Musk develops a humanoid AI, Transformers will come true?

The technology is in place, but the cost has to be cut.

Written by: Kyle

When 5 humanoid robots walk up to you, you subconsciously expect what capabilities they have. Tesla's recently released video gives the answer. Its self-developed robot "Optimus" can explore the environment, replicate human actions, and manipulate objects autonomously.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is full of expectations for these robots with the same name as the leader of the Autobots in "Transformers", predicting that there will be more market demand than electric vehicles, and everyone will have one in the future.

At present, "robot arms" in factories have become commonplace. There are food delivery robots running in the aisles of restaurants and hotels, and a sweeping robot can be installed at home. The sensor is equipped with arms and legs, and the "head" of the display is really not "human".

What Tesla wants to build is a multifunctional humanoid robot that can act autonomously. Although Boston Dynamics, a legendary company in this field, has developed a biped robot with strong athletic capabilities, it has two fatal flaws: low IQ and high cost.

ChatGPTs that can understand natural language and interact with humans make up for the IQ deficiency of robots to a certain extent. What Musk wants to start to solve is the cost problem.

Tesla releases 5 Optimus Primes

"Madman" Elon Musk can always come up with all kinds of incredible plans, and step by step make his dreams come true. Recently, Musk dropped another blockbuster. He wants to create a humanoid robot that "everyone must be equipped" in the future.

At Tesla's 2023 shareholder meeting on May 16, Musk announced the latest developments in the company's humanoid robots. In the public video, five humanoid robots walk upright in Tesla's factory. They can detect the surrounding environment, reproduce real-time movements through sensors, and perform tasks such as sorting items.

These robots have a domineering code name - "Optimus" (Optimus). Fans who are familiar with "Transformers" must be impressed with it. Optimus Prime is the leader of the Autobots and leads the Justice Legion to maintain peace.

The name "Optimus Prime" fits well with the attributes of Tesla's car manufacturing company, and the way they build robots is similar to that of making cars. According to official data, the torso of Optimus Prime is equipped with a 2.3kWh, 52V battery pack, which is highly integrated with charging management, sensors and cooling systems. "From sensing to fusion to charging management are all brought together in this system, which draws on our experience in car design." Tesla engineer said.

This means that when Tesla's electric vehicles become more and more intelligent, Optimus Prime will also evolve. Musk also said that Tesla has tried to connect the driving assistance software (FSD) system of electric vehicles and the underlying modules of humanoid robots to form a combination of "autobots".

Regarding the creation of highly intelligent robots, Musk proudly stated that a large number of Tesla electric vehicles have been able to observe and understand the world around them, and can make decisions based on the collected information. Using Tesla's technological advancements in computer vision, humanoid robots will also be able to be further deployed in the future. In other words, Optimus Prime's "eyes" also have a spectrum.

Optimus Prime is not a recent project. As early as 2021, Musk announced the general robot plan on the "Tesla AI Day". At that time, he gave a concept map showing the basic shape of the robot. Interestingly speaking, the robot had not yet been developed at that time, but Musk arranged for the staff to wear special costumes and dance as a robot.

Tesla’s robot concept map released in 2021

I have to say that Musk's execution is amazing. A year later, the first generation of "Optimus Prime" was unveiled. It slowly walked out of the stage and waved to the audience.

Don’t underestimate this simple action. A robot research and development engineer explained that when developing a humanoid robot with excellent performance, a big difficulty is walking upright with two feet. When humans walk, in order to maintain balance, they need to use multiple organs such as vision, inner ear, and cerebellum to perceive and adjust. It is a big project for robots to simulate this process through technology.

Judging from the latest video released by Tesla, even now, the Optimus Primes are still walking slowly. A high praise comment under the video said, "The way they walk is similar to when I try to keep my pants down."

