#数字资产市场观察 $BTC $ETH The signals of a Federal Reserve policy shift are becoming increasingly obvious.

The latest market data reveals a key message: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has climbed to 89.2%. This is not baseless speculation. Several Fed officials have recently and frequently cited the weakness in the labor market as their main reason for policy adjustment. Even more interesting, Trump’s potential dovish nominee, Hassett, has led the market to expect a more aggressive pace of rate cuts.

By January 2026, at least one rate cut is almost a certainty. There’s even a one-in-four chance we’ll see two consecutive cuts totaling 50 basis points. These expectations are reshaping the entire market’s risk appetite.

But what truly warrants attention is something else—the return of the bond-buying program.

The banking system’s reserve gap has already reached $200 billion to $300 billion, well below the so-called safety line. The liquidity provided by the Treasury is nowhere near enough, so the Fed will ultimately have to step in directly. The timeline is also fairly clear: a signal to stop balance sheet reduction may be released in December 2025, with actual bond purchases likely to start in Q1 2026, at an initial pace of around $50 billion to $100 billion per month.

Of course, there’s not perfect consensus internally. The Cleveland Fed has already started warning about the risks of excessive easing, and Powell is taking a cautious stance on acting immediately in December. This internal tug-of-war will affect the pace of policy rollout, but the overall direction is set.

The market’s reaction is direct. US stocks are rising, gold is surging, and the dollar is weakening. Long-term rates are falling, and the bond market has already entered an easing mode in advance. Crypto market volatility is also highly tied to these macro expectations, as changes in liquidity forecasts are often reflected in prices faster than the policies themselves.

In the coming months, every statement from the Fed will be worth close scrutiny.