Bitcoin hit $93,900 today, marking a new high since November 17. As of this afternoon Beijing time, the price has stabilized around $93,262, up 7.74% in the past 24 hours. It broke through both the $92k and $93k levels in a single day, showing a strong rebound from this week’s low.

There are three short-term catalysts behind this surge:

First, the SEC has reportedly signaled an “innovation exemption” policy for digital asset companies, which is seen as a regulatory easing. Second, Vanguard made a sudden U-turn—allowing its platform to trade ETFs and mutual funds that are primarily invested in cryptocurrencies, lowering the entry threshold. Finally, on the macro front, the market is widely betting that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut at its December 10 meeting, fueling expectations of increased liquidity.

But to be honest, the current market sentiment is quite delicate. While prices have risen, multiple data points are reminding us not to be overly optimistic:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of just $59 million on Tuesday, which industry insiders have described as “weak.” Large amounts of capital remain parked in stablecoin accounts on exchanges, with investors still on the sidelines rather than making substantial investments. More critically, funding rates for perpetual contracts have turned negative—meaning demand for short positions now exceeds that for longs.

Institutions are also largely in agreement: this looks more like a relief rally after a series of declines, not a trend reversal. Many investors may be waiting until after next week’s Fed meeting and for more clarity on interest rates before making decisions.

In summary, this December 3rd rally is more a result of news-driven stimulus and technical recovery; the market fundamentals haven’t undergone a substantive change. “Fragile” is the most fitting keyword for the current situation.