1. Vitalik releases the L2 security and finality roadmap, outlining the three core directions for Ethereum scaling.
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin published a lengthy article on March 29 titled "A Simple L2 Security and Finality Roadmap," outlining three core directions for Ethereum L2 scaling. The first is to expand data capacity, increasing the Blob space to 6 through the Pectra upgrade, and expanding it to 72 in the upcoming Fusaka upgrade at the end of the year, to meet the throughput demands of L2 transactions.
Secondly, a hybrid proof system is used to achieve fast finality, including optimistic proofs, ZK proofs, and TEE trusted hardware proofs. If both ZK and TEE are verified simultaneously, finality is reached immediately; if only one type of verification is done, a 7-day optimistic challenge period is required. Thirdly, a unified ZK proof aggregation layer is constructed, standardizing the proof aggregation protocol for the entire ecosystem, allowing multiple applications to share the cost of a single proof, significantly reducing ZK verification overhead.
The roadmap aims to achieve finality for L2 cross-chain bridging within 1 hour through a short-term hybrid verification mechanism while reducing costs, and gradually eliminating TEE dependency with a long-term goal of full ZK implementation, ultimately establishing an efficient, secure, and trustless L2 ecosystem. This roadmap provides a clear direction for Ethereum's L2 scaling, which will promote the implementation of Layer 2 scaling solutions, enhance Ethereum's scalability and usability, and is expected to strengthen its position in the crypto market.
2. Brazilian officials claim that Bitcoin reserves are "crucial" for national prosperity.
According to reports, a senior official in Brazil recently stated that establishing a Bitcoin reserve for Brazil is crucial for the country's prosperity. This statement has drawn widespread attention and is seen as a signal that the Brazilian government is seriously considering incorporating Bitcoin into its national reserve assets.
The official emphasized that Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital asset, can effectively avoid the risks of a single sovereign currency, providing Brazil with new channels for wealth preservation and international payments. He pointed out that, against the backdrop of current geopolitical tensions and increasing global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin reserves can provide Brazil with strategic asset allocation.
Analysts believe that if Brazil truly establishes a Bitcoin reserve, it will set a precedent for other countries to follow and is expected to promote broader recognition and adoption of Bitcoin at the sovereign state level. However, there are also views questioning the suitability of Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, arguing that issues such as its high volatility and lack of regulation still need to be addressed.
Overall, the remarks of senior officials in Brazil have once again brought Bitcoin to the international stage, sparking lively discussions around sovereign digital currency reserves. Whether Bitcoin can truly become a national reserve asset remains to be seen over time.
3. CFTC revokes two employee advisory opinions related to digital assets, eliminating regulatory discrepancies
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) has recently rescinded two employee advisories related to digital assets, aiming to eliminate discrepancies in the regulation of digital derivatives. This move is seen as an important signal of the CFTC further clarifying its regulatory stance on digital assets.
The CFTC stated that, due to its employees having accumulated sufficient experience in virtual currency derivatives, the two previously issued advisory opinions are no longer needed. These two opinions were published in 2018 and 2019, aimed at providing guidance to CFTC employees regarding the listing of digital asset derivatives.
After revoking these comments, the CFTC emphasized that the same principles will apply to the listing of any derivative products, including the idea that products cannot be easily manipulated. The CFTC stated that this move will not affect its ability to oversee the clearing of derivative markets and to avoid systemic risks.
Analysts believe that the CFTC's move aims to unify the regulatory standards for digital asset derivatives, eliminating the uncertainty brought about by regulatory differences. This will create a fairer and more transparent environment for the digital asset derivatives market, conducive to attracting more institutional participants. At the same time, it also reflects the CFTC's determination and confidence in the regulation of digital assets.
4. New Jersey regulators urge Kalshi to stop offering sports betting services.
According to reports, New Jersey regulators have ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports event-based prediction markets to local residents in New Jersey. Previously, Kalshi had collaborated to launch a prediction market focused on the NCAA basketball tournament.
The regulatory authorities in New Jersey believe that this sports event-based prediction market actually constitutes illegal sports betting activities, which violate the state's relevant laws. Therefore, it requires Kalshi to immediately cease providing such services to residents of New Jersey.
Kalshi argues that they provide a legitimate prediction market based on event outcomes, which does not fall under the category of sports betting. There is a disagreement between the two parties on this issue, which may lead to legal disputes.
Analysts point out that this incident reflects the tightening regulatory attitude of regulators towards emerging crypto assets and related financial products. Prediction markets are seen as an innovative financial tool, but their compliance still exists in a gray area, requiring clear regulatory rules. Furthermore, this also highlights the regulatory divide between crypto assets and traditional finance, necessitating the establishment of a unified regulatory framework.
Overall, this move by the New Jersey regulators has once again sparked widespread attention and discussion regarding the regulation of crypto assets. The establishment of relevant regulatory rules may become a key factor in the development of the industry.
5. The FDIC has released new guidelines, clarifying the process for banks to participate in cryptocurrency activities.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ( FDIC ) recently released new guidelines that clarify the process for banks to participate in cryptocurrency activities, which is seen as an important step towards the mainstreaming of cryptocurrency.
According to the new guidelines, banks can engage in cryptocurrency and other legally permitted activities without seeking prior approval from regulatory authorities, as long as they can appropriately manage risks. This means that the threshold for banks to participate in cryptocurrency activities has been further lowered.
The FDIC emphasizes that the updated policy aims to encourage innovation in banks while highlighting the importance of sound risk management practices. Collaboration with regulators is also emphasized to enhance policy management of digital asset activities.