One per person? Musk needs to get the price down

Although "Optimus Prime" still looks clumsy at present, Musk has great expectations for it. He said that in the future, the market demand for humanoid robots will reach 10 billion units, and everyone will have one, which is more marketable than cars. He also half-jokingly declared that "most of the long-term value" of Tesla will eventually come from Optimus Prime.

Regardless of whether Musk's prediction can be realized, it is certain that humans' pursuit of robots has run through almost the entire history of civilization. In the era of ancient Greek mythology, there were many stories about artificial humans. For example, Hephaestus, the god of craftsmen, once created a golden girl as a maid in the palace; A blueprint of a humanoid robot.

In the age of science and technology, human beings have been exploring the research and development of robots, hoping to have a loyal servant to reduce the workload. In recent years, a variety of industrial robots have actually been used, but there are basically no humanoid ones. Most of them are presented in the appearance of intelligent robotic arms, and they perform repetitive single actions in factories, logistics and other fields. In restaurants and hotels, there are also some food delivery robots, but they are more like sliding dinner plates. They do not have the ability to serve and serve dishes autonomously, and can only move in a specific environment.

Haidilao’s food delivery robot

Compared with the rapid development of generative AI, humans have been making slow progress in creating humanoid robots that combine software and hardware and have autonomous capabilities. At present, there is still no robot that has the ability to complete multiple tasks such as cleaning, washing and cooking like humans.

At present, robots can perceive the environment under the action of sensors. In the AI era, what Tesla wants to achieve is that humanoid robots can understand humans and act autonomously, including accurately grasping objects. Once the IQ is online, the ability of the robot will be greatly improved, and large models such as GPT are likely to become the main solution to improve the robot's IQ.

In the field of humanoid robots, Tesla is actually a latecomer. The legend of this track was established in 1992 by Boston Dynamics.

Initially, Boston Dynamics served the U.S. military and produced a quadruped robot "big dog" that can walk on mud and water with loads to transport ammunition, food and other supplies in environments with complex terrain. Later, the company developed a bipedal robot, whose function was to experiment with protective clothing for the U.S. military.

After decades of research and development accumulation, Boston Dynamics finally brought its pinnacle work in 2017. The video of its humanoid robot Atlas jumping and rotating between boxes of different heights, and completing standard backflips went viral on the Internet. pass. It is this video that allows people to see the dawn of the robot dream.

Recently, an engineer combined ChatGPT with Boston Dynamics' robot dog Spot, enabling Spot to communicate with humans and respond to questions by nodding and shaking their heads.

At this point, the software, hardware and IQ of humanoid robots are almost complete for the first time in history. But to achieve what Musk calls "one per person," the bigger challenge is price.

As strong as Boston Dynamics, it cannot lower the cost of robots.

The company's four-legged robot Spot Mini is priced at about 520,000 yuan, and only about 400 units have been sold six months after its launch. Atlas, a humanoid robot, has not been put on the shelves, but the industry estimates that its price is as high as 2 million US dollars. Due to continuous research and development investment but little cash return, Boston Dynamics has a long-term fate. After being acquired by Google in 2013, it was sold to Softbank in 2017. Only 3 years later, Boston Dynamics once again changed hands to Hyundai Motor, and its robots became the "wage earners" of Hyundai Motor's factory.

The high cost is in front of us. If Musk wants to realize his rhetoric, he must significantly reduce the cost. He has publicly stated that the price of "Optimus Prime" should be less than 20,000 US dollars, and use cheaper technical solutions to realize the standardization, low cost and mass production of humanoid robot products.

Musk has optimistically predicted that "Optimus Prime" will be mass-produced and launched in 3 to 5 years, but judging from its current slow pace and movements, these robots can only handle simple tasks inefficiently.

However, once the core technology is broken by Tesla, it is only a matter of time before it goes public. You know, Tesla’s first-generation sports car Roadster was launched in only 5 years; it took only 1 year for Model 3 to be delivered from the public. "Madman" Musk never disappoints.