap token.
24-hour trading volume is about 15.6 million USDT, with 9.03 million TON traded. Contract holdings increased by 22.36% in 24 hours (from 189.5 million to 231.9 million tokens), with extremely intense leverage trading. The Fear & Greed index has risen to 50, indicating market sentiment has shifted from fear to neutral leaning greed.
Social sentiment is extremely optimistic: 85% positive, 15% negative, with a sentiment score of 70%, dominated by bullish sentiment. Discussion activity has surged—posts in the last 3 days increased by 75% compared to the previous 4–6 days (89 vs. 51).
3. Recent Major Events and Catalysts
Event 1: Telegram officially takes over TON (most core catalyst)
On May 4–5, Durov announced that Telegram will replace the TON Foundation as the main driver and largest validator of TON. This means TON shifts from a “community-driven blockchain” back to an “officially supported Telegram blockchain,” backed by the global communication giant with 900 million monthly active users. Technical upgrades will be rolled out within 2–3 weeks. This is the most direct catalyst for the recent surge—Telegram’s official endorsement provides unprecedented credibility and user reach for TON.
Event 2: Transaction fees reduced by 6 times to near zero
After validator voting, TON network transaction fees were reduced by about 6 times. Sending TON now costs approximately $0.00052, and USDT transfer costs about $0.00142. Near-zero fees significantly lower the user entry barrier, laying infrastructure groundwork for explosive growth in micro-payments, on-chain DeFi, and Mini App ecosystems.
Event 3: TON Tech launches AI agents
On April 28, TON Tech launched AI agents capable of autonomously executing on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi, and staking operations without user private key interaction. The AI + blockchain narrative is one of the hottest tracks in 2026, and TON’s deployment in this area adds extra narrative premium.
Event 4: Mainnet validator rules update
On May 2, TON officially released an update to mainnet validator rules, raising the minimum staking threshold from 824k to 1 million tokens, and the maximum to 3 million tokens. Increasing the staking threshold means validators need to hold more TON to participate in network maintenance, which boosts staking demand and reduces circulating supply, providing structural support for the token price.
4. Technical Analysis
Trend signals
Trend is extremely strong. The 4-hour ADX is 49.73 (PDI=53.53 far exceeds MDI=1.68), and the daily ADX is similarly high, indicating a strong upward trend among all analyzed tokens. From 15-minute to daily charts, all moving averages are aligned bullishly—MA7 > MA30 > MA120 across all timeframes, confirming a consistent upward trend.
The 4-hour PDI (53.53) versus MDI (1.68) shows a huge gap (~32 times), indicating momentum in the upward direction overwhelmingly dominates the downward, with bulls in absolute control. Such extreme PDI/MDI ratios rarely appear in normal markets and are often associated with major bullish catalysts leading to rapid surges.
Bollinger Bands are opening upward, with price far above the upper band—current price at 1.7928 is about 10.5% above the upper Bollinger band at 1.6220, with a bandwidth of 0.4883 far exceeding the 20-day average bandwidth of 0.2828. The price breaking above the upper band suggests strong momentum is still being released.
24-hour volume surge—trading volume is about 37 times the 7-day average (1.54 million vs. 415k USDT), indicating significantly increased capital participation. Unlike DOGS, where the price rise was accompanied by shrinking volume, TON’s surge is supported by ample funds, making the rally more credible.
Comparison with DOGS overbought condition
Both TON and DOGS are in extreme overbought states, but their overbought natures differ:
TON has volume support—trading volume is 37 times the 7-day average, driven by real funds; DOGS’s price rise is accompanied by shrinking volume, only 1/650 of the 7-day average, lacking fund support.
TON has fundamental catalysts—Telegram takeover + fee reduction + AI agents + staking threshold increase, multiple substantial positive factors stacking; DOGS’s catalysts mainly come from Revolut listing and ecosystem spillover effects.
TON’s market cap is larger—$15.42M (rank 27) vs. DOGS’s $37.39 million (rank 576), with more liquidity and relatively controlled volatility.
This means that although TON is severely overbought, it has higher “value”—supported by funds and fundamentals, so the correction might be milder; whereas the overbought state lacking support could see sharper declines.
5. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Short-term (1–3 days)
TON is in a state of “extremely strong trend + severe overbought + volume surge + major catalysts.” Unlike DOGS’s false overbought, TON’s surge is backed by real funds and fundamentals, making its overbought condition more “valuable.”
However, extreme overbought almost always signals a technical correction. Currently, it’s not suitable to chase the high. If you already hold TON, consider partial profit-taking—at the 4-hour RSI=91, a correction could happen at any time. Protect your realized gains rather than chasing more unrealized profits.
If you want to buy TON, wait for a pullback to the 4-hour support levels—around MA7 at 1.61 and MA30 at 1.40—these could be support levels during a correction. Once the overbought indicators are digested, the risk-reward ratio of entry improves.
Negative funding rate (-0.000076) favors long positions—holders can earn funding fees during the holding period, an additional advantage for long positions on TON.
Mid-to-long-term (1–3 months)
TON’s medium to long-term outlook improves significantly with Telegram’s takeover catalyst. Reach of 900 million users + near-zero fees + staking threshold increase + AI narrative form a strong bullish case. The subsequent steps in the MTONGA roadmap will be key variables for the medium-long-term trend.
However, the current surge is mainly driven by news catalysts rather than actual ecosystem usage growth. It takes time for catalysts to translate into real adoption, and there may be expectations gaps and corrections along the way. Investors with a medium-long-term view should focus on actual ecosystem data rather than just narratives.