Analysts believe that the FDIC's move will clear obstacles for the banking sector to participate in cryptocurrency activities, facilitating the application of cryptocurrencies in the traditional financial system. At the same time, it also reflects that regulators are gradually accepting cryptocurrencies, paving the way for their legitimate status in the mainstream financial sector.
However, there are also views that the new FDIC guidelines, although simplifying the process, do not completely eliminate the regulatory risks for banks participating in cryptocurrency activities. In the future, regulatory agencies may further clarify relevant rules to ensure the stability of the financial system and the protection of consumer interests.
2. Industry Data
1. BTC
The recent transaction price of Bitcoin is 85211.4000 USD, with a daily drop of -2.50%.
2. ETH
The recent trading price of Ethereum is $1910.3600, with a daily decline of -5.70%.
3. MUBARAK
The recent transaction price of MUBARAK is $0.0948, with a daily decline of -38.30%.
4. VINE
The recent transaction price of VINE is $0.0238, with a daily decline of -10.40%.
5. GT
The recent trading price of GT is $23.1300, with a daily decline of -2.40%.
3. Industry News
1. Bitcoin price is under pressure, dipping to $83,000, with a double top pattern triggering a sell warning.
Bitcoin continues its previous downtrend, dipping to $83,387. During the same period, U.S. stocks faced intensified selling, with the Dow Jones plummeting 700 points and the S&P 500 index dropping 112 points, erasing a trillion in market value in a single day. The market attributes the panic to the February core PCE price index rising unexpectedly to 2.8%, compounded by the Trump administration's announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars, creating a chain reaction in the market.
On the technical front, the double top pattern triggers a sell warning. Trader Peter Brandt has issued a warning that the BTC daily chart has formed a "bearish wedge", with the double top pattern establishing a target of $65,635. Analysts believe that Bitcoin has failed to break the long-term downtrend line and may continue a volatile downward trend in the short term.
Despite facing downward pressure, Bitcoin remains strong on fundamentals. South African exchanges report that as Bitcoin continues to hit new all-time highs, cryptocurrency trading volumes have "more than doubled," with positive market sentiment indicating confidence and strong momentum in the crypto market.
2. Ethereum faces a significant setback, the backlash from the L2 ecosystem may shake the mainnet's position.
Ethereum has fallen over 6% in the past 48 hours, raising concerns in the market. Analysts warn that Ethereum's investment appeal is declining as layer two networks siphon value away from the main blockchain, while token creation is increasing uncontrollably. The ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to a five-year low of 0.02260, with the current trading price of Ethereum at $1,894, down 5.34% over the past week.
Despite the bearish market sentiment, embracing Layer 2 solutions presents challenges, but it also provides opportunities for enhancing Ethereum's scalability and usability, which may strengthen its position in the cryptocurrency market.
Ethereum monthly futures typically maintain a premium of 5% to 10% due to delivery cycle risks, but since the price correction on March 8, this indicator has remained below the neutral threshold. Some analysts point out that the sharp decline in Ethereum network activity has directly weakened the appeal of ETH. Although Layer 2 scaling solutions improve transaction efficiency, they have led to a decline in mainnet fee income.
3. Cryptocurrency market sentiment turns to panic, mainstream coins plunge across the board.
On March 29, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped significantly to 26, indicating a sentiment level of fear. In the past 24 hours, the net outflow of crypto spot funds shows a net outflow of $351 million for BTC, $47.99 million for SOL, $18.87 million for DOGE, $16.28 million for BNB, and $10.1 million for ADA.
Mainstream cryptocurrencies have all fallen, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Ripple, Dogecoin, Cardano, Solana, and Tron experiencing varying degrees of price declines. In a recent liquidation of $339 million, Bitcoin long positions were particularly affected.
Market analysts believe that Bitcoin's price may drop to $72,000 due to reduced macro liquidity, impacting the market as investors turn to traditional assets under global tightening conditions. If Trump implements comprehensive tariffs, the strengthening of the dollar may not be sustainable, which could further intensify downward pressure on cryptocurrencies.
However, some analysts are optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. The global macro director of Fidelity Investments believes that Bitcoin has a "possible" path to surpass the market value of gold, but "not anytime soon." He used charts to explain his views on the expected growth of gold and Bitcoin.
4. Project News
1. The Sui ecosystem is accelerating development, and Move-based projects are leading a new wave of innovation.
Sui is a brand new blockchain ecosystem created by a team of engineers who were involved in the design of Diem. Sui uses the Move programming language and aims to provide high-performance, low-cost distributed applications.
Latest news: The Sui ecosystem is accelerating its development. During the TOKEN2049 conference in Singapore, Sui ecosystem projects such as Cetus, Navi, and Scallop attracted widespread attention. Sui also launched the handheld gaming console SuiPlay0X1, providing users with an immersive gaming experience. In addition, the launch of Grayscale Trust and Native USDC on Sui has injected new momentum into the Sui ecosystem.
Market Impact: The Move system project is expected to lead a new wave of innovation. The rise of projects like Sui marks the development of blockchain technology towards higher performance and lower costs. The correlation between the Move language and Rust has also attracted many developers to join the Move camp. More innovative projects are expected to emerge in the Move ecosystem in the future.
Industry feedback: Industry insiders are full of expectations for Move series projects. Some technicians believe that Sui's technology and documentation are superior. However, there are concerns that Sui has fewer tradable assets and needs more star projects to join. Overall, the industry holds an optimistic view on the development prospects of Move series projects.
