EMC Labs BTC Weekly Observation (02.10~02.16): "Russia-Ukraine peace talks" have made progress, and BTC will choose the direction of low fluctuation

! [EMC Labs BTC Weekly Observation (02.10~02.16): "Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks" Make Progress, Low Fluctuation Shock BTC Will Choose Direction](https://img.gateio. im/social/moments-c569f189955d49f763b2bd1d9c205454)

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BTC opened at $96481.47 and closed at $96119.88 this week, with a 0.37% decrease throughout the week and a narrowed fluctuation of 5%. The trading volume significantly shrank. The BTC price still remains within the "Trump Bottom" range of $89000 to $110000.

Due to the early reaction, several major events in this week's schedule, such as the release of the U.S. January CPI, the imposition of U.S. equivalent tariffs, and Powell's semi-annual monetary policy statement, did not have a significant impact on the U.S. stock market and the BTC cryptocurrency market.

With the US promoting the transition of the "Russia-Ukraine war" to peace talks, market sentiment seems to be leaning towards optimism. The US dollar index has fallen sharply, US bond yields continue to decline, and US stock indexes are once again approaching historical highs. The negative impact of Trump's trade seems to be dissipating, but further confirmation from the market is needed.

BTC is still operating within the 'Trump Bottom' (89000 ~ 110000 US dollars), the price has fallen below the second uptrend line, oscillating narrowly around 97000, and is expected to make a directional choice soon.

Macro Financial and Economic Data

The January CPI released by the United States this week exceeded expectations across the board, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, higher than the market's expected 2.9% and 0.3%. Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.1%.

The data shows that the economy remains strong, with some fluctuation in inflation. This data has once again lowered the expectations of interest rate cuts for this year, and the current market tends to only cut interest rates once, around December.

During his semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress, Powell mentioned that if the economy continues to grow and inflation does not quickly fall back to the target level of 2%, the Fed may maintain its current policy for a period of time. Conversely, if the labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation falls more than expected, the Fed may continue to moderately ease monetary policy.

Similar statements have been made many times and have no new meaning. However, considering that the Trump administration has reached a tacit understanding with the Federal Reserve, this statement can be regarded as implicitly endorsed by the U.S. government. Therefore, it is unlikely that interest rates will be lowered in a booming economy.

In addition, after the dramatic changes in the 'tariff on steel and aluminum', Trump's tariff policy has had an increasingly smaller impact on the market. This week, Trump announced that 'equal tariffs' would be implemented for all countries, but without a clear start date, so it did not have a real impact on the market.

The '俄乌冲突' seems to be making significant progress. Trump is pushing for dialogue and negotiations between the two sides, and there are also reports of conditions from both sides. At the Munich Security Conference, Trump emphasized the necessity of ending the conflict.

As an important event affecting the world economy, the 'Russia-Ukraine conflict' will undoubtedly bring a significant positive variable to the global economy and financial markets if it ends. As a result, the US Dollar Index fell by 1.22% to 106.813, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.48%, and the three major US stock indexes all recorded weekly gains, with Nasdaq up 2.58%, S&P 500 up 1.47%, and Dow Jones up 0.55%. London Gold rose by 0.75, hitting a new high of $2942.60 per ounce intraday.

The suppression of market long confidence by Trump's tariffs and the Fed's expected downward adjustment seems to be dissipating, of course, a clearer direction needs to wait for further market confirmation.

Selling Pressure and Selling

In terms of selling pressure, long and short positions collectively sold 1371.78 million coins, a significant decrease from last week, and the trading volume of the exchange also shrank significantly during the same period, indicating that short-term panic selling has greatly diminished. At present, the average profit level of short positions has dropped to 6%, and there is no need for either profit taking or stop loss.

On the long side, the sell-off was suspended this week, and the size of the open interest increased by 8,000 pieces.

Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF

Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF, ETH Spot ETF channels saw a total outflow of 2.52 billion US dollars throughout the week, with stablecoins seeing an inflow of 3.62 billion, and BTC Spot ETF and ETH Spot ETF seeing outflows of 5.84 billion and 0.29 billion US dollars respectively.

The outflow of funds from the ETF market was the main reason for the weaker trend of BTC compared to the US stock market last week.

Cycle Indicator

According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics metric is 0.75 and the market is on the upswing.

EMC Labs (Emerging Laboratory)

Created in April 2023 by cryptoasset investors and data scientists. Focusing on blockchain industry research and crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, it is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets to bring benefits to mankind.

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