#美SEC推动加密创新监管 ETH just staged a textbook-level violent Whipsaw.

In just one hour, the price plummeted from $3052 to $2805, a drop of nearly 250 points that left those who chased the highs stunned. However, upon closer inspection, the price is currently stable around 2830—this level is not simple, as it coincides with the support from the lower Bollinger Band and the 7-day moving average.

What's more interesting are the on-chain actions. The inflow to exchanges plummeted by 40% in the past 60 minutes. While retail investors are panic-selling, three large addresses have accumulated about 12,000 $ETH (approximately 34 million USD) in the 2810-2820 range. The market is playing out the classic "retail investors cutting losses, whales picking up the pieces" script.

The trigger for this wave of selling was a false rumor about personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, but those who understand know that this kind of "negative news" comes quickly and goes just as fast, instead becoming a smokescreen for the main players to accumulate positions.

The timing is also very subtle. The Ethereum Fusaka upgrade is about to activate the mainnet on December 3, and the PeerDAS technology can directly halve the data costs of Layer 2, which is a transformative benefit for ecosystem expansion. Last week, BlackRock's ETH ETF just saw a net inflow of $257 million, and institutions are not panicking at all. Do you think the main players would really dump at such a critical moment?

From a technical perspective, although the one-hour MACD has briefly crossed into a dead cross, the green bars have significantly reduced in volume. Historical data shows that the support success rate at the lower Bollinger Band on an hourly basis is quite high. If it can hold above 2830 for the next two hours, the probability of a rebound to 2900 (the 30-day moving average resistance) is considerable, and once it stabilizes, 2950 will be the next target.

The golden pit after such a violent whipsaw is often the last opportunity to get in before an upgrade. Of course, there are no absolutes in the market, but the traces of this operation are already quite evident.