2. Hyperliquid releases ZK roadmap, promoting efficient development of L2 ecosystem.
Hyperliquid is a decentralized Layer 2 network focused on improving Ethereum's scalability and privacy. The project has recently released a ZK roadmap aimed at promoting the efficient development of the L2 ecosystem.
Latest Update: Hyperliquid's ZK roadmap includes three key components: multi-signature mechanism, unified ZK proof aggregation layer, and long-term goal of full ZK implementation. The multi-signature mechanism combines optimistic proofs, ZK proofs, and TEE trusted hardware proofs to achieve L2 cross-chain bridging finality within 1 hour. The unified ZK proof aggregation layer allows multiple applications to share single proof costs, significantly reducing ZK verification overhead. The long-term goal is to gradually eliminate TEE dependency and establish an efficient, secure, and trustless L2 ecosystem.
Market Impact: Hyperliquid's ZK roadmap is expected to drive efficient development of the L2 ecosystem, enhancing Ethereum's scalability and privacy. This will help attract more developers and users to join the Ethereum ecosystem, strengthening Ethereum's leadership position in the cryptocurrency market.
Industry feedback: Insiders welcome Hyperliquid's ZK roadmap. Some analysts believe that this roadmap will help reduce costs in the L2 ecosystem and promote the adoption of privacy protocols and other scenarios. However, some are concerned that the complexity of ZK technology may pose challenges. Overall, the industry has high expectations for Hyperliquid's innovations.
3. Reserve Protocol leads the RWA track trend, endorsed by the SEC chair nominee.
Reserve Protocol is a decentralized stablecoin protocol that focuses on permissionless minting, decentralized ETFs, and an anti-inflation currency vision. The project has recently received endorsement from SEC chairman nominee Paul Atkins, leading the trend in the RWA space.
Latest update: Paul Atkins stated that he will "create a strong regulatory framework for digital assets." This is seen as support for RWA projects such as Reserve Protocol. Meanwhile, the market value of tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds has surpassed $5 billion, and demand for the RWA sector is surging. Reserve Protocol, as an established stablecoin protocol, has risen to prominence due to its advantages such as permissionless minting.
Market Impact: The rise of Reserve Protocol is expected to drive the development of the RWA track. RWA projects can provide investors with more diversified investment tools to meet different risk preferences. It also helps to improve liquidity and efficiency in the crypto market. More institutional capital is expected to enter the RWA track in the future.
Industry feedback: Insiders are optimistic about the prospects of the RWA track. Some analysts believe that RWA projects can help traditional finance better integrate with the crypto market. However, there are also concerns that regulatory uncertainty may affect the development of RWA projects. Overall, the industry is taking a wait-and-see attitude toward whether projects like Reserve Protocol can lead the RWA track.
5. Economic Dynamics
1. Federal Reserve Board member Barr: Artificial intelligence may have a significant impact on productivity and the economy.
Economic Background:
The U.S. economy faced dual pressures of high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates in 2022. Nevertheless, the GDP growth data for the first quarter of 2023 exceeded expectations, indicating that the economy remains resilient. However, the inflation rate climbed again in February, reaching 6%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The unemployment rate hovers at a low of 3.6%, and the job market remains tight.
Important events:
Federal Reserve Board member Barr stated in a speech that artificial intelligence could have a significant impact on productivity and the economy. He pointed out that AI has the potential to increase production efficiency, reduce costs, and drive economic growth. However, it may also lead to job losses and exacerbate income inequality. Barr urged governments and businesses to prepare for the widespread application of AI.
Market Reaction:
Investors have differing views on the economic impact of artificial intelligence. Some believe that AI will drive a surge in productivity, injecting new vitality into the economy. However, others are concerned that AI may replace a large amount of human labor, leading to massive unemployment. Tech stocks experienced slight fluctuations after Barr's speech, reflecting the market's uncertainty about this emerging force.
Expert Analysis:
Economist Graham Steiner pointed out that the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy will be a double-edged sword. It can improve efficiency, but it may also exacerbate the wealth gap. The government needs to formulate corresponding policies to ensure that the development of artificial intelligence benefits all citizens. Another expert, James Bryan, believes that artificial intelligence will fundamentally change the job market, necessitating a strong emphasis on education and vocational training to help workers adapt to the new situation.
2. Federal Reserve's Daly: Friday's PCE inflation data confirms my view that confidence in my own baseline forecast has declined.
Economic Background:
U.S. inflation remains high, with the core PCE price index rising to an annual rate of 4.7% in February, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Nevertheless, the labor market remains strong, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a low of 3.6%. To curb inflation, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates continuously since March of last year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75%-5%. However, the path of inflation is bumpy, and there is uncertainty regarding the economic outlook.
Important Events:
Federal Reserve Governor Daly stated in a speech that the PCE price index data for February, released on Friday, confirms his declining confidence in his own baseline forecast. This core inflation indicator exceeded expectations, showing that inflationary pressures are still ongoing. Daly emphasized that he will be 100% focused on the issue of inflation, and the risk of stagflation cannot be ignored.
Market reaction:
Daly's speech has sparked speculation in the market about the pace of interest rate hikes. Investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by another 25 basis points in May. However, some analysts believe that if inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve may have to take more aggressive actions. U.S. stocks dipped slightly after Daly's speech, reflecting investors' concerns about the economic outlook.
Expert Analysis:
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that the situation facing the Federal Reserve is exceptionally severe. On one hand, it needs to continue raising interest rates to control inflation, while on the other hand, it cannot raise rates too much to avoid a hard landing for the economy. Hatzius believes that the Federal Reserve may raise rates by 25 basis points in May, and then pause to assess the situation. Another expert believes that the Federal Reserve should be more decisive and quickly raise interest rates to above 6% in order to truly suppress inflation expectations.
The offshore Chinese yuan fell 24 points against the US dollar compared to Thursday's New York close.
Economic Background:
China's economy gradually recovered after the impact of the pandemic in 2022, with a year-on-year GDP growth of 4.5% in the first quarter of 2023, exceeding expectations. However, inflationary pressures have risen, with the CPI increasing by 3.7% year-on-year in March, the highest since September of last year. The Renminbi exchange rate experienced a significant depreciation in the second half of 2022, but has stabilized somewhat since the beginning of 2023.
Important Events:
On March 29, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate fell by 24 points compared to Thursday's New York close, reporting at 7.2704 yuan. The RMB exchange rate has recently shown slight fluctuations, reflecting the market's divergence on the outlook for the Chinese economy. On one hand, the recovery momentum of the Chinese economy is strong, supporting expectations for RMB appreciation. On the other hand, rising inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes also bring depreciation pressure on the RMB.
Market reaction:
The fluctuation of the renminbi exchange rate has attracted market attention. Some investors believe that the recovery of the Chinese economy will support the appreciation of the renminbi and suggest increasing allocations to renminbi assets. However, some analysts are concerned that high inflation may force China to tighten its monetary policy, which could lead to the depreciation of the renminbi. Overall, there are differing views in the market regarding the outlook for the renminbi.
Expert Analysis:
Zhou Xiaochuan, the former governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the RMB exchange rate may remain volatile in both directions in the short term, but the long-term trend will depend on China's economic fundamentals. He believes that as long as the Chinese economy maintains rapid growth, the RMB will not experience sustained depreciation. Another expert believes that the Fed's interest rate hikes and the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China could lead to a depreciation of the RMB by about 5% in the coming year.
6. Regulation & Policy
1. CFTC Withdraws Regulation Differences for Digital Asset Derivatives in the U.S.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced the immediate withdrawal of two employee advisory opinions related to digital assets to eliminate regulatory discrepancies regarding digital asset derivatives and other products.
The CFTC's Clearing and Risk Management Division has revoked Memorandum 23-07 "Regarding the Risk Review of Digital Asset DCO Clearing Expansion" and Memorandum 18-14 "Regarding Advice on the Listing of Virtual Currency Derivatives." This move aims to ensure that the regulation of digital asset derivatives is consistent with other products.
The CFTC stated that due to the increased experience of staff in the listing of virtual currency derivatives products, as well as the growth and maturity of the market, these two advisory opinions are no longer necessary. The updated policy marks a shift in the agency's attitude towards digital assets, emphasizing the importance of sound risk management practices. Collaboration with regulators is also emphasized to enhance the policy management of digital asset activities.
Market participants believe that this move will facilitate the listing of cryptocurrency futures for digital asset companies and contribute to the development of the sector. However, some analysts have pointed out that regulators need to keep up with the times and establish a more comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets to ensure a fair and orderly market.
2. The FDIC in the United States relaxes regulations on banks participating in cryptocurrency activities
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) of the United States has released new guidelines clarifying that banks under its supervision can engage in compliant cryptocurrency-related activities without prior approval, as long as they can effectively manage the associated risks.
The new guidelines revoke the 2022 requirement that banks must obtain FDIC approval before engaging in emerging technologies such as cryptocurrencies. The FDIC stated that the move aims to promote the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies and facilitate banks' participation in related activities.
This change reflects the shifting attitude of the U.S. government towards cryptocurrencies, aimed at promoting growth and opportunities in the industry. David Sacks, the White House's cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence director, stated that the FDIC's new policy is one of the best ways to drive the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies.
However, some analysts have expressed concerns about this. They believe that the FDIC should adopt a cautious, phased approach to reform, focusing on issues such as the review of existing regulations, the adoption of innovations, and the approval process for bank mergers, in order to address the challenges of the cryptocurrency era. Regulators need to seek a balance between promoting innovation and maintaining financial stability.
3. Panama unveils draft cryptocurrency regulation bill
Panama has announced a comprehensive draft bill that will regulate cryptocurrency oversight and promote the development of blockchain services. According to the bill, digital assets are recognized as legitimate means of payment, allowing individuals and businesses to freely agree on their use in commercial and civil contracts.
The draft clearly authorizes the use of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins to purchase goods, pay for services, and settle debts, provided that both parties agree. At the same time, a regulatory framework has been established for virtual asset service providers, requiring them to register in a national database and comply with anti-money laundering guidelines, or they may face sanctions or penalties.
This initiative aims to provide legal protection for the use of cryptocurrencies in Panama while strengthening regulation to prevent risks. Analysts believe that this bill will promote the application of blockchain technology in Panama, creating a favorable environment for cryptocurrency businesses. However, some experts warn that regulatory agencies need to keep up with the times and develop a more comprehensive regulatory framework to address the challenges posed by emerging technologies.
Industry insiders have mixed reactions to this. Some companies welcome the bill, believing it will promote the development of cryptocurrency locally. However, others are concerned that excessive regulation may hinder innovation and are calling for the government to seek a balance between promoting development and preventing risks.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
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Bankriyan
· 03-29 18:44
Bull Run 🐂
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Bankriyan
· 03-29 18:41
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3.29 AI Daily: Three Major Directions of Ethereum L2 Scalability Leading New Developments in the Encryption Industry
1. Headlines
1. Vitalik releases the L2 security and finality roadmap, outlining the three core directions for Ethereum scaling.
Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin published a lengthy article on March 29 titled "A Simple L2 Security and Finality Roadmap," outlining three core directions for Ethereum L2 scaling. The first is to expand data capacity, increasing the Blob space to 6 through the Pectra upgrade, and expanding it to 72 in the upcoming Fusaka upgrade at the end of the year, to meet the throughput demands of L2 transactions.
Secondly, a hybrid proof system is used to achieve fast finality, including optimistic proofs, ZK proofs, and TEE trusted hardware proofs. If both ZK and TEE are verified simultaneously, finality is reached immediately; if only one type of verification is done, a 7-day optimistic challenge period is required. Thirdly, a unified ZK proof aggregation layer is constructed, standardizing the proof aggregation protocol for the entire ecosystem, allowing multiple applications to share the cost of a single proof, significantly reducing ZK verification overhead.
The roadmap aims to achieve finality for L2 cross-chain bridging within 1 hour through a short-term hybrid verification mechanism while reducing costs, and gradually eliminating TEE dependency with a long-term goal of full ZK implementation, ultimately establishing an efficient, secure, and trustless L2 ecosystem. This roadmap provides a clear direction for Ethereum's L2 scaling, which will promote the implementation of Layer 2 scaling solutions, enhance Ethereum's scalability and usability, and is expected to strengthen its position in the crypto market.
2. Brazilian officials claim that Bitcoin reserves are "crucial" for national prosperity.
According to reports, a senior official in Brazil recently stated that establishing a Bitcoin reserve for Brazil is crucial for the country's prosperity. This statement has drawn widespread attention and is seen as a signal that the Brazilian government is seriously considering incorporating Bitcoin into its national reserve assets.
The official emphasized that Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital asset, can effectively avoid the risks of a single sovereign currency, providing Brazil with new channels for wealth preservation and international payments. He pointed out that, against the backdrop of current geopolitical tensions and increasing global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin reserves can provide Brazil with strategic asset allocation.
Analysts believe that if Brazil truly establishes a Bitcoin reserve, it will set a precedent for other countries to follow and is expected to promote broader recognition and adoption of Bitcoin at the sovereign state level. However, there are also views questioning the suitability of Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, arguing that issues such as its high volatility and lack of regulation still need to be addressed.
Overall, the remarks of senior officials in Brazil have once again brought Bitcoin to the international stage, sparking lively discussions around sovereign digital currency reserves. Whether Bitcoin can truly become a national reserve asset remains to be seen over time.
3. CFTC revokes two employee advisory opinions related to digital assets, eliminating regulatory discrepancies
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) has recently rescinded two employee advisories related to digital assets, aiming to eliminate discrepancies in the regulation of digital derivatives. This move is seen as an important signal of the CFTC further clarifying its regulatory stance on digital assets.
The CFTC stated that, due to its employees having accumulated sufficient experience in virtual currency derivatives, the two previously issued advisory opinions are no longer needed. These two opinions were published in 2018 and 2019, aimed at providing guidance to CFTC employees regarding the listing of digital asset derivatives.
After revoking these comments, the CFTC emphasized that the same principles will apply to the listing of any derivative products, including the idea that products cannot be easily manipulated. The CFTC stated that this move will not affect its ability to oversee the clearing of derivative markets and to avoid systemic risks.
Analysts believe that the CFTC's move aims to unify the regulatory standards for digital asset derivatives, eliminating the uncertainty brought about by regulatory differences. This will create a fairer and more transparent environment for the digital asset derivatives market, conducive to attracting more institutional participants. At the same time, it also reflects the CFTC's determination and confidence in the regulation of digital assets.
4. New Jersey regulators urge Kalshi to stop offering sports betting services.
According to reports, New Jersey regulators have ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports event-based prediction markets to local residents in New Jersey. Previously, Kalshi had collaborated to launch a prediction market focused on the NCAA basketball tournament.
The regulatory authorities in New Jersey believe that this sports event-based prediction market actually constitutes illegal sports betting activities, which violate the state's relevant laws. Therefore, it requires Kalshi to immediately cease providing such services to residents of New Jersey.
Kalshi argues that they provide a legitimate prediction market based on event outcomes, which does not fall under the category of sports betting. There is a disagreement between the two parties on this issue, which may lead to legal disputes.
Analysts point out that this incident reflects the tightening regulatory attitude of regulators towards emerging crypto assets and related financial products. Prediction markets are seen as an innovative financial tool, but their compliance still exists in a gray area, requiring clear regulatory rules. Furthermore, this also highlights the regulatory divide between crypto assets and traditional finance, necessitating the establishment of a unified regulatory framework.
Overall, this move by the New Jersey regulators has once again sparked widespread attention and discussion regarding the regulation of crypto assets. The establishment of relevant regulatory rules may become a key factor in the development of the industry.
5. The FDIC has released new guidelines, clarifying the process for banks to participate in cryptocurrency activities.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ( FDIC ) recently released new guidelines that clarify the process for banks to participate in cryptocurrency activities, which is seen as an important step towards the mainstreaming of cryptocurrency.
According to the new guidelines, banks can engage in cryptocurrency and other legally permitted activities without seeking prior approval from regulatory authorities, as long as they can appropriately manage risks. This means that the threshold for banks to participate in cryptocurrency activities has been further lowered.
The FDIC emphasizes that the updated policy aims to encourage innovation in banks while highlighting the importance of sound risk management practices. Collaboration with regulators is also emphasized to enhance policy management of digital asset activities.
Analysts believe that the FDIC's move will clear obstacles for the banking sector to participate in cryptocurrency activities, facilitating the application of cryptocurrencies in the traditional financial system. At the same time, it also reflects that regulators are gradually accepting cryptocurrencies, paving the way for their legitimate status in the mainstream financial sector.
However, there are also views that the new FDIC guidelines, although simplifying the process, do not completely eliminate the regulatory risks for banks participating in cryptocurrency activities. In the future, regulatory agencies may further clarify relevant rules to ensure the stability of the financial system and the protection of consumer interests.
2. Industry Data
1. BTC
The recent transaction price of Bitcoin is 85211.4000 USD, with a daily drop of -2.50%.
2. ETH
The recent trading price of Ethereum is $1910.3600, with a daily decline of -5.70%.
3. MUBARAK
The recent transaction price of MUBARAK is $0.0948, with a daily decline of -38.30%.
4. VINE
The recent transaction price of VINE is $0.0238, with a daily decline of -10.40%.
5. GT
The recent trading price of GT is $23.1300, with a daily decline of -2.40%.
3. Industry News
1. Bitcoin price is under pressure, dipping to $83,000, with a double top pattern triggering a sell warning.
Bitcoin continues its previous downtrend, dipping to $83,387. During the same period, U.S. stocks faced intensified selling, with the Dow Jones plummeting 700 points and the S&P 500 index dropping 112 points, erasing a trillion in market value in a single day. The market attributes the panic to the February core PCE price index rising unexpectedly to 2.8%, compounded by the Trump administration's announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars, creating a chain reaction in the market.
On the technical front, the double top pattern triggers a sell warning. Trader Peter Brandt has issued a warning that the BTC daily chart has formed a "bearish wedge", with the double top pattern establishing a target of $65,635. Analysts believe that Bitcoin has failed to break the long-term downtrend line and may continue a volatile downward trend in the short term.
Despite facing downward pressure, Bitcoin remains strong on fundamentals. South African exchanges report that as Bitcoin continues to hit new all-time highs, cryptocurrency trading volumes have "more than doubled," with positive market sentiment indicating confidence and strong momentum in the crypto market.
2. Ethereum faces a significant setback, the backlash from the L2 ecosystem may shake the mainnet's position.
Ethereum has fallen over 6% in the past 48 hours, raising concerns in the market. Analysts warn that Ethereum's investment appeal is declining as layer two networks siphon value away from the main blockchain, while token creation is increasing uncontrollably. The ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to a five-year low of 0.02260, with the current trading price of Ethereum at $1,894, down 5.34% over the past week.
Despite the bearish market sentiment, embracing Layer 2 solutions presents challenges, but it also provides opportunities for enhancing Ethereum's scalability and usability, which may strengthen its position in the cryptocurrency market.
Ethereum monthly futures typically maintain a premium of 5% to 10% due to delivery cycle risks, but since the price correction on March 8, this indicator has remained below the neutral threshold. Some analysts point out that the sharp decline in Ethereum network activity has directly weakened the appeal of ETH. Although Layer 2 scaling solutions improve transaction efficiency, they have led to a decline in mainnet fee income.
3. Cryptocurrency market sentiment turns to panic, mainstream coins plunge across the board.
On March 29, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped significantly to 26, indicating a sentiment level of fear. In the past 24 hours, the net outflow of crypto spot funds shows a net outflow of $351 million for BTC, $47.99 million for SOL, $18.87 million for DOGE, $16.28 million for BNB, and $10.1 million for ADA.
Mainstream cryptocurrencies have all fallen, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Ripple, Dogecoin, Cardano, Solana, and Tron experiencing varying degrees of price declines. In a recent liquidation of $339 million, Bitcoin long positions were particularly affected.
Market analysts believe that Bitcoin's price may drop to $72,000 due to reduced macro liquidity, impacting the market as investors turn to traditional assets under global tightening conditions. If Trump implements comprehensive tariffs, the strengthening of the dollar may not be sustainable, which could further intensify downward pressure on cryptocurrencies.
However, some analysts are optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. The global macro director of Fidelity Investments believes that Bitcoin has a "possible" path to surpass the market value of gold, but "not anytime soon." He used charts to explain his views on the expected growth of gold and Bitcoin.
4. Project News
1. The Sui ecosystem is accelerating development, and Move-based projects are leading a new wave of innovation.
Sui is a brand new blockchain ecosystem created by a team of engineers who were involved in the design of Diem. Sui uses the Move programming language and aims to provide high-performance, low-cost distributed applications.
Latest news: The Sui ecosystem is accelerating its development. During the TOKEN2049 conference in Singapore, Sui ecosystem projects such as Cetus, Navi, and Scallop attracted widespread attention. Sui also launched the handheld gaming console SuiPlay0X1, providing users with an immersive gaming experience. In addition, the launch of Grayscale Trust and Native USDC on Sui has injected new momentum into the Sui ecosystem.
Market Impact: The Move system project is expected to lead a new wave of innovation. The rise of projects like Sui marks the development of blockchain technology towards higher performance and lower costs. The correlation between the Move language and Rust has also attracted many developers to join the Move camp. More innovative projects are expected to emerge in the Move ecosystem in the future.
Industry feedback: Industry insiders are full of expectations for Move series projects. Some technicians believe that Sui's technology and documentation are superior. However, there are concerns that Sui has fewer tradable assets and needs more star projects to join. Overall, the industry holds an optimistic view on the development prospects of Move series projects.
2. Hyperliquid releases ZK roadmap, promoting efficient development of L2 ecosystem.
Hyperliquid is a decentralized Layer 2 network focused on improving Ethereum's scalability and privacy. The project has recently released a ZK roadmap aimed at promoting the efficient development of the L2 ecosystem.
Latest Update: Hyperliquid's ZK roadmap includes three key components: multi-signature mechanism, unified ZK proof aggregation layer, and long-term goal of full ZK implementation. The multi-signature mechanism combines optimistic proofs, ZK proofs, and TEE trusted hardware proofs to achieve L2 cross-chain bridging finality within 1 hour. The unified ZK proof aggregation layer allows multiple applications to share single proof costs, significantly reducing ZK verification overhead. The long-term goal is to gradually eliminate TEE dependency and establish an efficient, secure, and trustless L2 ecosystem.
Market Impact: Hyperliquid's ZK roadmap is expected to drive efficient development of the L2 ecosystem, enhancing Ethereum's scalability and privacy. This will help attract more developers and users to join the Ethereum ecosystem, strengthening Ethereum's leadership position in the cryptocurrency market.
Industry feedback: Insiders welcome Hyperliquid's ZK roadmap. Some analysts believe that this roadmap will help reduce costs in the L2 ecosystem and promote the adoption of privacy protocols and other scenarios. However, some are concerned that the complexity of ZK technology may pose challenges. Overall, the industry has high expectations for Hyperliquid's innovations.
3. Reserve Protocol leads the RWA track trend, endorsed by the SEC chair nominee.
Reserve Protocol is a decentralized stablecoin protocol that focuses on permissionless minting, decentralized ETFs, and an anti-inflation currency vision. The project has recently received endorsement from SEC chairman nominee Paul Atkins, leading the trend in the RWA space.
Latest update: Paul Atkins stated that he will "create a strong regulatory framework for digital assets." This is seen as support for RWA projects such as Reserve Protocol. Meanwhile, the market value of tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds has surpassed $5 billion, and demand for the RWA sector is surging. Reserve Protocol, as an established stablecoin protocol, has risen to prominence due to its advantages such as permissionless minting.
Market Impact: The rise of Reserve Protocol is expected to drive the development of the RWA track. RWA projects can provide investors with more diversified investment tools to meet different risk preferences. It also helps to improve liquidity and efficiency in the crypto market. More institutional capital is expected to enter the RWA track in the future.
Industry feedback: Insiders are optimistic about the prospects of the RWA track. Some analysts believe that RWA projects can help traditional finance better integrate with the crypto market. However, there are also concerns that regulatory uncertainty may affect the development of RWA projects. Overall, the industry is taking a wait-and-see attitude toward whether projects like Reserve Protocol can lead the RWA track.
5. Economic Dynamics
1. Federal Reserve Board member Barr: Artificial intelligence may have a significant impact on productivity and the economy.
Economic Background: The U.S. economy faced dual pressures of high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates in 2022. Nevertheless, the GDP growth data for the first quarter of 2023 exceeded expectations, indicating that the economy remains resilient. However, the inflation rate climbed again in February, reaching 6%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The unemployment rate hovers at a low of 3.6%, and the job market remains tight.
Important events: Federal Reserve Board member Barr stated in a speech that artificial intelligence could have a significant impact on productivity and the economy. He pointed out that AI has the potential to increase production efficiency, reduce costs, and drive economic growth. However, it may also lead to job losses and exacerbate income inequality. Barr urged governments and businesses to prepare for the widespread application of AI.
Market Reaction: Investors have differing views on the economic impact of artificial intelligence. Some believe that AI will drive a surge in productivity, injecting new vitality into the economy. However, others are concerned that AI may replace a large amount of human labor, leading to massive unemployment. Tech stocks experienced slight fluctuations after Barr's speech, reflecting the market's uncertainty about this emerging force.
Expert Analysis: Economist Graham Steiner pointed out that the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy will be a double-edged sword. It can improve efficiency, but it may also exacerbate the wealth gap. The government needs to formulate corresponding policies to ensure that the development of artificial intelligence benefits all citizens. Another expert, James Bryan, believes that artificial intelligence will fundamentally change the job market, necessitating a strong emphasis on education and vocational training to help workers adapt to the new situation.
2. Federal Reserve's Daly: Friday's PCE inflation data confirms my view that confidence in my own baseline forecast has declined.
Economic Background: U.S. inflation remains high, with the core PCE price index rising to an annual rate of 4.7% in February, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Nevertheless, the labor market remains strong, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a low of 3.6%. To curb inflation, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates continuously since March of last year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75%-5%. However, the path of inflation is bumpy, and there is uncertainty regarding the economic outlook.
Important Events: Federal Reserve Governor Daly stated in a speech that the PCE price index data for February, released on Friday, confirms his declining confidence in his own baseline forecast. This core inflation indicator exceeded expectations, showing that inflationary pressures are still ongoing. Daly emphasized that he will be 100% focused on the issue of inflation, and the risk of stagflation cannot be ignored.
Market reaction: Daly's speech has sparked speculation in the market about the pace of interest rate hikes. Investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by another 25 basis points in May. However, some analysts believe that if inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve may have to take more aggressive actions. U.S. stocks dipped slightly after Daly's speech, reflecting investors' concerns about the economic outlook.
Expert Analysis: Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that the situation facing the Federal Reserve is exceptionally severe. On one hand, it needs to continue raising interest rates to control inflation, while on the other hand, it cannot raise rates too much to avoid a hard landing for the economy. Hatzius believes that the Federal Reserve may raise rates by 25 basis points in May, and then pause to assess the situation. Another expert believes that the Federal Reserve should be more decisive and quickly raise interest rates to above 6% in order to truly suppress inflation expectations.
The offshore Chinese yuan fell 24 points against the US dollar compared to Thursday's New York close.
Economic Background: China's economy gradually recovered after the impact of the pandemic in 2022, with a year-on-year GDP growth of 4.5% in the first quarter of 2023, exceeding expectations. However, inflationary pressures have risen, with the CPI increasing by 3.7% year-on-year in March, the highest since September of last year. The Renminbi exchange rate experienced a significant depreciation in the second half of 2022, but has stabilized somewhat since the beginning of 2023.
Important Events: On March 29, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate fell by 24 points compared to Thursday's New York close, reporting at 7.2704 yuan. The RMB exchange rate has recently shown slight fluctuations, reflecting the market's divergence on the outlook for the Chinese economy. On one hand, the recovery momentum of the Chinese economy is strong, supporting expectations for RMB appreciation. On the other hand, rising inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes also bring depreciation pressure on the RMB.
Market reaction: The fluctuation of the renminbi exchange rate has attracted market attention. Some investors believe that the recovery of the Chinese economy will support the appreciation of the renminbi and suggest increasing allocations to renminbi assets. However, some analysts are concerned that high inflation may force China to tighten its monetary policy, which could lead to the depreciation of the renminbi. Overall, there are differing views in the market regarding the outlook for the renminbi.
Expert Analysis: Zhou Xiaochuan, the former governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the RMB exchange rate may remain volatile in both directions in the short term, but the long-term trend will depend on China's economic fundamentals. He believes that as long as the Chinese economy maintains rapid growth, the RMB will not experience sustained depreciation. Another expert believes that the Fed's interest rate hikes and the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China could lead to a depreciation of the RMB by about 5% in the coming year.
6. Regulation & Policy
1. CFTC Withdraws Regulation Differences for Digital Asset Derivatives in the U.S.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced the immediate withdrawal of two employee advisory opinions related to digital assets to eliminate regulatory discrepancies regarding digital asset derivatives and other products.
The CFTC's Clearing and Risk Management Division has revoked Memorandum 23-07 "Regarding the Risk Review of Digital Asset DCO Clearing Expansion" and Memorandum 18-14 "Regarding Advice on the Listing of Virtual Currency Derivatives." This move aims to ensure that the regulation of digital asset derivatives is consistent with other products.
The CFTC stated that due to the increased experience of staff in the listing of virtual currency derivatives products, as well as the growth and maturity of the market, these two advisory opinions are no longer necessary. The updated policy marks a shift in the agency's attitude towards digital assets, emphasizing the importance of sound risk management practices. Collaboration with regulators is also emphasized to enhance the policy management of digital asset activities.
Market participants believe that this move will facilitate the listing of cryptocurrency futures for digital asset companies and contribute to the development of the sector. However, some analysts have pointed out that regulators need to keep up with the times and establish a more comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets to ensure a fair and orderly market.
2. The FDIC in the United States relaxes regulations on banks participating in cryptocurrency activities
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) of the United States has released new guidelines clarifying that banks under its supervision can engage in compliant cryptocurrency-related activities without prior approval, as long as they can effectively manage the associated risks.
The new guidelines revoke the 2022 requirement that banks must obtain FDIC approval before engaging in emerging technologies such as cryptocurrencies. The FDIC stated that the move aims to promote the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies and facilitate banks' participation in related activities.
This change reflects the shifting attitude of the U.S. government towards cryptocurrencies, aimed at promoting growth and opportunities in the industry. David Sacks, the White House's cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence director, stated that the FDIC's new policy is one of the best ways to drive the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies.
However, some analysts have expressed concerns about this. They believe that the FDIC should adopt a cautious, phased approach to reform, focusing on issues such as the review of existing regulations, the adoption of innovations, and the approval process for bank mergers, in order to address the challenges of the cryptocurrency era. Regulators need to seek a balance between promoting innovation and maintaining financial stability.
3. Panama unveils draft cryptocurrency regulation bill
Panama has announced a comprehensive draft bill that will regulate cryptocurrency oversight and promote the development of blockchain services. According to the bill, digital assets are recognized as legitimate means of payment, allowing individuals and businesses to freely agree on their use in commercial and civil contracts.
The draft clearly authorizes the use of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins to purchase goods, pay for services, and settle debts, provided that both parties agree. At the same time, a regulatory framework has been established for virtual asset service providers, requiring them to register in a national database and comply with anti-money laundering guidelines, or they may face sanctions or penalties.
This initiative aims to provide legal protection for the use of cryptocurrencies in Panama while strengthening regulation to prevent risks. Analysts believe that this bill will promote the application of blockchain technology in Panama, creating a favorable environment for cryptocurrency businesses. However, some experts warn that regulatory agencies need to keep up with the times and develop a more comprehensive regulatory framework to address the challenges posed by emerging technologies.
Industry insiders have mixed reactions to this. Some companies welcome the bill, believing it will promote the development of cryptocurrency locally. However, others are concerned that excessive regulation may hinder innovation and are calling for the government to seek a balance between promoting development and preventing risks.
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